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RT Journal Article
T1 Chocs des termes de l'échange et fluctuations du compte courant : le cas d'un pays membre de l'UEM
A1 Issop, Zoulfikar Mehoumoud
PB Ministère de l'Économie
JF Économie & prévision
VO 180
IS 4
YR 2007
SP 201
OP 219
UL https://www.persee.fr/doc/ecop_0249-4744_2007_num_180_4_7680
SN 0249-4744
DO 10.3406/ecop.2007.7680
AB This article offers a theoretical and empirical assessment of the characteristics of France’s short-and medium-term external adjustments to temporary, unexpected terms-of-trade shocks. We base our theoretical analysis on an innovative synthesis of (1) the intertemporal approach to the current-account balance and (2) conventional trade-balance models. The analysis begins by identifying Marshall-Lerner conditions expanded to the intertemporal framework and to Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). We then assess the conditions using a robust estimate of the model’s key parameters and inter-and intra-temporal elasticities of substitution. The simulations of the expanded Marshall-Lerner conditions indicate that the euro’s introduction has dampened the impact of terms-of-trade shocks on the French current account. Moreover, intertemporal (or income) smoothing effects explain the dynamics of French external accounts better than substitution effects.
K1 cointegration regressions
K1 generalized method of moments (GMM)
K1 JEL Classification C22 - D91 - E21 - F32 - F41
K1 intra-and extra-EMU terms-of-trade shocks
K1 elasticities of substitution
K1 extended Marshall-Lerner conditions
K1 J curves
K1 courbes en J
K1 GMM
K1 Classification JEL C22 - D91 - E21 - F32 - F41
K1 élasticités de substitution
K1 chocs des termes de l’échange intra et extra-UEM
K1 conditions Marshall-Lerner élargies
K1 régressions de cointégration
OL fre
DB Persée https://www.persee.fr
DS Persée
NO Copyright Persée