「Independent」を含む日記

■motorcycle insurance canada

Welcome to AIM Insurance, your trusted family-owned and operated insurance brokerage. We have offices in Burlington, Brampton, and Dunnville, proudly serving clients throughout Ontario. We have additional presences across Canada, with locations in Calgary, Edmonton, and Moncton. We're not just another insurance provider – we're your neighbours, friends, and family. Our mission is clear: to be your broker of choice.

At AIM Insurance, the power of personalized service is paramount. We know that insurance is more than just policies and premiums; it's about protecting what matters most to you. Our team is dedicated to going above and beyond to ensure you receive unmatched experience, dedication, knowledge, and service. We aim to fight for the very best coverage, claim representation, and rates, without compromising on the quality of coverage you deserve.

We're an independent brokerage, and we take pride in our freedom to serve you better. Without the restrictions of corporate structures or call centres, we have the flexibility to focus on what truly matters: delivering exceptional service tailored to your unique needs.

Among our various affiliations, AIM Insurance is honoured to be the exclusive insurance provider for the Canadian Motorcycle Association (CMA). This partnership allows us to offer exclusive insurance programs and benefits to CMA members, combining our passion for motorcycles with our insurance expertise.

AIM Insurance proudly sponsors CSBK (Canadian Superbike Championship), supporting the exciting world of motorcycle racing. We are also the trusted insurance provider for Super Sonic Race School, an organization that fosters the growth and development of young racers. Through these partnerships, we celebrate the thrill of motorsports while ensuring the safety and protection of participants and their valuable assets.

Thank you for choosing AIM Insurance. We look forward to serving you and protecting what matters most to you and your family.

Sincerely,

Dan R. Avon

Top 10 Insurance Broker Under 40 for 2017

https://theaim.ca/

Permalink | 記事への反応(0) | 10:26

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■anond:20250216152548

”⼆年少々前に、イギリス政府はアダム・スミス・コナーを起訴しました。”

ちなみに22年前のunborn son.を「生まれぬ息子」と訳すのはいかがなものか。

英国の退役軍人であるアダム・スミスコナー氏（51歳）は、2022年11月、イングランド南部ボーンマスの中絶クリニック近くで数分間黙祷を捧げた際、公共空間保護命令（ Public Spaces Protection Order PSPO）に違反したとして起訴されました。

　ttps://adfinternational.org/en-gb/news/guilty-army-vet-convicted-for-praying-silently-near-abortion-facility

このPSPOは、2022年10月にボーンマス・クライストチャーチ・プール（BCP）評議会によって導入され、中絶サービスに関連する問題について、抗議や賛否の表明を禁止するものでした。”

PSPOの全文はこちら ttps://www.bcpcouncil.gov.uk/Assets/Crime-safety-and-emergencies/PSPOs/Ophir-Road-and-surrounding-area-Public-Spaces-Protection-Order-PSPO.pdf

スミスコナー氏は、22年前に自身が関与した中絶で失った息子のために祈っていたと述べています。

ttps://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/bournemouth-christchurch-uk-parliament-army-british-b1188699.html

ttps://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/christian-bournemouth-christchurch-uk-parliament-army-b2631603.html

2024年10月16日、プール治安判事裁判所は彼に有罪判決を下し、執行猶予付きの判決と9,000ポンド（約170万円）の裁判費用の支払いを命じました。

https://www.christiantoday.co.jp/articles/34158/20241023/man-convicted-for-praying-silently-near-abortion-clinic.htm

クリスチャントゥデイ（日本）2024年10月23日

中絶クリニックの緩衝地帯で黙祷ささげた男性に有罪判決　英国

”スミスコナーさんを弁護したキリスト教法曹団体「ＡＤＦインターナショナル」英国支部（英語）のジェレマイア・イグヌボル上級法律顧問は、「非常に大きな影響を持つ法的転換点」だとして、次のように述べた。

「今日、ある男性が有罪判決を受けましたが、それはイングランドの公の通りで彼が考えたこと、つまり神への祈りの内容を理由としたものでした。言論や思想の自由という基本的自由をないがしろにするという点において、英国はこれ以上ないほど落ちぶれてしまいました。私たちは判決をよく検討し、控訴するかどうかを検討しています。人権は全ての人に与えられているものであり、中絶に対する考え方とは関係ありません」”

”Human rights are for all people – no matter their view on abortion.”

（）

Permalink | 記事への反応(1) | 15:42

ツイートシェア

■Chatgptが答えた異星人の存在可能性とのそのロジック

Please consider the histroy of humanity from biological perpsecitve and current known fact in nearby universe, which expo-planet (from the Sol system perspective) is most likely to have civlizaed society? Please add percentage next to it in the chart

ChatGPT

Reasoned about exoplanet civilization likelihoodを28 秒行う

Evaluating planetary prospects

OK, I’m looking at the likelihood of a civilized society on an exoplanet within our Solar System. I’ll consider biological history and current space knowledge, aiming to identify the most promising candidate.

Identifying potential candidates

I'm considering exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1e, which might suggest they are within or observed from our Solar System.

Assessing potential candidates

I’m evaluating Proxima Centauri b, Barnard's Star, LHS 1140, and TRAPPIST-1, focusing on their habitable zones and available data. The Drake equation might help estimate their civilized society likelihoods.

Identifying promising exoplanets

I’m noting key exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1, which have Earth-like characteristics and are in habitable zones. This narrows down the potential candidates for advanced civilizations.

Assessing habitable zones

I'm gathering info on planets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1, considering factors like magnetic fields, atmospheres, and proximity to G-type stars for their potential to support advanced civilizations.

Evaluating exoplanet prospects

I'm noting that Proxima Centauri b, despite being close and around a red dwarf star, might support life if it has a magnetic field and atmosphere. This makes me think about its potential.

Charting probabilities

I'm estimating civilization probabilities for exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e, using speculative percentages based on the Drake equation and the lack of evidence for intelligent life.

Charting speculative odds

I'm crafting a chart with exoplanet names and civilization likelihood percentages, grounded in the long timeline of life's evolution, despite the speculative nature of these figures.

Identifying exoplanet contenders

I’m evaluating exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b, TRAPPIST-1 e, and Kepler-186f, considering their star types and distances, to gauge their potential for supporting advanced civilizations from our solar system's viewpoint.

Weighing proximity and observation

I'm leaning towards Proxima Centauri b due to its closeness and observational potential, despite concerns about its flare star dynamics. TRAPPIST-1 e, f, or g are also worth considering.

Revisiting exoplanet options

I'm focusing on exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b, Ross 128 b, LHS 1140 b, TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, and K2-18b, aiming to chart their likelihood of hosting a civilized society based on current knowledge.

Assessing exoplanet potentials

I'm gathering speculative probabilities for exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, using the Drake equation and current understanding, to better estimate their chances of hosting a civilized society.

Refining speculative probabilities

I’m refining speculative probabilities for exoplanets, including Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, to estimate their chances of hosting a civilized society, considering Earth's long biological history.

Refining odds

I'm considering the astronomical timeline for intelligent life on Earth, leading me to assign even lower speculative odds for exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e.

Clarifying speculative nature

I’m crafting a simplified chart with arbitrary percentages, clearly noting the speculative nature and lack of scientific data, while considering the target audience's basic understanding of the topic.

Mapping out speculative odds

I’m charting arbitrary percentages for exoplanets, clarifying their speculative nature, and ensuring the data is accessible for young audiences with minimal scientific detail.

Crafting a chart

I’m creating a markdown table with speculative percentages for the likelihood of civilized life on exoplanets, emphasizing their purely theoretical nature and considering the understanding level of an 8-year-old.

Integrating speculative analysis

I’m mapping out a markdown chart with speculative percentages for the likelihood of a civilized society on exoplanets, mindful of the complexity and simplifying for an 8-year-old's understanding.

Assessing likelihoods

I’m piecing together markdown for exoplanets, noting Proxima Centauri b's reduced civilized life chance due to the red dwarf's activity. This inclusion highlights the speculative nature of the analysis.

Piecing together speculative odds

I’m detailing a markdown chart for audience-friendly exoplanet likelihoods, considering environmental challenges and adding a disclaimer about the speculative nature and lack of evidence.

Piecing together

I’m leaning towards Proxima Centauri b for its proximity and silent star, but I’ll add a speculative chart ranking nearby exoplanets, noting their advanced civilizations' hypothetical likelihood.

Assessing civilization probabilities

I'm emphasizing the slow emergence of intelligent life on Earth, which suggests that the odds of any habitable planet developing a complex civilization might be as low as a few percent.

Below is a very speculative chart that—based on what we know about Earth’s long, winding path from simple life to a “civilized society” and our limited observations of nearby exoplanets—gives some fun, made‑up percentage chances for a few of our best candidate exoplanets. Remember: Scientists have not yet found any proof of life (let alone advanced civilizations) on any exoplanet. These numbers are just playful estimates to help you think about the ideas!

