This week, USA Today and the Wall Street Journal both analyzed the importance of state legislative races this year in the context of the redistricting fight to come.

USA Today does an excellent job explaining the big picture of what’s at stake in 2010:

Democrats are ramping up for a historic fundraising effort. "With the Census and the health care agenda, people are focusing on what these state races mean," says Michael Sargeant, executive director of the Democratic effort.

Republicans are playing catch-up in the redistricting fight. Before congressional boundaries were redrawn in 2001, the GOP controlled governorships and both chambers of state legislatures in 13 states, compared with eight for Democrats.

Since then, Democrats have made steady gains in state legislative races and reversed the equation. Today, Democrats control the governor's office, the state House and the state Senate in 16 states. Republicans have total control in nine states.

But for all the numbers, the reality of what could happen on a district and state level is best explained by looking at the key states, as the Wall Street Journal does in its analysis of Indiana (subscription only):

In Indiana, for example, Democrats controlled redistricting after the 2000 elections and picked up three additional congressional seats over the past decade. Now, Republicans are trying to reverse those gains. If the GOP picks up just three seats in the state House, the party will control both chambers of the legislature and strengthen its hand in the redistricting process.

The federal health care reform bill, you may remember, passed with only three votes to spare – exactly the number of congressional seats picked up by Indiana Democrats in the last decade. If Republicans pick up just a handful of State House seats this year, they can gerrymander all three of those Democratic congresspersons out of office.