2024 Lookback: Streaming Strategy, Netflix Narrative, Studio Struggles
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As another turbulent year in media and tech comes to an end, VIP+ analysts are revisiting what they got right — and wrong — in their 2024 forecasts. In this installment, Tyler Aquilina assesses how studio and streamer strategies played out in a time he predicted would be the year of “any means necessary” for legacy media.
If there’s a unifying theme to my forecasts for 2024, it’s that they mostly came to pass — just not necessarily in the ways I expected.
As 2023 drew to a close, I was one of several media analysts who declared an end to the streaming wars, taking a new licensing deal between Disney and Netflix as confirmation that the latter had prevailed over its competitors.
With that in mind, I pondered where Netflix and its legacy media rivals were headed over the next year, noting, “The legacy players must do whatever they can to simply weather the ongoing storm, whether that’s M&A, new forms of bundling such as the Disney-Charter pact or using their library content as currency to help fund their business.”
As for Netflix, I voiced concern over what might happen in the entropy of victory, predicting that “this question will likely hang over Netflix’s 2024 even if its success continues throughout the year: What exactly is the company’s narrative going forward?”
All of these predictions came true in unexpected ways over the past year, as Netflix leadership began to reshape the way the company frames its business, legacy media companies surprised with new tactics, and one piece of library content in particular became Disney’s coup de grace to win the year.
Let’s break these down one at a time:
Netflix Narrative
When considering Netflix’s path forward, I was bullish on the streamer’s inroads into gaming, which faded into the background somewhat over the last year. But Ted Sarandos & Co. have indeed started rewriting Netflix’s narrative for investors, most notably by deciding to wind down the streamer’s quarterly subscriber reports.
Wall Street didn’t take too kindly to this news, but the Big Red N’s continued overperformance on topline metrics outweighed all other concerns this year, pushing Netflix stock to record highs just two years after its historic crash.