Speculative Chances of Finding an Advanced Civilization on Nearby Exoplanets

Exoplanet Estimated Likelihood of a Civilized Society

Proxima Centauri b ~2%

TRAPPIST-1 e ~1.5%

TRAPPIST-1 f ~1%

TRAPPIST-1 g ~1%

LHS 1140 b ~0.5%

How Did We (Very Roughly) Guess These Numbers?

Earth’s Example:

On Earth, life began as simple single‑celled organisms and took billions of years to evolve into a species that built complex societies. This long journey suggests that—even if a planet is in the “habitable zone” (where liquid water could exist)—developing an advanced, civilized society might be rare.

Nearby Exoplanets:

Proxima Centauri b:

This is the closest exoplanet to us. Even though its star (Proxima Centauri) is a red dwarf that sometimes sends out strong flares (which might harm life), its closeness makes it one of our most interesting candidates. That’s why we give it a slightly higher guess (~2%).

TRAPPIST-1 System (e, f, g):

These planets are part of a group orbiting a very cool star. Their environments might be challenging (for example, they could be tidally locked, meaning one side always faces the star), so the chance of a complex, advanced civilization might be a bit lower.

LHS 1140 b:

This planet is promising in some ways but is a little farther away and around a dimmer star, so our playful estimate is even lower.

A Final Note

All of these percentages are extremely rough guesses based on what little we understand about the conditions for life and intelligence. Scientists use ideas like the Drake Equation to think about these chances—but until we have concrete evidence, these numbers remain just for fun and imagination.

Enjoy exploring these ideas—and remember, space is full of mysteries waiting to be discovered!

あなた:

Please examine the Drake Equation itself and see if this euqation is acculate or more opition in the equation you will use

ChatGPT

Reasoned about the Drake Equationを6 秒行う

re-examining the Drake Equation

evaluating the Drake Equation's value

Clarifying the Drake Equation

OK, let me see. The Drake Equation isn't a precise formula; it's more of a guiding heuristic that tackles numerous uncertainties regarding extraterrestrial civilizations.

Assessing the Drake Equation

Thinking through the Drake Equation, I’m evaluating its conceptual nature, its uncertain parameters, and its criticism to conclude on its reliability as an accurate predictive model.

Understanding the Drake Equation

I’m mapping out the Drake Equation as a conceptual guide, detailing its parameters, which are often based on estimates or opinions, to evaluate its reliability for predicting extraterrestrial civilizations.

The Drake Equation is a famous formula that was created to help scientists think about the many factors involved in estimating the number of detectable extraterrestrial civilizations in our galaxy. However, when we look at the equation closely, we see that it is more of a conceptual framework or heuristic tool than a precise, predictive formula. Let’s break down why:

The Drake Equation

The equation is usually written as:

𝑁

=

𝑅

∗

×

𝑓

𝑝

×

𝑛

𝑒

×

𝑓

𝑙

×

𝑓

𝑖

×

𝑓

𝑐

×

𝐿

N=R

∗

×f

p

​

×n

e

​

×f

l

​

×f

i

​

×f

c

​

×L

Where:

𝑅

∗

R

∗

: The average rate of star formation per year in our galaxy.

𝑓

𝑝

f

p

​

: The fraction of those stars that have planetary systems.

𝑛

𝑒

n

e

​

: The average number of planets that could potentially support life per star with planets.

𝑓

𝑙

f

l

​

: The fraction of those planets where life actually develops.

𝑓

𝑖

f

i

​

: The fraction of planets with life where intelligent life evolves.

𝑓

𝑐

f

c

​

: The fraction of civilizations that develop technology that releases detectable signals into space.

𝐿

L: The length of time such civilizations release detectable signals.

Why the Drake Equation Is More of a Guideline Than a Precise Formula

Uncertain Inputs:

Well-Known Parameters:

Some factors, like

𝑅

∗

R

∗

(star formation rate) and

𝑓

𝑝

f

p

​

(fraction of stars with planets), have become better known through modern astronomy.

Highly Speculative Factors:

The parameters related to the development of life and intelligence—

𝑓

𝑙

f

l

​

,

𝑓

𝑖

f

i

​

,

𝑓

𝑐

f

c

​

, and

𝐿

L—are based on very limited data. For example, Earth is the only planet we know where life has developed, so we have no way to compare or derive a statistically robust estimate for these factors. This means that the values chosen for these parameters are largely subjective estimates or educated guesses.

Wide Ranges of Possible Values:

Because many of these factors are not well-constrained, if you change one of the more uncertain parameters even slightly, the final estimate for

𝑁

N (the number of civilizations) can vary by many orders of magnitude. This wide range shows that the equation can lead to very different outcomes based on personal or theoretical assumptions.

Heuristic, Not Predictive:

The Drake Equation was never meant to provide a precise answer. Instead, it serves as a way to organize our thinking about what conditions might be necessary for the development of extraterrestrial civilizations. It encourages discussion about the relative importance of different factors and highlights where our scientific knowledge is limited.

Is the Drake Equation Accurate or More Opinion-Based?

Accurate?

In the sense of being a strict mathematical model with well-defined inputs and predictable outputs, the Drake Equation is not accurate. Its accuracy is limited by the extreme uncertainties in several of its key parameters.

Opinion-Based?

Many of the terms in the equation, especially those concerning the evolution of life and intelligence, are based on opinion, interpretation, and the single example of Earth. Therefore, while the structure of the equation is logical, the numbers you put into it (and hence the final result) are often more reflective of our current opinions and assumptions than of robust empirical data.

Conclusion

The Drake Equation is a valuable tool for framing the question of extraterrestrial life. It helps scientists and enthusiasts break down a complex problem into smaller, more manageable questions. However, because several of its factors are highly uncertain and subject to personal interpretation, it is more of a conceptual guide—or even a way to stimulate discussion—than a formula that provides a definitive, accurate prediction of the number of extraterrestrial civilizations.

In summary, while the Drake Equation is useful for thinking about the various factors that might lead to the emergence of a civilization, its outputs should be taken as highly speculative estimates rather than precise measurements.

あなた:

Please also consider the possiblities of non-human intelligent emrgencing from the long history of Sol system and nearby planets and see if there is any possiblites that in one time intelligent life emerged in nearby planets and see this to the equation

ChatGPT

Reasoned about non-human intelligence and the Drake Equationを19 秒行う

Evaluating non-human intelligence

I'm thinking about the potential for non-human intelligent life forms in the Sol system and neighboring planets, and how this might factor into the equation.

Piecing together possibilities

I'm thinking about how to integrate the emergence of non-human intelligent life, possibly on Mars or Europa, into the Drake Equation for the Sol system and neighboring planets.

Reflecting on potential

It's interesting to think about the hypothesis of intelligent life emerging on Mars or Venus, though Earth remains the only known life-supporting planet in the solar system.

Considering other realms

I'm examining if intelligent life could have emerged on planets like Mars, Venus, or Europa, and how this possibility aligns with the predictions of the Drake Equation.

Analyzing parallel evolution

Hmm, I’m thinking about how non-human intelligent life on Mars or Venus could intersect with the assumptions of the Drake Equation, which seems to focus solely on Earth-based evolution.

Evaluating life exploration

I’m piecing together the hypothesis of non-human, advanced, intelligent life in the solar system. Mars, Venus, and Titan present challenges, but Europa and Enceladus might harbor microbial life.

Adapting the equ Permalink | 記事への反応(0) | 21:12

ツイートシェア

■Chatgptが答えた異星人の存在可能性とのそのロジック

Please consider the histroy of humanity from biological perpsecitve and current known fact in nearby universe, which expo-planet (from the Sol system perspective) is most likely to have civlizaed society? Please add percentage next to it in the chart

ChatGPT

Reasoned about exoplanet civilization likelihoodを28 秒行う

Evaluating planetary prospects

OK, I’m looking at the likelihood of a civilized society on an exoplanet within our Solar System. I’ll consider biological history and current space knowledge, aiming to identify the most promising candidate.

Identifying potential candidates

I'm considering exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1e, which might suggest they are within or observed from our Solar System.

Assessing potential candidates

I’m evaluating Proxima Centauri b, Barnard's Star, LHS 1140, and TRAPPIST-1, focusing on their habitable zones and available data. The Drake equation might help estimate their civilized society likelihoods.

Identifying promising exoplanets

I’m noting key exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1, which have Earth-like characteristics and are in habitable zones. This narrows down the potential candidates for advanced civilizations.

Assessing habitable zones

I'm gathering info on planets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1, considering factors like magnetic fields, atmospheres, and proximity to G-type stars for their potential to support advanced civilizations.

Evaluating exoplanet prospects

I'm noting that Proxima Centauri b, despite being close and around a red dwarf star, might support life if it has a magnetic field and atmosphere. This makes me think about its potential.

Charting probabilities

I'm estimating civilization probabilities for exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e, using speculative percentages based on the Drake equation and the lack of evidence for intelligent life.

Charting speculative odds

I'm crafting a chart with exoplanet names and civilization likelihood percentages, grounded in the long timeline of life's evolution, despite the speculative nature of these figures.

Identifying exoplanet contenders

I’m evaluating exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b, TRAPPIST-1 e, and Kepler-186f, considering their star types and distances, to gauge their potential for supporting advanced civilizations from our solar system's viewpoint.

