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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Ludovica Ciasullo; Martina Uccioli |
| Abstract: | We provide the first causal evidence that changes to work arrangements – in the form of greater schedule regularity – can reduce the child penalty in earnings for women. The Australian 2009 Fair Work Act explicitly entitled parents of young children to request a change in work arrangements. Leveraging variation in the timing of the law, timing of childbirth, and the bite of the law across different occupations and industries, we establish three main results. First, new mothers used the Fair Work Act to maintain a regular schedule while reducing hours upon childbirth. Second, thanks to increased regularity, working mothers’ child penalty declined from a 47 to a 38 percent drop in hours worked. Third, while this increase in maternal labor supply implies a significant shift towards equality in the female- and male-shares of household income, we do not observe any changes in the female share of home production. |
| Keywords: | child penalty, work arrangements, division of home production |
| JEL: | J16 J22 J18 J81 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12105 |
| By: | Sébastien Fontenay; Libertad González |
| Abstract: | We propose that men's reluctance to increase their participation in childcare and household chores is an important factor keeping both fertility and women's employment low in Europe. We first show that, over time, European women express a stronger desire for men increasing their participation in home production. This trend is not observed for men. We propose a toy model of the household that illustrates how men's refusal to contribute to childcare can have negative effects on both fertility and women's labor supply. Finally, we use cross-country panel data and a two-way fixed effects specification to show that countries where the gender divergence in attitudes is more pronounced display both lower birth-rates and lower female employment rates. |
| Keywords: | female labor force participation, fertility, gender norms |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J21 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1506 |
| By: | Natalia Bermúdez-Barrezueta; Bart Cockx; Gert Bijnens (-) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the effectiveness of Belgium’s short-time work (STW) program during the Great Recession, a period when the country recorded the highest STW take-up rate in Europe. STW allows firms to reduce working hours in response to temporary shocks while avoiding layoffs, playing a key role in European labor market insurance systems. Using an instrumental variable strategy that exploits quasi-exogenous variation stemming from an institutional feature of the Belgian program, we estimate the causal effects of STW on employment and wages. We find that, while STW significantly reduces the volume of work per worker, it does not lead to statistically significant employment gains for the average treated firm. Importantly, positive employment effects are concentrated among small manufacturing firms, which are more likely to face binding liquidity constraints. These findings highlight the importance of targeting and screening in improving the cost-effectiveness of STW programs and minimizing deadweight losses. |
| Keywords: | Short-time work, employment, wages, unemployment insurance |
| JEL: | E24 J22 J23 J63 J65 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:25/1121 |
| By: | Lennart Ziegler |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how caseworkers influence job finding rates and job quality. To rule out selection effects, I exploit that caseworkers are assigned based on the jobseekers’ month of birth in some offices of the Austrian public employment service. Combining administrative data on caseworkers and jobseekers, I compute value-added measures for multiple jobseeker outcomes. A one-standard-deviation increase in caseworker performance corresponds to six additional days of employment in the first year and two percent higher earnings. For older workers and workers of foreign nationality, I observe the largest differences in caseworker performance. Employment and earnings effects are positively correlated, suggesting that faster job finding does not come at the expense of job quality. Analyzing differences in caseworker strategies, I find that caseworkers who refer more vacancies to jobseekers achieve higher employment rates, and those who refer better-paying jobs also achieve higher earnings. In contrast, frequent use of training programs or benefit sanctions is associated with worse job search outcomes. |
| Keywords: | unemployment, caseworkers, job search assistance, vacancy referrals |
| JEL: | J64 J68 J31 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12100 |
