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North Dakota State Senate elections, 2016
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| 2016 North Dakota Senate Elections | |
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| Primary | June 14, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
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| • State legislative elections in 2016 | |
A total of 23 seats out of the 47 seats in the North Dakota State Senate were up for election in 2016. Republicans gained six seats in the November 2016 general election.
North Dakota state senators serve staggered, four-year terms and half of the senate is up for election every two years. Republicans gained seven seats in the chamber after the November 2016 election.
Introduction
Elections for the North Dakota State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election took place on June 14, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was April 11, 2016.
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the North Dakota State Senate:
| North Dakota State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 15 | 9 | |
| Republican Party | 32 | 38 | |
| Total | 47 | 47 | |
Retired incumbents
Three incumbent senators did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents are:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| John Warner | Senate District 4 | |
| Joe Miller | Senate District 10 | |
| Ron Carlisle | Senate District 30 |
2016 election competitiveness
North Dakota sees improvement in general election competition.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well North Dakota performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the North Dakota State Senate, there were 15 Democratic incumbents and 32 Republican incumbents. No incumbents faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There was one incumbent with a primary challenger in the Republican primary.
- In the House, there were 23 Democratic incumbents and 71 Republican incumbents. No state representatives faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were six incumbents with primary challenges taking place in the Republican primary. North Dakota's House uses multi-member districts, so the six primary challenges took place in three districts.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- North Dakota saw a significant increase in the number of districts where both major parties are fielding candidates in the general election. Just 8.7% of seats had only one major party candidate. This compares to 33.3% in 2014, 17.3% in 2012, and 22.2% in 2010.
- Although most districts had general election competition, the number of primaries held in the state was quite low. There were just four primaries held in both chambers. That's 4.4% of districts with primary competition, compared to 17.6% nationally.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in North Dakota can be found below.
List of candidates
General election
| 2016 North Dakota Senate general election candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Other | ||
| 2 | No candidate | David Rust: 8,921 (I) |
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| 4 | Tyler Stafslien: 2,382 | Jordan Kannianen: 4,697 |
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| 6 | David O'Connell: 3,385 (I) | Shawn Vedaa: 4,133 |
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| 8 | No candidate | Howard Anderson: 6,259 (I) |
Hank Tweeten: 2,072 (Ind.) |
| 10 | Quentin Wenzel: 2,352 | Janne Myrdal: 4,246 |
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| 12 | John Grabinger: 3,673 (I) |
Katie Andersen: 2,563 | |
| 14 | Dave Anderson: 1,987 | Jerry Klein: 5,598 (I) |
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| 16 | Tyler Axness: 3,790 (I) | David Clemens: 4,466 |
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| 18 | Constance Triplett: 2,562 (I) | Scott Meyer: 2,983 |
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| 20 | Philip Murphy: 2,717 (I) | Arne Osland: 3,723 |
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| 22 | Steven Allard: 2,615 | Gary Lee: 6,279 (I) |
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| 24 | Larry Robinson: 3,431 (I) |
Eldred Knutson: 3,271 | |
| 26 | Jim Dotzenrod: 3,451 (I) |
Jason Heitkamp: 3,287 | |
| 28 | Dustin David Peyer: 1,250 | Robert Erbele: 6,241 (I) |
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| 30 | Chris Rausch: 2,056 | Diane Larson: 4,975 |
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| 32 | Tiffany Hodge: 2,295 | Dick Dever: 4,360 (I) |
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| 34 | Dave Gipp: 1,994 | Dwight Cook: 5,783 (I) |
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| 36 | No candidate | Kelly Armstrong: 7,020 (I) |
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| 38 | No candidate | David Hogue: 5,904 (I) |
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| 40 | Phil Franklin: 1,224 | Karen Krebsbach: 3,255 (I) |
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| 42 | Mac Schneider: 2,073 (I) | Curt Kreun: 2,281 |
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| 44 | Merrill Piepkorn: 3,733 |
Tim Flakoll: 3,590 (I) | |
| 46 | George B. Sinner: 3,897 (I) | Jim Roers: 3,934 |
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| Notes | • An (I) denotes an incumbent. | ||
| • Candidate lists can change frequently throughout an election season. Ballotpedia staff update this list monthly. To suggest changes, click here to email our State Legislature Project. | |||
Primary election
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the North Dakota State Senate in 2016 was lower than the national average. Out of 23 races in the North Dakota State Senate in 2016, 20 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 25.2 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[2]
| Republican candidates in the North Dakota State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic candidates in 2016. Republicans won 19 races. In the 16 races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 30 percent. Democrats won four races in 2016. In the four races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 6.1 percent. |
| More Republican candidates than Democratic candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. Eight of the 20 contested races in 2016—40 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Five races saw margins of victory that were 5 percent or less. Republicans won five races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less. |
North Dakota State Senate: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 6 R 9.9 percent District 16 R 8.2 percent District 18 R 7.6 percent District 24 D 2.4 percent District 26 D 2.4 percent District 42 R 4.8 percent District 44 D 2.0 percent District 46 R 0.5 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the North Dakota State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was higher than the national average. 13 incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the 10 winning North Dakota State Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 35.3 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Republican incumbents in the North Dakota State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic incumbents. 10 Republican incumbents won re-election. In the seven races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 47.3 percent. Three Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the three races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 7.5 percent. |
North Dakota State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[3] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[3] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 4 6.1 percent 3 7.5 percent 0 0 N/A Republican 19 30.0 percent 10 47.3 percent 3 3 15.8 percent Total 23 25.2 percent 13 35.3 percent 3 3 13.0 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in North Dakota State Senate districts in 2016.