Weighing proximity and observation

I'm leaning towards Proxima Centauri b due to its closeness and observational potential, despite concerns about its flare star dynamics. TRAPPIST-1 e, f, or g are also worth considering.

Revisiting exoplanet options

I'm focusing on exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b, Ross 128 b, LHS 1140 b, TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, and K2-18b, aiming to chart their likelihood of hosting a civilized society based on current knowledge.

Assessing exoplanet potentials

I'm gathering speculative probabilities for exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, using the Drake equation and current understanding, to better estimate their chances of hosting a civilized society.

Refining speculative probabilities

I’m refining speculative probabilities for exoplanets, including Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, to estimate their chances of hosting a civilized society, considering Earth's long biological history.

Refining odds

I'm considering the astronomical timeline for intelligent life on Earth, leading me to assign even lower speculative odds for exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e.

Clarifying speculative nature

I’m crafting a simplified chart with arbitrary percentages, clearly noting the speculative nature and lack of scientific data, while considering the target audience's basic understanding of the topic.

Mapping out speculative odds

I’m charting arbitrary percentages for exoplanets, clarifying their speculative nature, and ensuring the data is accessible for young audiences with minimal scientific detail.

Crafting a chart

I’m creating a markdown table with speculative percentages for the likelihood of civilized life on exoplanets, emphasizing their purely theoretical nature and considering the understanding level of an 8-year-old.

Integrating speculative analysis

I’m mapping out a markdown chart with speculative percentages for the likelihood of a civilized society on exoplanets, mindful of the complexity and simplifying for an 8-year-old's understanding.

Assessing likelihoods

I’m piecing together markdown for exoplanets, noting Proxima Centauri b's reduced civilized life chance due to the red dwarf's activity. This inclusion highlights the speculative nature of the analysis.

Piecing together speculative odds

I’m detailing a markdown chart for audience-friendly exoplanet likelihoods, considering environmental challenges and adding a disclaimer about the speculative nature and lack of evidence.

Piecing together

I’m leaning towards Proxima Centauri b for its proximity and silent star, but I’ll add a speculative chart ranking nearby exoplanets, noting their advanced civilizations' hypothetical likelihood.

Assessing civilization probabilities

I'm emphasizing the slow emergence of intelligent life on Earth, which suggests that the odds of any habitable planet developing a complex civilization might be as low as a few percent.

Below is a very speculative chart that—based on what we know about Earth’s long, winding path from simple life to a “civilized society” and our limited observations of nearby exoplanets—gives some fun, made‑up percentage chances for a few of our best candidate exoplanets. Remember: Scientists have not yet found any proof of life (let alone advanced civilizations) on any exoplanet. These numbers are just playful estimates to help you think about the ideas!

Speculative Chances of Finding an Advanced Civilization on Nearby Exoplanets

Exoplanet Estimated Likelihood of a Civilized Society

Proxima Centauri b ~2%

TRAPPIST-1 e ~1.5%

TRAPPIST-1 f ~1%

TRAPPIST-1 g ~1%

LHS 1140 b ~0.5%

How Did We (Very Roughly) Guess These Numbers?

Earth’s Example:

On Earth, life began as simple single‑celled organisms and took billions of years to evolve into a species that built complex societies. This long journey suggests that—even if a planet is in the “habitable zone” (where liquid water could exist)—developing an advanced, civilized society might be rare.

Nearby Exoplanets:

Proxima Centauri b:

This is the closest exoplanet to us. Even though its star (Proxima Centauri) is a red dwarf that sometimes sends out strong flares (which might harm life), its closeness makes it one of our most interesting candidates. That’s why we give it a slightly higher guess (~2%).

TRAPPIST-1 System (e, f, g):

These planets are part of a group orbiting a very cool star. Their environments might be challenging (for example, they could be tidally locked, meaning one side always faces the star), so the chance of a complex, advanced civilization might be a bit lower.

LHS 1140 b:

This planet is promising in some ways but is a little farther away and around a dimmer star, so our playful estimate is even lower.

A Final Note

All of these percentages are extremely rough guesses based on what little we understand about the conditions for life and intelligence. Scientists use ideas like the Drake Equation to think about these chances—but until we have concrete evidence, these numbers remain just for fun and imagination.

Enjoy exploring these ideas—and remember, space is full of mysteries waiting to be discovered!

あなた:

Please examine the Drake Equation itself and see if this euqation is acculate or more opition in the equation you will use

ChatGPT

Reasoned about the Drake Equationを6 秒行う

re-examining the Drake Equation

evaluating the Drake Equation's value

Clarifying the Drake Equation

OK, let me see. The Drake Equation isn't a precise formula; it's more of a guiding heuristic that tackles numerous uncertainties regarding extraterrestrial civilizations.

Assessing the Drake Equation

Thinking through the Drake Equation, I’m evaluating its conceptual nature, its uncertain parameters, and its criticism to conclude on its reliability as an accurate predictive model.

Understanding the Drake Equation

I’m mapping out the Drake Equation as a conceptual guide, detailing its parameters, which are often based on estimates or opinions, to evaluate its reliability for predicting extraterrestrial civilizations.

The Drake Equation is a famous formula that was created to help scientists think about the many factors involved in estimating the number of detectable extraterrestrial civilizations in our galaxy. However, when we look at the equation closely, we see that it is more of a conceptual framework or heuristic tool than a precise, predictive formula. Let’s break down why:

The Drake Equation

The equation is usually written as:

𝑁

=

𝑅

∗

×

𝑓

𝑝

×

𝑛

𝑒

×

𝑓

𝑙

×

𝑓

𝑖

×

𝑓

𝑐

×

𝐿

N=R

∗

×f

p

​

×n

e

​

×f

l

​

×f

i

​

×f

c

​

×L

Where:

𝑅

∗

R

∗

: The average rate of star formation per year in our galaxy.

𝑓

𝑝

f

p

​

: The fraction of those stars that have planetary systems.

𝑛

𝑒

n

e

​

: The average number of planets that could potentially support life per star with planets.

𝑓

𝑙

f

l

​

: The fraction of those planets where life actually develops.

𝑓

𝑖

f

i

​

: The fraction of planets with life where intelligent life evolves.

𝑓

𝑐

f

c

​

: The fraction of civilizations that develop technology that releases detectable signals into space.

𝐿

L: The length of time such civilizations release detectable signals.

Why the Drake Equation Is More of a Guideline Than a Precise Formula

Uncertain Inputs:

Well-Known Parameters:

Some factors, like

𝑅

∗

R

∗

(star formation rate) and

𝑓

𝑝

f

p

​

(fraction of stars with planets), have become better known through modern astronomy.

Highly Speculative Factors:

The parameters related to the development of life and intelligence—

𝑓

𝑙

f

l

​

,

𝑓

𝑖

f

i

​

,

𝑓

𝑐

f

c

​

, and

𝐿

L—are based on very limited data. For example, Earth is the only planet we know where life has developed, so we have no way to compare or derive a statistically robust estimate for these factors. This means that the values chosen for these parameters are largely subjective estimates or educated guesses.

Wide Ranges of Possible Values:

Because many of these factors are not well-constrained, if you change one of the more uncertain parameters even slightly, the final estimate for

𝑁

N (the number of civilizations) can vary by many orders of magnitude. This wide range shows that the equation can lead to very different outcomes based on personal or theoretical assumptions.

Heuristic, Not Predictive:

The Drake Equation was never meant to provide a precise answer. Instead, it serves as a way to organize our thinking about what conditions might be necessary for the development of extraterrestrial civilizations. It encourages discussion about the relative importance of different factors and highlights where our scientific knowledge is limited.

Is the Drake Equation Accurate or More Opinion-Based?

Accurate?

In the sense of being a strict mathematical model with well-defined inputs and predictable outputs, the Drake Equation is not accurate. Its accuracy is limited by the extreme uncertainties in several of its key parameters.

Opinion-Based?

Many of the terms in the equation, especially those concerning the evolution of life and intelligence, are based on opinion, interpretation, and the single example of Earth. Therefore, while the structure of the equation is logical, the numbers you put into it (and hence the final result) are often more reflective of our current opinions and assumptions than of robust empirical data.

Conclusion

The Drake Equation is a valuable tool for framing the question of extraterrestrial life. It helps scientists and enthusiasts break down a complex problem into smaller, more manageable questions. However, because several of its factors are highly uncertain and subject to personal interpretation, it is more of a conceptual guide—or even a way to stimulate discussion—than a formula that provides a definitive, accurate prediction of the number of extraterrestrial civilizations.

In summary, while the Drake Equation is useful for thinking about the various factors that might lead to the emergence of a civilization, its outputs should be taken as highly speculative estimates rather than precise measurements.

あなた:

Please also consider the possiblities of non-human intelligent emrgencing from the long history of Sol system and nearby planets and see if there is any possiblites that in one time intelligent life emerged in nearby planets and see this to the equation

ChatGPT

Reasoned about non-human intelligence and the Drake Equationを19 秒行う

Evaluating non-human intelligence

I'm thinking about the potential for non-human intelligent life forms in the Sol system and neighboring planets, and how this might factor into the equation.