| By: | Maria De Paola; Roberto Nisticò; Vincenzo Scoppa |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of co-workers’ fertility on individual fertility decisions. Using matched employer-employee data from Italian social security records (2016–2020), we estimate how fertility among co-workers of similar age and occupation affects the individual likelihood of having a child. We exploit variation introduced by the 2015 Jobs Act, which reduced fertility among workers hired under weaker employment protection. Focusing on workers hired before the reform and using the share of colleagues hired after the reform as an instrument for peer fertility, we find that a one-percentage-point increase in peer fertility raises individual fertility by 0.4 percentage points (a 10% increase). Heterogeneity analysis suggests that while social influence and social norms are key mechanisms, information sharing and career concerns, particularly among women, tend to moderate the response. Our findings highlight how changes in employment protection may have unintended fertility spillovers through workplace social interactions. |
| Keywords: | career concerns, EPL, fertility, social learning, social norms, workplace |
| JEL: | C3 J13 J65 J41 M51 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12131 |
| By: | Jong-Wha Lee; Eunbi Song |
| Abstract: | This study examines the factors underlying the sharp decline in marriage and fertility rates by integrating microdata analysis with a structural macroeconomic model. Drawing on 25 years of individual-level panel data from the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study, it employs discrete-time survival models to examine how individual and regional factors influence the incidence of first marriage and childbirth. The findings show that rising educational and marriage-related expenses significantly reduce the likelihood of marriage, whereas increased female labor force participation and escalating child education costs are associated with lower probabilities of childbirth. These empirical patterns motivate a dynamic overlapping-generations model with endogenous family formation, human capital investment, and intra-household bargaining. The model incorporates gender-based differences in partner matching and household labor, which influence time allocation and marriage utility, particularly for college-educated women. Simulation results indicate that rising marriage and child-rearing costs have been the primary drivers of declining family formation since 1990, while increases in women’s education have played a modest role. The findings further suggest that a package of targeted policies--such as childcare and education support, marriage-cost subsidies, and gender-equalizing reforms in households and the labor market--could raise the fertility rate from 0.75 to around 1.2, a level comparable to that of other low-fertility advanced countries. |
| Keywords: | growth, fertility, gender equality, human capital accumulation, marriage, Korea |
| JEL: | E24 J11 J12 J13 J71 O53 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2025-51 |
| By: | Lin William Cong; Stephen Q. Yang |
| Abstract: | We develop an empirical approach for analyzing multi-dimensional discrimination using multimodal data, combining human perception measures with language-embedding-based, nonlinear controls for latent quality to relax restrictive assumptions in causal machine learning. Applying it to the U.S. patent examination process, we find that, ceteris paribus, applications from female inventors are 1.8 percentage points less likely to be approved, and those from Black inventors are 3 percentage points less likely—inconsistent with legally prescribed criteria. Jointly studying multiple bias dimensions and their intersections for the first time, we uncover new biases, including an affiliation bias—individual inventors are disadvantaged by 6.6 percentage points relative to employees of large, public firms, a disparity larger than any demographic gap. Moreover, innovation quality, location, and other factors can mitigate or compound discrimination, and the disparities interact: for example, racial gaps vanish among public-firm employees, masking more severe discrimination against individuals. Existing theories such as homophily cannot fully explain the results, but a simple model of correlation neglect does. |
| JEL: | G30 J15 J16 O31 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34197 |
| By: | Maridueña-Larrea, Ángel; Martín-Román, Ángel L. |
| Abstract: | This study examines the empirical validity of the Unemployment Invariance Hypothesis (UIH) using a sample of 31 American countries and annual data from 1991 to 2023. While previous literature often focused on single-country analyses, an existing study for Latin America covers only six countries and relies on short time spans, limiting their ability to capture full economic cycles. This paper expands both the temporal and geographical scope, enabling more accurate cross-country comparisons. The results generally reject the UIH, with significant implications for economic policy in both cases—whether the hypothesis is accepted or not. In countries where UIH is rejected, the discouraged worker effect (DWE) tends to outweigh the added worker effect (AWE). These findings highlight the need for country-specific labor policies, which can be better designed based on the estimates presented. |
| Keywords: | Cointegration; Added worker effect; Discouraged worker effect; Unemployment invariance; Unemployment rate; Labor force participation rate. |
| JEL: | C10 E24 J64 J68 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125831 |