| North Dakota State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 2 | R | Unopposed |
| District 4 | R | 32.7 percent |
| District 6 | R | 10.0 percent |
| District 8 | R | 50.3 percent |
| District 10 | R | 28.7 percent |
| District 12 | D | 17.8 percent |
| District 14 | R | 47.6 percent |
| District 16 | R | 8.2 percent |
| District 18 | R | 7.6 percent |
| District 20 | R | 15.6 percent |
| District 22 | R | 41.2 percent |
| District 24 | D | 2.4 percent |
| District 26 | D | 2.4 percent |
| District 28 | R | 66.6 percent |
| District 30 | R | 41.5 percent |
| District 32 | R | 31.0 percent |
| District 34 | R | 48.7 percent |
| District 36 | R | Unopposed |
| District 38 | R | Unopposed |
| District 40 | R | 45.3 percent |
| District 42 | R | 4.8 percent |
| District 44 | D | 2.0 percent |
| District 46 | R | 0.5 percent |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: North Dakota elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in North Dakota in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| January 1, 2016 | Ballot access | First day for primary candidates to begin circulating candidate petitions | |
| January 4, 2016 | Ballot access | First day for primary candidates to file completed petitions | |
| April 8, 2016 | Ballot access | First day for independent general election candidates to begin circulating petitions | |
| April 11, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for primary candidates to file completed petitions | |
| May 13, 2016 | Campaign finance | Pre-primary statement due | |
| May 24, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for write-in primary candidates for congressional or statewide office to file certificates of write-in candidacy | |
| June 10, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for write-in primary candidates for state legislative office to file certificates of write-in candidacy | |
| June 14, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| September 6, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for independent general election candidates to file completed petitions | |
| October 7, 2016 | Campaign finance | Pre-general statement due | |
| October 18, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for write-in candidates for congressional or statewide office to file certificates of write-in candidacy | |
| November 4, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for write-in candidates for state legislative office to file certificates of write-in candidacy | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| January 31, 2017 | Campaign finance | Year-end statement due | |
| Source: North Dakota Secretary of State, "North Dakota 2016 Election Calendar," accessed June 12, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In four of the 23 seats that were up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of four Republicans were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 19 (82.6%) of the 23 seats up for election.
Primary challenges
One incumbent faced primary competition on June 14. Three incumbents did not seek re-election and another 19 incumbents are advanced past the primary without opposition.
Retired incumbents
Three incumbents did not run for re-election, while 20 ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents, two Republicans and one Democrat, can be found above.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index — the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition and general elections between partisan candidates — showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details North Dakota's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| North Dakota General Assembly 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 18.1% | 6.8% | 66.7% | 30.5 | 20 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in North Dakota in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[4]
| North Dakota State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 42 | $494,138 |
| 2012 | 50 | $359,367 |
| 2010 | 42 | $273,972 |
| 2008 | 19 | $445,898 |
| 2006 | 50 | $230,294 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state senates. The average contributions raised by state senate candidates in 2014 was $148,144. North Dakota, at $11,765 per candidate, is ranked 40 of 42 for state senate chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s senate candidates in 2014.[4][5]
Qualifications
Article 4, Section 5 of the North Dakota Constitution states: "State Senators and Representatives must be, on the day of the election, qualified voters in the district from which they are chosen and a resident of the state for one year preceding election to office."
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory of less than 5 percent are considered highly competitive. Districts that have a margin of victory from 5 to 10 percent are considered mildly competitive.
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in North Dakota," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