Piecing together possibilities

I'm thinking about how to integrate the emergence of non-human intelligent life, possibly on Mars or Europa, into the Drake Equation for the Sol system and neighboring planets.

Reflecting on potential

It's interesting to think about the hypothesis of intelligent life emerging on Mars or Venus, though Earth remains the only known life-supporting planet in the solar system.

Considering other realms

I'm examining if intelligent life could have emerged on planets like Mars, Venus, or Europa, and how this possibility aligns with the predictions of the Drake Equation.

Analyzing parallel evolution

Hmm, I’m thinking about how non-human intelligent life on Mars or Venus could intersect with the assumptions of the Drake Equation, which seems to focus solely on Earth-based evolution.

Evaluating life exploration

I’m piecing together the hypothesis of non-human, advanced, intelligent life in the solar system. Mars, Venus, and Titan present challenges, but Europa and Enceladus might harbor microbial life.

Adapting the equ Permalink | 記事への反応(0) | 21:12

ツイートシェア

■国連、日本アニメは「労働搾取」 ←これ

誰もソースを貼らないから調べたよ

報道機関ならちゃんと調べてくれよ

ソース:　

Visit to Japan - Report of the Working Group on the issue of human rights and transnational corporations and other business enterprises

• UNITED NATIONS HUMAN RIGHTS
• (PDF)

指摘箇所

The Working Group observed deeply troubling issues within the media and entertainment industry, especially in the idol and animation sector. The animation market in Japan has seen a significant increase in profits, reaching 2.74 trillion yen (approximately $20 billion).87 But despite this growth, the annual starting salaries of animators stand at a mere 1.5 million yen (roughly $10,000).88 This disparity is particularly worrying considering that, in 2023, approximately 30.8 per cent of those employed in the industry worked as freelancers or independent contractors, who were reportedly not receiving protection under the current labour laws.89 This enables excessively long working hours and perpetuates unfair subcontracting relationships. However, animation production companies, along with their subcontractors, face no penalties. Furthermore, creators often sign contracts that inadequately protect their intellectual property rights, creating an environment ripe for exploitation.

Combined with a major labour shortage, it is imperative that businesses in this sector, including anime production committees, address these issues and exercise leverage to enhance decent work for animators and prevent the potential collapse of this industry.

作業部会はメディアとエンターテインメント産業、特にアイドルとアニメーションの分野で深い問題を観測した。日本のアニメ市場は大幅な増益を遂げ、2兆7,400億円（約200億ドル）に達している[87]。しかしこの成長にもかかわらず、アニメーターの初任給はわずか150万円（約1万ドル）にすぎない[88]。この格差は2023年時点で、この業界で雇用されている人々の約30.8%がフリーランサーまたは独立請負業者として働いており、彼らは現行の労働法の下で保護を受けていないと報告されていることを考慮すれば特に憂慮すべきことである[89]。そのため過剰な長時間労働が可能になり、不公正な下請け構造が蔓延している。しかしアニメ制作会社は下請け業者とともに罰則を受けることはない。さらにクリエイターは知的財産権の保護が不十分な契約を結ぶことが多く、搾取されやすい環境を作り出している。

大幅な労働力不足と相まって、アニメ製作委員会を含むこの分野の企業はこれらの問題に対処し以下を実現するため影響力を行使することが不可欠である。

アニメーターの decent work (意味：働きがいのある人間らしい仕事）を強化し、この産業の崩壊を防ぐために。

• [87] 日本動画協会 Anime Industry Report 2022 Summary
• [88] コンテンツ産業を支える フリーランスのあり方について
• [89] Ibid

注意：

• 上記の数字は孫引きの孫引きになっている

「経済産業省 映画産業の制作現場に関するアンケート調査結果」 と　「アニメーション制作者実態調査報告書2019」　の孫引き

映画産業と混じっていることと、古い調査結果（5年前）であることは注意が必要

元ソース

• アニメーション制作者実態調査 報告書2023

文化庁より委託をされた文化庁令和４年度メディア芸術連携基盤等整備推進事業の 調査研究

文化庁による古い調査結果を国連が孫引きして日本政府が今頃慌てているよくわかんない構図

• アニメーション制作者 実態調査2023(PDF)（最新）
• アニメーション制作者 実態調査2019(PDF) （←国連が孫引きした方）

国連の報告よりも元ソースを見た方が詳しいし正確。年収は p46~ だけど全部読んだ方が良い

Permalink | 記事への反応(1) | 12:03

ツイートシェア

■ようやく終戦だね

JDヴァンス

トランプがロシア人、ウクライナ人、ヨーロッパ人と会い、こう言う。

「おまえらは平和的な解決策がどうあるべきかを話し合う必要がある」と。

そして、それはおそらく現在のロシアとウクライナの境界線に近い形になるだろう。

それは非武装地帯のようになるだろう。

強力に要塞化され、ロシアが再び侵攻しないようにする。

ウクライナは独立した主権を維持し、ロシアはウクライナから中立の保証を受ける。

ウクライナはNATOにも他の同盟機関にも加盟しない。

By: JD Vance

So I think it goes like this:

Trump sits down, says to the Russians, to the Ukrainians, to the Europeans, you guys need to figure out what a peaceful settlement looks like.

And it will probably look roughly the same as the current dividing line between Russia and Ukraine.

It will become like a demilitarized zone.

It will be strongly fortified so that the Russians do not invade again.

Ukraine retains its independent sovereignty.

Russia receives a guarantee of neutrality from Ukraine, it does not join NATO, it does not join any allied institutions.

Permalink | 記事への反応(0) | 17:00

ツイートシェア

■anond:20240814222300

ちゃんとindependentですか？

Permalink | 記事への反応(0) | 22:23

ツイートシェア

■[イ●ラ●教][コ●ラ●][シ●リ●ア]

婚約6歳、結婚9歳

https://x.com/egodissolution1/status/1308040222836363266

6歳で当時53歳だった●●●●●と婚約して9歳で結婚式

w.wiki/AjMa

.

イ●ラ●教

コ●ラ●　4:34　従わない妻は●て

コ●ラ●　9:5　あなた方はどこであれ、多神教徒を見つけ次第●しなさい

コ●ラ●　34:33　われは不信心な者の首に●をかける

コ●ラ●　47:4　あなた方が不信心な人とまみえるときは、かれらの首を●ちなさい。

x.com/sakkhapp5/status/1893145105550197009

.

コ●ラ●焼却の被告が判決目前に射殺、スウェーデン　容疑者5人逮捕

jp.reuters.com/world/europe/A5NTORCP7BNAJPBRDN3HUSNC4Q-2025-01-30/

悪魔の詩訳者殺人事件 - Wikipedia

1990年（平成2年）にサルマン・ラシュディの小説『悪魔の詩』を日本語訳している。

1989年2月にイランの最高指導者、ルーホッラー・ホメイニーは、

同書が反イ●ラ●的であるとして、

ラシュディや発行に関わった者などに対する死刑を宣告するフ●ト●を発令していたため、

事件直後からイ●ラ●教との関係が取り沙汰されていた。

同性愛者だと公言した「世界初の」イ●ラ●教指導者、殺害される　南アフリカ

www.bbc.com/japanese/articles/c99y91pj805o

.