| By: | Kansikas, Carolina (University of Warwick); Bagues, Manuel (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | We study whether term limits can accelerate women’s access to top political positions by analyzing two reforms in Italian local elections that extended mayoral term limits from two to three five-year terms. In a period marked by rapid growth in women’s political participation, the first reform affected municipalities with fewer than 3, 000 inhabitants in 2014, and the second those below 5, 000 in 2022. Using a difference-in-discontinuities design, we find that longer term limits restrict opportunities for early-career politicians, with substantial effects for female representation: the share of female mayors would be 8 percentage points higher without the term limit extensions. The impact is larger in municipalities with more women in lower political positions and where gender quotas for council members are present, suggesting that entry-level quotas can be more effective when paired with policies promoting turnover in top positions. |
| Keywords: | Term limits ; female political representation ; Italian local elections JEL Codes: J16 ; J18 ; J48 ; D72 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1573 |
| By: | Jennifer Hook; Meiying Li |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether work-family policies help incorporate women into the labor market, but exacerbate the gender earnings gap and motherhood penalty, especially for mothers and/or tertiary-educated women. We use repeated cross-sectional income data from the Luxembourg Income Study Database (LIS) 1999–2019 (n = 26 countries, 280 country-years, 2.9 million employees) combined with an original collection of indicators on work-family policies, labor market conditions, and gender norms. We find only one work-family policy, long paid parental leave (> 6 months), is associated with a larger gender earnings gap for mothers and tertiary-educated women. The negative relationship between long paid leave and women’s earning percentile is not well explained by selection, full-time status, work hours, experience, occupation, or sector, suggesting discrimination mechanisms. Our findings add to the growing evidence that long paid leave specifically, as opposed to work-family policies more generally, cleave the labor market outcomes of women from men. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:901 |
| By: | Olympia Bover (CEMFI); Nezih Guner (CEMFI); Yuliya Kulikova (Bank of Spain); Alessandro Ruggieri (CUNER Universidad); Carlos Sanz (Banco de Espana) |
| Abstract: | Family-friendly policies aim to help women balance work and family life, encouraging them to participate in the labor market. How effective are such policies in increasing fertility? We answer this question using a search model of the labor market where firms make hiring, promotion, and firing decisions, taking into account how these decisions affect workers’ fertility incentives and labor force participation decisions. We estimate the model using administrative data from Spain, a country with very low fertility and a highly regulated labor market. We use the model to study family-friendly policies and demonstrate that firms' reactions result in a trade-off: policies that increase fertility reduce women's participation in the labor market and lower their lifetime earnings. |
| Keywords: | flexibility, search and matching, human capital accumulation, gender gap, welfare |
| JEL: | E24 J08 J13 J18 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2025-006 |
| By: | Hanna Wang |
| Abstract: | I develop and estimate a life-cycle discrete-choice model of fertility and female labor supply to study the optimal design of a range of child-related policies. First, I examine two German reforms that introduced wage-contingent parental leave payments and expanded access to low-cost public childcare. I find that both reforms raised completed fertility, with the parental leave reform having a particularly strong impact on highly educated women. Second, I solve for a budget-neutral optimal policy portfolio that maximizes either aggregate welfare or fertility, while ensuring that welfare and fertility do not decline for any education group. I consider four prominent child subsidies as well as the degree of tax jointness. My results show that optimal policy has the potential to increase welfare by 0.5% or fertility by 5.7%. While the solutions are qualitatively similar, they prioritize different policy instruments depending on the specific objective being targeted. |
| Keywords: | childcare subsidies, fertility, optimal policy, parental leave |
| JEL: | H21 J13 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1507 |
| By: | Sona Badalyan |
| Abstract: | This paper exploits a unique norm-shifting setting—a German pension reform that equalized retirement ages across genders—to examine how old-age employment propagates through workplace networks. The reform raised women’s earliest claiming age from 60 to 63 for cohorts born in 1952 onward. Using the universe of workgroups from social security records, I compare women whose peers were just above or below the reform cutoff. I find that women are more likely to remain employed at older ages when their peers do, with stronger effects in the regions of former West Germany, with its traditional gender norms. Gender-neutral pension reforms thus amplify their impact through peer influence, fostering regional convergence in late-career employment patterns. |
| Keywords: | aging, gender, peer effects, old age employment, social norms |