北海道がイ●ラ●との共生社会を進めてとんでもないことになっているな。

これは海外ではなく、この日本で起きていることを多くの日本人は理解した方がいい。

x.com/Parsonalsecret/status/1854507023452537130

東京で礼拝のために長蛇を作るイ●ラ●教徒たちを、海外のイ●ラ●教徒たちが絶賛

x.com/roaneatan/status/1803925802293301592

とうとう、日本でも公道でやりだした。

x.com/qsfkbwIhuWLhnjI/status/1851049212949262807

多いところでは30人学級のうち10人が中東系外国人の子。

日本語は全くわからない。

先生や他の日本人の子とはコミュニケーションが取れない。

中略

PTAの間で外国人児童は豚肉NGの為、

給食メニューから豚肉を排除し

ハラル食品にしてほしいとの提案があるが、

現状は断っている。

x.com/moronojapan/status/1851998113369936202

ヨーロッパでは、

敬虔なイ●ラ●教徒の夫が、

妻の治療中に

医師が顔と手を露出させたことに腹を立てた。

結局、医師は顔が血まみれになるまで

モハメッドに殴られました…。

それは合理的だと思いますか？

x.com/fdsa753159/status/1851864261200380005

セルビア国立博物館にある1595年の絵画。

セルビア正教会司教が、イ●ラ●勢力に皮を剥がれるところ。

イ●ラ●教への改宗を拒否したキリスト教徒に、当時一般的に行われていたという

x.com/JapanLobby/status/1884084884857303076

「イ●ラ●教徒が少数派の場合、

彼らは少数派の権利を非常に気にしますが、

イ●ラ●教徒が多数派の場合、

少数派の権利は存在しません。」

ウィンストン・チャーチル

x.com/smilyhappycat1/status/1743105720923664623

インドネシアでは、

イ●ラ●教徒は、キリスト教徒であっても、

ラマダンを守らない者を追い詰めます。

x.com/CrocoFranc/status/1898647496756269338

イ●ラ●教徒と共生できますか？！児童婚？土葬？

児童婚（サウジアラビアやイラクでは9歳で成人となることを法制化しており、結婚させられる少女たちがいる）

president.jp/articles/-/27494

イエメンで8歳の「花嫁」が初夜に死亡、子宮破裂で

jp.reuters.com/article/world/8-idUSTYE98B069/

アフガニスタン、55歳の白髪頭の男性の妻として2,000ドルで売られた9歳のパフワナ。

家計を支えるために1,000ドルで売られる9歳のリタネと4歳のゼイトン。

70歳の隣人に借金のカタに売られた10歳の娘マガル。

マガルは老人の妻にされたら自殺すると言います

x.com/amisweetheart/status/1830484709098537036

9歳のアフガニスタンの少女が自分の家族によって売られ、50歳のイ●ラ●教徒の男性との結婚を強制された。

彼女が感じている痛みと恐怖を表現する唯一の方法は叫び声を上げることだ。

これはシ●リ●ア法だ！

x.com/realMaalouf/status/1835766030507077835

年老いたイ●ラ●教徒は、結婚させるために幼い子供を買う。子供を奴隷にする。これがイ●ラ●教だ

x.com/RadioGenoa/status/1854884116979707961

イラン人男性が「名誉殺人」後に妻の首を持ち運ぶ姿を捉えた忌まわしいビデオ

nypost.com/2022/02/08/iranian-man-carries-wifes-head-after-honor-killing/

無力な女性を石打ちにする

x.com/thevoicetruth1/status/1829966209191936242

女性に対する「名誉に基づく暴力」の様子

x.com/JapanLobby/status/1830384513207390464

少女への暴力

x.com/martytaka777/status/1831610169010352266

「働く女性は同僚男性に母乳を5口飲ませよ」

www.dailyshincho.jp/article/2018/03010630/?all=1

コ●ラ●　4:34従わない妻は●て

https://tinyurl.com/mr5h2us3

(技能実習 OR 特定技能 OR 育成就労)イ●ラ●教

https://tinyurl.com/seiyounojisi

インドネシアからの労働者10万人計画が進行中だが

キルギスからの労働者受け入れも進行中だ。

キルギスは人口の75%がイ●ラ●教徒だが、日本政府は既に協力覚書を締結している。

なぜかイ●ラ●教徒受け入れに躊躇しない日本政府。

イ●ラ●教徒の受け入れが止まらない！

x.com/martytaka777/status/1753372736993599956/quotes

キルギス 誘拐婚の現実

natgeo.nikkeibp.co.jp/nng/article/20130619/354942/

欧州｢移民受け入れ｣で国が壊れた4ステップ

https://toyokeizai.net/articles/-/256915?page=4

クルド人難民申請／情弱日本人はドイツ判例を知らない

移民亡国ドイツ

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rvb-7KfKPwA

自ら壊れゆくドイツ

ドイツで120万部のベストセラー

執筆当時はドイツ連邦銀行理事であったティロ・ザラツィン

Deutschland schafft sich ab: Wie wir unser Land aufs Spiel setzen

Thilo Sarrazin

www.amazon.co.jp/dp/3421044309/

x.com/ImtiazMadmood/status/1738513677492392353

イ●ラ●国、モスルでヤジディ教徒の女性19人を焼死させる 「戦闘員との性交渉を拒否した」という理由で

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/isis-burn-19-yazidi-women-to-death-in-mosul-for-refusing-to-have-sex-with-isis-militants-a7066956.html

「イ●ラ●国」に13歳で“性奴隷”にされた女性の消えぬ苦しみ 未だに数千人のヤジディ教徒が行方不明か

www.youtube.com/watch?v=2U9lxqjlhPg

ロンドンでは、

エジプトからの不法移民モ●メ●・ハ●ム・ソ●タ●ンが

14歳の英国人少女を強姦しようとして捕まり、逮捕された。

モハメドは、自分はイ●ラ●教徒であり、

14歳の少女と性交するのは普通のことだと主張した。

x.com/EuropeInvasionn/status/1824484368452079786

tinyurl.com/7h8wtxkf

亡命申請者を最も多く受け入れている地域で

性犯罪が500％増加し、

ストーカー行為やハラスメントも6000％近く増加している事を

訴えるイギリスの青年。

そして更に彼は言った。

『英国はこの情報を公表しようとしない。』

西洋の自死

移民の受け入れに批判的な政治家や知識人に対しては、

「極右」

「人種差別主義者」

「排外主義者」

といった烙印を押して

公の場から追放

tinyurl.com/seiyo-no-jishi

「米国発」の急進左翼にノン？　フランスで大論争　ピケティ氏も参戦

イ●ラ●左翼の特徴は、

相手の言論の封殺。

「植民地主義者」「差別論者」とみなした標的に、

ネットやデモで猛烈な抗議を仕掛け、

発言の場を奪う。

www.sankei.com/article/20210228-KOI2BBMMIBJC7LEBBIPSYZ6G3Q/

イ●ラ●教徒の利害を守る圧力団体が欧州各地で数多く組織化されている

toyokeizai.net/articles/-/256915?page=3

寛容のパラドックス

「もし社会が無制限に寛容であるならば、その社会は最終的には不寛容な人々によって寛容性が奪われるか、寛容性は破壊される」

「寛容な社会を維持するためには、社会は不寛容に不寛容であらねばならない」

w.wiki/3eAN

コ●ラ●　9:5　あなた方はどこであれ、多神教徒を見つけ次第●しなさい

コ●ラ●　47:4　あなた方が不信心な人とまみえるときは、かれらの首を●ちなさい。

https://tinyurl.com/kyougi

コ●ラ●　34:33　われは不信心な者の首に●をかける

https://tinyurl.com/2p9xn7w4

『コ●ラ●』で多神教徒の扱いについて記された最も有名な章句である9章5節には

「多神教徒は見つけ次第●せ。ただし、イ●ラ●教に改宗し義務を果たすなら許せ」という主旨のことが書かれているが、

これが原理主義と結びつくと恐ろしい結果を招くことになるのは明白だ。

tinyurl.com/tashinkyoto

「イ●ラ●教徒から見れば、異教徒である日本人は明確に敵である、ということになります」

「神の言葉を記したコ●ラ●に『あなたがたが不信仰者と出会った時はその首を●ち●れ』（第47章4節）と記されている」

tinyurl.com/fushinkousha

首都ウィーン市の場合、非ドイツ語圏出身の生徒数は全体の51%(11万8693人)と遂に過半数を超えた。

2018年9月15日

tinyurl.com/imin-shougakusei

オックスフォード大学のある研究者の予測では、2060年までにはイギリス全体でも「白人のイギリス人」は少数派になると危惧されている。

2016年にイギリスに生まれた男児のうち、最も多かった名前は「モハメッド」であった。

ウィーン人口問題研究所は、

今世紀半ばまでに15歳未満のオーストリア人の過半数がイ●ラ●教徒になると予測している。

オーストリアは、それ以降、イ●ラ●国家になる可能性が高い

tinyurl.com/Vienna-Austria

同胞に「各自５人子供を産めばヨーロッパの未来担える」　トルコのエルドアン大統領

www.sankei.com/article/20170402-BLUPHXZL4VKNVIG37FPSJJVWRE/?522884

仏像破壊から20年、タリバン復権を危惧するバーミヤン

2021年3月17日

www.afpbb.com/articles/-/3336685

かつてアフガニスタンは仏教国、

パキスタンはヒンズー教国、

レバノンはキリスト教国、

インドネシアも仏教国だった。

tinyurl.com/4ervashj

寛容のパラドックス

「もし社会が無制限に寛容であるならば、その社会は最終的には不寛容な人々によって寛容性が奪われるか、寛容性は破壊される」

「寛容な社会を維持するためには、社会は不寛容に不寛容であらねばならない」

w.wiki/3eAN

ドイツ警察組合のマヌエル・オステルマン会長の勇気ある発言。

『ドイツはもはや安全な国ではない。ドイツに住む人々の生命と身体に対する最大の危険は、明らかにイ●ラ●教徒によるものです。』

ドイツ警察は声を上げ始めた。

x.com/martytaka777/status/1829390109374079003

ドイツ人女性は、窓の外を眺めながら、

何百人ものトップレスの移民たちが

「多様性」の名の下に自分の町の通りを占拠しているのを見て、

感極まった様子を見せた。

x.com/OliLondonTV/status/1770498999704809649

フランス

x.com/RadioGenoa/status/1830110797780914629

イギリス

x.com/RadioGenoa/status/1713926250392125724

日本でさえも。信じられない。

x.com/RadioGenoa/status/1833904286654459922

日本での出来事。

これがあなたの近所でも、もうすぐ起こる

x.com/tanomuzeA/status/1833962131840270732

x.com/amisweetheart/status/1834085028743315537

宇宙を作ったのが神なら、

神を作ったのは誰か？というのは、今でも一神教徒を悩ませる問題のひとつ。

x.com/egodissolution1/status/1275268436826836993

仏世論調査によると、１５～２４歳のイ●ラ●教徒のうち「宗教法は国の法より重要」と答えた人は５７％

tinyurl.com/houritsu

シ●リ●ア

w.wiki/6yeB

石打ち刑

x.com/deadguyhub/status/1838168747896459506

tinyurl.com/ishiuchikei

15歳のエハム・フセイン氏はイラクのイ●ラ●国（I●I●）シ●リ●ア法廷で裁判にかけられた。

彼の罪は？祈りの最中に西洋の音楽を聴いたこと。

彼は交差点に集まった群衆の前で斬首された。

x.com/AzatAlsalim/status/1827739130161168448

2019年、アチェ州で10代の若者2人が公共の場でハグをしたとして公開鞭打ち刑を受けた。インドネシアのイ●ラ●教は世俗的？嘘をつけ！

x.com/martytaka777/status/1832554780218290466

イ●ラ●教徒の土葬墓地計画、住民から反対相次ぐ…予定地の５５０ｍに水源

tinyurl.com/dosou

土葬で水質汚染が懸念されるのは何故ですか

tinyurl.com/yrvetymj

人間の土葬は野犬に掘り起こされないよう地中深く埋める。

深く埋めた死体は腐敗から白骨化するまでに

5年以上の長い時間を要し

土壌は長期間汚染される。

tinyurl.com/2cjsu8pa

バクテリアとウイルスによる地下水汚染に対する墓地の影響

tinyurl.com/4a9j9n34

ミナレット禁止から10年　スイスはどう変わったか

tinyurl.com/Minaret-Swiss

スイスも「顔を覆う衣服」禁止へ

tinyurl.com/burka-Swiss

イタリアのイ●ラ●教 - Wikipedia

2008年９月、北部同盟が、国内の多くの地域における新たなモ●クの建設を禁止する法案を提出したことが報じられた。

モ●クの建設はすでにミラノで不許可となっている。

イタリア政府は、ム●リ●はいかなる場所でも祈ることができ、モ●クを建設する必要はないと主張している。

tinyurl.com/bdh9wjae

ライシテ - Wikipedia

フランスにおける教会と国家の分離の原則（政教分離原則）、すなわち、（国家の）宗教的中立性・無宗教性および（個人の）信教の自由の保障を表わす。

ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%83%A9%E3%82%A4%E3%82%B7%E3%83%86

ヘイトスピーチ、イ●ラ●教は無神論、多神教、他宗教などをヘイトしていないか？！

ヘイトスピーチを理解する：ヘイトスピーチとは何か | 国連広報センター

国連がこの問題に世界規模で対処するための統一的な枠組みを提供するために、「ヘイトスピーチに関する国連戦略・行動計画」は、ヘイトスピーチを次のように定義しています。

「ある個人や集団について、その人が何者であるか、すなわち宗教、民族、国籍、人種、肌の色、血統、ジェンダー、または他のアイデンティティー要素を基に、それらを攻撃する、または軽蔑的もしくは差別的な言葉を使用する、発話、文章、または行動上のあらゆる種類のコミュニケーション」

www.unic.or.jp/news_press/features_backgrounders/48162/

法務省：ヘイトスピーチ、許さない。

特定の国の出身者であること又はその子孫であることのみを理由に、日本社会から追い出そうとしたり危害を加えようとしたりするなどの一方的な内容の言動が、一般に「ヘイトスピーチ」と呼ばれています （内閣府「人権擁護に関する世論調査（平成２９年１０月）」より）。

www.moj.go.jp/JINKEN/jinken04_00108.html

x.com/egodissolution1/status/1297680382913949697

地獄への道は善意で舗装されている！（The road to hell is paved with good intentions）

同性愛禁じるイ●ラ●国出身の Permalink | 記事への反応(2) | 05:36

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■anond:20240327162625

奴隷労働者がfinancially-independentなのおかしいだろ

Permalink | 記事への反応(1) | 16:50

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■anond:20240103144817

リソース増えれば他人へ回す絶対量は増えるかもしれんけど自分の家族と同程度以上に割くわけないやで

割くわけなかったら下記とか出来ませんの

■ NDSS

Today, there are approximately 250 two and four-year colleges and universities that include students with intellectual disabilities in educational, independent living and vocational/career programs.

https://ndss.org/

[BBC] 娘のために遊園地を建てた米男性　総工費56億円

https://www.google.co.jp/amp/s/www.bbc.com/japanese/features-and-analysis-40823738.amp

　

家族旅行に出かけたハートマンさんたちがプールを使っていた時のことだ。ハートマンさんがプールから上がって間もなく、当時12歳だったモーガンさんがプールで遊ぶ子供たちと仲良くなろうと近づいた。だが、子供たちはすぐ水から上がってしまった。

　

子供たちは障害のある人とどう接したらよいか分からず、尻込みしたのだろうとハートマンさんは考えている。モーガンさんの認知理解力は5歳程度で自閉症の症状もある。

ハートマンさんはプールでの一件を忘れることができなかった。

「モーガンはともかくすごく素晴らしい女の子です。いつも微笑んでくれるし、いつもハグしようとしてくれる。けれども、彼女を色々と連れていけないことが多すぎた」

　

ハートマンさんと妻のマギーさんはモーガンさんをどこに連れて行かれるか、ほかの親たちにも聞いてみた。モーガンさんにとって居心地良くて、周りの人も気まずい思いをせずにモーガンと触れ合える場所はないのか。

「そんな風に受け入れてくれる場所などないと、気が付いたんです」とハートマンは話す。

　

そこでハートマンさんは2007年、自分で遊園地を造ることにした。もともと不動産開発業のハートマンさんは、2005年に所有していた複数の住宅建設会社を売り、障害者支援の非営利団体「ゴードン・ハートマン家族財団」を設立していた。ハートマンさんは「世界初のものすごく寛容なテーマパーク」の建設に着手した。

「すべての人が何でもできる場所、障害があろうがなかろうが遊べるテーマパークが欲しかったんです」とハートマンさんは話す。

ハートマンさんは医師やセラピスト、保護者、障害のある人にもない人にも声をかけ、どんな遊戯施設が良いか相談にのってもらった。その結果、テキサス州サンアントニオの採石場跡に25エーカーの広さを持つテーマパークが誕生した。

Permalink | 記事への反応(1) | 14:51

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■Dehradun Call Girls | skokkacallgirl

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Permalink | 記事への反応(0) | 03:21

ツイートシェア

■独立式トイレの英語

independent toilet

ではなく

separate toilet

ね

御参考まで

Permalink | 記事への反応(0) | 16:07

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■Dehradun Call Girls | skokkacallgirl | Skokkacallgirl.com

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Permalink | 記事への反応(0) | 01:02

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■インドの女性キャスターがイスラエルの解説者から「あなたの衣装はパレスチナ色だ」と難癖をつけられ放った反論がかっこよかった

先日インドのテレビ局で、イスラエル側とパレスチナ側、双方の解説者を招いて話を聞く番組が放送された。

イスラエルからはフレデリックという軍の情報特殊部隊の人が出演した。

彼はイスラエル軍の行為の正当性とハマスによる被害を強い言葉で訴えて最後に番組批判に話を持っていった。

「あなたたちの番組は何を放送しているのか。ハマスの虚偽の主張になぜ正当性を与えているのか。私達の主張には証拠がある。客観的にならなければならない。パレスチナのプロパガンダを止めなければ。あなたは良い側にいるのか悪い側にいるのか、善か悪か、光と闇のどちら側か。あなたがどこに座ってどこに立っているのか決めてください。

私はあなたが今日着ている服の色をしっかり認識しています。だから私はあえて青と白の服を着ている。なぜならあなたが今夜意図的に緑や赤や黒をリスペクトして身につけているから。青と白が常に最後は勝つのです」

インド人の女性キャスターはあっけにとられながらもイスラエル側解説者に冷静に呼びかけた。

「フレデリック、宗教に基づいて色で分けるのはやめましょう。インドでも時々あることですがやめましょう」

そして番組を進行させパレスチナ側の解説者に話を振り、パレスチナ側解説者の話が終わる頃、イスラエル側が攻撃的に話に割り込んできたので、女性キャスターが今日の服装について反論を始めた。

「フレデリック、双方がお互いをプロパガンダだと非難しているから、私は二人の意見を聞きたかったんです。また、フレデリックに言っておくと、私が今夜着ている服はサリーで、私の祖母のものです。もし彼女が生きていたら、今日で105歳くらいになっていたでしょう。彼女はイスラエルとハマスの紛争が何なのか知らなかったし、このサリーは決してどちら側を支持するという意味ではありません。ガザで起きていること、病院への爆撃、約500人の死者は、単に犯罪的なことです。私が今着ているのは、単に祖母のサリーです。それ以外の意味はありません」