| JEL: | D85 H55 J14 J16 J22 J26 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp800 |
| By: | Joop Age Harm Adema; Lasha Chargaziia; Yvonne Giesing; Sarah Necker; Panu Poutvaara |
| Abstract: | Refugees' decisions to return after conflict carry significant political and economic implications for the origin and host countries. We examine how conflict resolution, security, economic conditions, and corruption influence return decisions. To estimate the causal effect of post-war conditions, we conducted a single-profile conjoint experiment among 2543 Ukrainian refugees across 30 European countries. Respondents were asked how likely they would be to return to Ukraine under different hypothetical scenarios. Results show that territorial integrity and security guarantees are critical, while economic prospects and combating corruption also play an important role. Refugees planning to return are more responsive to different post-war scenarios, and younger respondents are particularly influenced by income opportunities, job prospects, and potential EU accession. Our findings suggest that targeted political and economic reconstruction policies can substantially influence post-conflict return. In the most optimistic scenario, the expected return rate is 47%; in the most pessimistic scenario, only 3%. |
| Keywords: | refugees, return migration, conflict, integration, Ukraine, conjoint experiment |
| JEL: | F22 D74 O15 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12118 |
| By: | C. Kirabo Jackson |
| Abstract: | This paper studies when decentralization improves public service delivery. I analyze a Chicago reform that awarded select principals greater autonomy over budgets and operations while holding resources largely unchanged. A meta-analysis of similar reforms shows substantial heterogeneity, including both positive and negative effects. Building on insights from public finance, contract design, and psychology, I argue that the returns to autonomy depend on the capacity of local decision-makers (i.e., principals in this context) and the alignment of their objectives with those of central authorities. Event-study estimates show that, on average, increased autonomy improved achievement by about 0.1 standard deviations, effects comparable to resource-intensive interventions but achieved at minimal cost. However, deconvolution analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity, with both negative and positive effects. Design-based evidence supports the theoretical predictions; high-performing principals benefit more, reallocating resources effectively (e.g., reducing class sizes), and schools with atypical student populations benefit more and may tailor services to local needs. These results highlight that local capacity, aligned incentives, and heterogeneity are central to the success of decentralization reforms. |
| JEL: | H75 H77 I2 J0 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34216 |
| By: | Dey, Subhasish (University of Warwick); Kapoor, Mahima (University of Warwick); Mukherjee, Anirban (University of Calcutta) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we examine if in the UK labour market, for a given job, immigrants are more educated than the natives. The answer to this question has critical policy implications as such skill mismatch signals misallocation of resources. Our theoretical framework explains why we might observe such a mismatch in a full information setup. In our framework, both hard skills (captured by years of education) and soft skills (based on local culture) are critical for productive activities. We further assume that natives have a comparative advantage in soft skills, while immigrants have a comparative advantage in hard skills. Therefore, in equilibrium, immigrants over-invest in hard skills, making them overeducated for a job. Moreover, between first and second-generation immigrants, the degree of overeducation is higher among the first-generation immigrants. We test our theoretical results using a nationally representative survey data from the UK and find support for our theoretical predictions. |
| Keywords: | second-generation Immigrants ; education-occupation mismatch ; UK JEL Codes: J08 ; J15 ; J61 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1576 |
| By: | Mookerjee, Mehreen; Ojha, Manini; Roy, Sanket; Yadav, Kartik |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between alcohol consumption and women's empowerment. Drawing on two rounds of nationally representative NFHS data from India and employing a difference-in-differences strategy, we show that a sharp decline in alcohol availability due to an alcohol prohibition policy, led to significant gains in women's agency. Women report greater decision-making power in health care, large household purchases, family visits, and the use of husbands' earnings, with effects ranging from 11.2 to 14.2 percentage points. We also find improvements in women's mobility and reductions in barriers to seeking medical care. A key mechanism appears to be a reduction in husbands' alcohol consumption, accompanied by a decline in reported control issues. Our results are robust across alternative estimation strategies, outcome definitions, placebo and falsification tests, and alternative treatment-control specifications. Heterogeneity analysis indicates particularly strong effects for rural, poorer, and socially disadvantaged women, underscoring the potential of alcohol control policies to enhance women's empowerment in patriarchal contexts. |