イスラエル側解説者はキャスターの話を聞いて「別の機会に着てください」と訴えた。

女性キャスターはそれを受けてこう答えた。

「フレデリック、あなたに私の着るものを選ばせたり、私の言うことを選ばせたりするつもりはありません。言うべきことは言うし、見たままの真実を話します。もちろん、真実にはさまざまなバージョンがあるでしょう。イスラエルから発信されるバージョンもあれば、ガザから発信されるバージョンもある。私たちはその両方を発信してきた。それが私たちのジャーナリスティックな義務なんです、フレデリック」

女性キャスターは旧Twitterにこう投稿した。

My Dear Departed Grandmother's Saree Upset My Guest From #Israel This Evening. For Once I Was At A Loss Of Words. 👇 pic.twitter.com/uxaEWiqUza— Shreya Dhoundial (@shreyadhoundial) October 18, 2023

一方、イスラエルの解説者は旧Twitterにこう投稿した。

Blue and White will prevail!#StandWithIsrael #HamasisISIS #Israel https://t.co/EEQTdm5LNN— Frederic Landau (@fredericlandau) October 19, 2023

以上はYouTubeの以下の動画のAI文字起こしを、BingAIで文節を区切らせ、DeepLで翻訳し、書いたものです。

Israel Hamas War: TV Anchor's Saree Upsets Israeli Guest during a Live debate, here is what happened - YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N3J7yqyMCKA

Israeli guest tells TV anchor wearing grandmother’s green and red saree to ‘save it for another occasion’ | The Independent

https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/india/mirror-now-host-india-frederic-landau-israel-b2432271.html

Permalink | 記事への反応(11) | 16:30

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■ドイツの♪ドの字は♪どう書くの♪

日本人「独（こう）書くの♪～Independent～」

中国人「Deutschland？德国」

Permalink | 記事への反応(0) | 09:53

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■ChatGPTにお前はどうやって実装されてんの？って聞いてみたら

マジレスされてチビッた．こりゃGoogleさんもビビるわけだ．

ぼく：

How were you implemented? Is it deep learning-based?

ChatGPT:

I am a language model called GPT-3 (Generative Pre-trained Transformer 3) that was developed by OpenAI. It is a deep learning-based model that uses a type of neural network called a transformer, which was trained on a large dataset of text to learn patterns of language.

GPT-3 is trained using a technique called unsupervised learning, where the model is given a massive amount of text data and uses this data to learn patterns and relationships in the language. This allows GPT-3 to generate human-like text when given a prompt, and to understand and respond to natural language input.

The training process of GPT-3 involves a technique called pre-training, which means that the model is trained on a massive dataset before being fine-tuned on a smaller task-specific dataset. This pre-training allows GPT-3 to have a good general understanding of the language and to be able to adapt to specific tasks more easily.

The GPT-3 model has 175 billion parameters, which is one of the largest language models to date, making it able to generate very human-like text and to understand context in a very natural way.

ぼく：

How does GPT-3 have a knowledgebase like an ontology? As it is deep learning-based, the knowledgebase like an ontology would not be implemented explicitly, but the structure should be designed with an expectation of having such a knowledge about hierarchy of concepts.

ChatGPT:

GPT-3, like other deep learning models, does not have an explicit knowledgebase or ontology built into its structure. Instead, it has been trained on a large dataset of text, which allows it to learn patterns and relationships between concepts.

However, the training data that GPT-3 was exposed to, likely contains a wide range of concepts and hierarchical structures. As GPT-3 learns patterns in the data, it can begin to understand the relationships between different concepts and ideas, and how they are related to each other. This allows the model to generate text that is more coherent and semantically meaningful, making it possible to understand the context and hierarchy of concepts, but it does not have an explicit ontology like a knowledge graph.

It can be said that GPT-3 has a certain level of "implicit ontology", in the sense that it has learned the relationships between concepts in a way that is similar to how a knowledge graph or ontology organizes information. However, it's important to note that GPT-3's understanding of concepts and relationships is based on the patterns it has learned from the training data, which is not a structured and explicit knowledgebase like an ontology.

ぼく：

Then how does GPT-3 handle the long-term or short term memories? Can it remember information about the on-going chatting? My name is Masuda, can GPT-3 keep it in the memory? Furthermore, can it learn and understand the new information from the Q-A queries, and use it in the future queries?

ChatGPT:

GPT-3 handles long-term and short-term memories differently. When it generates text, it uses a technique called attention mechanism which allows the model to focus on certain parts of the input while generating the output. This allows GPT-3 to keep track of previous information and context when generating text, which can be thought of as a form of short-term memory.

Regarding the on-going chatting, GPT-3 can keep track of certain information, like the name you've provided, Masuda, during the conversation and use it in future responses. However, it's important to note that GPT-3 is a stateless model, which means that it doesn't have a permanent memory that it can refer to after a conversation ends.

Regarding learning from Q-A, GPT-3 is trained on a massive dataset of text, and it learns patterns and relationships between concepts from this data. It can generate text that is semantically meaningful and coherent, but it does not have the capability to learn new information from Q-A sessions and use it in future queries. However, OpenAI has developed another model called DALL-E, which uses GPT-3 and it is capable of learning from Q-A sessions and use it in future queries.

ぼく：

Is ChatGPT superior to the Google search? Previously people used Google to search for their questions. Now a days, ChatGPT can answer to those questions. What are pros and cons of ChatGPT over the Google search?

ChatGPT:

ChatGPT and Google search are different technologies with different capabilities and strengths.

Google search is a powerful web search engine that can quickly find relevant information from a vast amount of web pages and documents. It uses complex algorithms to rank and sort search results based on relevance, popularity, and other factors. Google search is very good at providing factual information and is an excellent tool for researching a wide range of topics.

ChatGPT, on the other hand, is a natural language processing model that can generate human-like text. It is trained on a large dataset of text and uses this knowledge to understand and respond to natural language input. ChatGPT can generate text that is more coherent and semantically meaningful than a simple information retrieval engine like Google search. ChatGPT can also be used to generate text that is more engaging and human-like, such as in chatbots and virtual assistants.

One of the main advantages of ChatGPT over Google search is its ability to understand and respond to natural language input in a more human-like way. ChatGPT can also generate text that is more coherent and semantically meaningful, which can be useful in many applications. However, Google search is better at providing factual information and searching for specific pieces of information.

Another disadvantage of ChatGPT is that it doesn't have the ability to retrieve information from the web, it can only generate text based on the patterns it has learned from the training data. That's why it's not a replacement for a web search engine like Google but it can be used as an additional tool to help people to find the information they are looking for.

In summary, ChatGPT and Google search have different strengths and capabilities. While Google search is better at providing factual information, ChatGPT is better at understanding and responding to natural language input in a more human-like way.

ぼく：

Why don't ChatGPT refer to Google search in the generation of the conversation? Google Assistant has such a function. Is the reason due to the fact that OpenAI is funded by Google?

ChatGPT:

ChatGPT is a language model that generates text based on the patterns it has learned from the training data. While it can understand and respond to natural language input in a human-like way, it does not have the capability to access external sources of information like Google search.

Google Assistant, on the other hand, is a virtual assistant that can access a wide range of information and services through the internet, including Google search. Google Assistant can use this information to provide more accurate and relevant responses to user queries.

The reason ChatGPT does not refer to Google search during the generation of the conversation is likely because it was not designed or trained to do so. Instead, it was designed to generate text based on the patterns it has learned from the training data, and it does not have the capability to access external sources of information.

It's worth noting that OpenAI and Google are separate organizations, even though Google is an investor in OpenAI, this doesn't necessarily mean that the two companies work together on their products and services. OpenAI has its own development team, goals and roadmap and they are independent from Google.

ぼく：

I am going to post this conversation with ChatGPT in the anonymous diary of Hatena co. What should I do for attracting people to get many bookmarks?

ChatGPT:

There are several things you can do to attract people and increase the chances of your conversation with ChatGPT getting many bookmarks on Hatena diary. Some suggestions include:

1. Make sure your conversation is well-written and easy to understand. Use clear and concise language, and consider formatting your text in a way that makes it easy to read.

2. Use relevant keywords and hashtags in your diary entry. This can help make your conversation more discoverable to people searching for related topics on Hatena diary.

3. Include images or videos in your diary entry. This can make your conversation more visually appealing and can help attract more readers.

4. Share your diary entry on social media or other platforms. This can help increase the visibility of your conversation and attract more readers.

5. Encourage readers to share their thoughts and opinions on your conversation by including a call to action or a question at the end of your diary entry.

6. Finally, you can also try to participate in the conversation on Hatena diary, by answering the questions, responding to the comments, and engaging with your readers.

It's important to remember that getting many bookmarks on a diary is not easy and it can take time and effort to build an audience. But by following these tips and being consistent with your diary entry, you will increase the chances of attracting more readers and getting more bookmarks.

ぼく：

Thank you. By the way, what is my name?

ChatGPT:

You've mentioned your name is Masuda.

Permalink | 記事への反応(4) | 13:38

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■[セミFIRE]

fire = financially independent, retire early.