| Keywords: | empowerment, agency, decision-making, alcohol consumption, alcohol ban, India |
| JEL: | D78 J16 D12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1662 |
| By: | Bhukta, Rikhia |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the unintended gendered effects of manufacturing growth in India, focusing on son preference. For identification, I leverage a place-based tax exemption policy under the Finance Act of 1994, which incentivized manufacturing sector investments in backward districts, and employ a regression discontinuity design using three nationally representative datasets. Results show increases in women's stated son preference, likelihood of having at least one son, and son-to-daughter ratios. Higher son preference is mediated through male-biased employment gains in the manufacturing sector, stagnant female employment, reinforced patriarchal gender norms, and dowry inflation. The findings underscore that not all drivers of structural transformation benefit women, as gender norms shape who gains from growth. By documenting these spillovers, this study broadens the understanding of manufacturing policies and their social costs. |
| Keywords: | Manufacturing Growth, Son Preference, Gender Norms, Place-Based Policies, Regression Discontinuity |
| JEL: | J16 O14 J13 O25 R58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1664 |
| By: | Francesco Chiocchio (CEMFI); Jeremy Greenwood (University of Pennsylvania); Nezih Guner (CEMFI); Karen Kopecky |
| Abstract: | At the onset of COVID-19, U.S. labor-force participation fell by about 3 percentage points and remained below pre-pandemic levels three years later. Recovery was slower in states hit harder by the pre-pandemic opioid crisis, measured by age-adjusted overdose death rates. An event study shows that a one-standard-deviation increase in pre-COVID opioid deaths led to a 0.9 percentage point drop in post-COVID labor participation. This effect wasn't due to differences in overall health across states and was stronger among those without a college degree. In high-opioid states, slower recovery was linked to more people leaving the workforce due to disability. |
| Keywords: | health, disability |
| JEL: | I12 I14 J11 J12 J21 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2025-007 |
| By: | Ina Ganguli; Megan MacGarvie |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the evolving trends and policy dynamics of international student migration, focusing on their implications for STEM workforce development and innovation. While the United States has remained a leading destination for international students, recent years have seen a plateau or decline in incoming students, contrasted by growth in countries like Canada, Australia, and emerging hubs such as China and India. International students, particularly in STEM fields, play a critical role in shaping host countries' innovation ecosystems, often transitioning to permanent residents and STEM workers. We review immigration policies, including post-graduation work and residency pathways, highlighting their varying impacts on student inflows and innovation. Policies in Canada and Australia have until recently eased these transitions, while restrictive measures in the U.S. and U.K. have posed challenges. By documenting these trends and policy shifts, we identify gaps in the literature and outline directions for future research at the intersection of international education, immigration, and innovation. |
| JEL: | I23 O31 J61 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34212 |
| By: | Alexandra Rottenkolber; Ola Ali; Gergely Mónus; Jiaxuan Li; Jisu Kim (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Daniela Perrotta (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Aliakbar Akbaritabar (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Mobility of researchers is a key driver of knowledge diffusion, innovation, and international collaboration. While prior research highlights the role of networks in shaping migration flows, the extent to which personal and institutional ties influence the direction of scientific mobility remains unclear. This study leverages large-scale digital trace data from Scopus, capturing complete mobility trajectories, co-authorship networks, and collaboration histories of 172, 000 authors. Using multinomial logistic regressions and discrete choice modelling, we systematically assess the effects of first- and second-order co-authorship ties and institutional linkages on scholars’ mobility outcomes, focusing on their first career move. Our findings demonstrate that not only first-, but also second-order co-authorship ties — connections to a scholar’s collaborators’ collaborators — are a strong predictor for the direction of a move. Scholars with extensive individual professional networks, as well as those migrating abroad, are more likely to move along individual ties. In contrast, those from prestigious institutions, as well as those moving nationally, tend to follow institutional routes more often. Discrete choice models further confirm that both individual and institutional ties increase the probability of moving to specific research institutions, with individual connections being more influential than institutional ones. This research provides empirical evidence for the role that individual and institutional connections play in shaping high-skilled labour mobility. Furthermore, it has important implications for migration theory and policy, emphasising the need to support national and international collaborative networks, both individual and institutional, to foster scientific exchange. |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-028 |