高校生にとっての受験勉強みたいなとらえ方すればいいのではないか。けんしゅうで教えてる時間をしごととしてとらえず、自己健さんだとおもうことにしよう。ハイエンドのRyzen設定したり、必要なアプリをインストールしたりするだろう。けどそれもしごととおもわないこと。自己健さんだよ。となると仕事って列挙すると

〇 委員会・会議

〇 エクセルたちあげて、集計 （スコアとか・・

〇 申請書執筆（これはこんど当たれば・・・

〇 けんしゅう効果測定法についてのお勉強とか効果測定とか・・（本当にやるとしたら・・

〇 報告書執筆のたぐい

〇 物品注文（これも自己健さんかな

〇 アプリをインストールして大昔の実測値さがす（これも自己健さんするための前提事項・・・

Permalink | 記事への反応(1) | 06:54

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■

ジョークにしても露骨だなあ

Elon Musk

@elonmusk

To independent-minded voters:

Shared power curbs the worst excesses of both parties, therefore I recommend voting for a Republican Congress, given that the Presidency is Democratic.

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午前0:22 · 2022年11月8日

·Twitter for iPhone

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1589639376186724354?s=46&t=KJD9qFRAXQ5wXs0mJnoWLA

Permalink | 記事への反応(0) | 04:51

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■円安を恐れるべきか

現在、数十年振りの円安です。コロナ禍やロシアの侵略戦争によるエネルギー高もあって物価が上昇していますがこれは本当に恐れるべき事なのでしょうか。

私は以下の文を読んで何故円安なのか、それをどう考えればよいか、よく理解出来たので、クローズドなSNSで4月の投稿ですが、書いた人の承諾を得て公開します。

【転載開始】

2001年6月以降の日米のコアCPI（なお日本のコアコアはアメリカのコアに相当）をグラフにしたものです。灰色の細い線はその差です。いずれも日記で紹介している内容で、日頃からデータを取っていればすぐに作れるグラフです。

アメリカはインフレ、日本はデフレとします（今はそうです。）。

両国ともまっとうな金融政策、つまりインフレになれば金融を引き締め、デフレであれば緩和するという政策をとれば、アメリカは金融を引き締めて金利上昇、日本は金融を緩和して金利低下となります。

そうなると、それまで円建ての資産を持っていた投資家は、より高い利回りを求めて米ドル建ての資産を購入するために、円を売ってドルを買うので、ドル高・円安になります。

パンデミックに直面して、アメリカは積極的過ぎる需要拡大政策をとり、日本はあいかわらず庶民の苦境をほったらかにしました。そこでパンデミックからの回復とともに、アメリカは供給＜需要となってインフレ率が急上昇し、日本は供給＞需要となってデフレとなり、インフレ率の差も急拡大しました。現在その差は過去40年で最大です。

したがって、日米ともにまっとうな金融政策を取っていれば、急ピッチにドル高・円安が進むのは当然のことなのです。

これを阻止して為替レートの安定を図るには、2つの方法があります。

1つめは、資本の自由な移動を禁止することです。ただ、こうなるとわれわれは好き勝手に米株や米国債を買えなくなり、アメリカ人も日本株を買ったり日本に投資できなくなります。中国は、まっとうな金融政策と為替相場の安定のために、資本移動に大幅な制限を設けています。中国人は共産党にコネがある人は別にして、資本を第三国に自由に移動することができないし、外資系企業は中国国内で利益を出しても、あるいは事業がうまくいかずに撤退しようとしても、送金規制などでそれをするのが極めて難しい。だから中国はめざましい経済成長を誇る世界二位の経済大国なのに、世界第二位の金融大国ではないのです。中国株はリーマンショック前の高値の半分程度、15年前と価格は同じです。

2つめは、国内が不景気なのに金融を引き締めて、日米金利差を無くすことです。こうなれば為替レートは固定されますが、不景気はさらに深刻化します。これはアメリカからみても同じことです。FRBがドル高を是正しようとして金融を緩和すれば、インフレはますます酷くなります。ところでEUの共通通貨（ユーロ）は、採用国から独立した金融政策を実施する能力を奪い取っています。だから南欧やギリシャなどの経済の弱い国にとって金融は常にタイトで、為替は高く、ドイツのように経済が強い国にとって金融は常に緩和気味で、為替は弱い。そうして生まれた経済格差は、貧乏な国から豊かな国に移動する自由を保障するから、労働者が自力で何とかしろ、というのがユーロの制度設計です。

このとおり、①国内の景気のためにまっとうな金融政策を取ること（これを「金融政策の独立性」といいます。）、②自由な資本移動と、③為替レートの安定性の3つは同時に達成できないのです。

これは国際金融の「トリレンマ」といって、マクロ経済学のどの教科書にも書いてある基本的な原理です。

“A unifying theme of this chapter is the international “trilemma”—that it is impossible for any nation to maintain simultaneously (1) independent control of domestic monetary policy, (2) fixed exchange rates, and (3) free flows of capital with other nations (“perfect capital mobility”). Thus fixed exchange rates and capital mobility create a new reason why domestic monetary policy may be impotent. For instance, Europe’s common currency (the euro) has stripped member nations of their ability to conduct an independent domestic monetary policy. “

Gordon, Robert J. “Macroeconomics”:12th edition Pearson Education. (2011).

3つを比較すると為替レートの安定性の喪失は一番弊害が少ないのです。例えば通貨が下落すれば、輸入品は高くなりますが、輸出には有利に働くので、変動したから悪いというわけではない。それに輸入品の価格が上がれば財政政策で家計を補助する、通貨高で企業が苦しければ減税するなど、他の政策で問題をカバーすることも可能です。それと比較すると金融政策の独立性を奪われること、資本移動の自由を制限することの弊害ははるかに大きい。

だからアメリカや日本は、独立した金融政策を取りつつ、資本移動の自由を保障し、変動相場制を採用し、為替レートがファンダメンタルズにあわせて動くことを容認しているのです。

そうした経済学の原理を無視すると、必ず手痛いしっぺ返しを食らい、その打撃は社会のもっとも弱い層がもっとも大きく受けるのです。

その典型例が、経済成長のために資本移動の自由を進めながら、事実上のドルペッグ制を維持しようとしたアジア諸国を襲った1997年のアジア通貨危機です。これはドルにあわせたために実力以上に高くなっていたタイの通貨バーツがヘッジファンドに売られたのがきっかけです。"強欲なヘッジファンドが悪い"みたいな寝ぼけたことを言う人がすごく多いのですが、悪いのは、金融政策と、外国からの投資と、為替レートの安定、3つ全部を同時に手に入れようなどという虫のよいことを考えたタイ、インドネシア、韓国です。ヘッジファンドに目をつけられたくなかったら、外国投資と引き換えに為替レートの安定は放棄すべきだったし、いっそのこと資本の自由化なんてしなければよかったのです。

デフレであるにも関わらず金融を引き締めて、超円高を招き、就職氷河期と製造業の空洞化＝「失われた20年」を招いた1990年代半ば以後の日本もその亜種です。グラフをみると、民主党政権時代の円高がいかにファンダメンタルズとかけ離れていたかが分ると思います。製造業の壊滅も非正規と貧困の増大も、まったくの人災だったのです。

そして、今、ロシアがルーブルを維持するために、制裁で不景気なのに政策金利を17％にしたり、外資の資金持ち出しを制限しようとするなど、同じ轍を踏もうとしています。

今、円安阻止のために金融緩和を止めよというのがどれだけ愚かな提言か、分っていただけましたかな？

↓グラフ画像へのリンク

https://imgur.com/7uV6seY

【転載終了】

転載した私の超蛇足

上の説明を読んでから「ポンド危機」のウィキ説明を読むと、 英国が「ERM」（欧州為替相場メカニズム）に参加するために独自の金融政策をとれなくなった結果どんなことになったか、為替の安定よりも金融政策の独自性を確保することの方が遥に大切であることがよく判ります。

https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%83%9D%E3%83%B3%E3%83%89%E5%8D%B1%E6%A9%9F

10月21日発表の消費者物価指数はコアで30年ぶりの3パーセントでした。しかし変動の大きい食料・エネルギーを除いたコアコアは1.8パーセントです。まあまあ、そこそこの景気といわれるものがコアコア2パーセント（日銀もそれを目指している）とのことなので、為替の安定性のために今金融引き締めをしたらせっかくおぼろに見え始めた不況の出口が消滅しかねません。

今日の日経記事

「大卒内定者4年ぶり増加　23年春入社、日経調査」

https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUC170XT0X11C22A0000000/

すみません。日銀の目標は2パーセントでした。訂正します。

【追記】

賃金があがらないというブコメが多いのでこれ貼っときます。

10月9日、NHK「最近日銀内部で話題のことば 「ノルム」って？【経済コラム】」

これを読むと日銀は何故賃金が上がらないか(どうやれば賃上げできるか)を前々から調べて考えていることがわかります。

デフレ不況の長く続いた日本で今、野党やメディアや我々一般人がすべきことは賃上げ要求であって、円安是正の為の金利引き上げでは間違ってもないと言えます。

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20221007/k10013851551000.html

Permalink | 記事への反応(22) | 19:47

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