| By: | Lordan, Grace; Salehzadeh Nobari, Kaveh |
| Abstract: | Classical Manski bounds identify average treatment effects under minimal assumptions but, in finite samples, assume that latent conditional expectations are bounded by the sample’s own extrema or that the population extrema are known a priori—often untrue in firm-level data with heavy tails. We develop a finite-sample, concentration-driven band (concATE) that replaces that assumption with a Dvoretzky–Kiefer–Wolfowitz tail bound, combines it with delta-method variance, and allocates size via Bonferroni. The band extends to a group-sequential design that controls the family-wise error when the first “significant” diversity threshold is data-chosen. Applied to 945 listed firms (2015 Q2–2022 Q1) concATE shows that senior-level gender diversity raises Tobin’s Q once representation exceeds ≈ 30% in growth sectors and ≈ 65% in cyclical sectors. |
| JEL: | C21 C14 M14 L25 J16 |
| Date: | 2025–09–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129445 |
| By: | Chao Fu; Hsuan-Chih (Luke) Lin; Atsuko Tanaka |
| Abstract: | College loans serve as a double-edged sword for human capital investment: While they facilitate access to education, the burden of repayment may distort post-education investments in human capital. We examine the role of college loans and loan repayment policies through a structural model in which heterogeneous individuals, faced with borrowing limits, make dynamic decisions on consumption, borrowing/saving, labor supply, and costly human capital investment (via both college education and on-the-job learning a la Ben-Porath (1967)). We estimate two versions of the model using data from the NLSY79: one with natural borrowing limits and another with parameterized limits. Counterfactual simulations based on both models suggest that, relative to the standard fixed repayment plan, income-driven repayment (IDR) plans modestly increase educational attainment, lifetime earnings, and individual welfare. Although some generous IDR plans may result in losses for the loan program itself, overall government revenue is higher under IDRs than under the standard repayment plan when lifetime income taxes are accounted for, creating a win-win scenario for both individual welfare and government revenue. |
| JEL: | I20 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34221 |
| By: | Sjoerd van Alten; Silvia H. Barcellos; Leandro Carvalho; Titus J. Galama; Marina Aguiar Palma |
| Abstract: | Progress in understanding the role of genetics in intergenerational socioeconomic persistence has been hampered by challenges of measurement and identification. We examine how the genetics of one generation influences the SES of the next by linking genetic data from the Dutch Lifelines Cohort to tax records for 2006-2022. Our genetic measure is the polygenic index (PGI) for educational attainment. To isolate causal genetic effects, we exploit randomness in genetic transmission across generations. One generation’s genetics impacts the education, income, and wealth of the next. A 10-percentile increase in one generation’s PGI raises next generation’s education by 0.11 years. “Next-generation genetic effects” are also large relative to “same-generation genetic effects”: a 10-percentile increase in a person’s PGI raises their income by 0.9 percentiles and their child’s by 0.7 percentiles, indicating strong persistence across generations. We next turn to mechanisms: about half of next-generation genetic effects reflect direct genetic inheritance (“genetic transmission”). The remainder operates through environmental pathways (“genetic nurture”): one generation’s genetics shapes the circumstances in which the next is raised. This environmental channel is reinforced by assortative mating: high-PGI individuals select more-educated, higher-earning partners. Our findings underscore that genetics is one of the forces anchoring SES across generations. |
| JEL: | J6 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34208 |
| By: | Francisco Javier Lasso-Valderrama; Mario Andrés Ramos-Veloza |
| Abstract: | This study examines the cyclical and structural determinants of Labor Force Participation (LFP) in Colombia between 1984 and 2024, focusing on the gender gap and its implications for potential economic growth. We find that higher female participation drove the upward LFP trend until 2014 and that the added worker e ect predominates during economic fluctuations, particularly for women. Projecting the LFP to 2035 under various scenarios, we show that halving the gender gap could increase the potential annual GDP growth by up to 0.41 pp. This underscores the significant potential of increased female participation in driving economic growth and the need for supportive policy. *****RESUMEN: Este estudio analiza los factores cíclicos y estructurales que determinan la participación laboral en Colombia entre 1984 y 2024, centrándose en la brecha de género y sus implicaciones para el crecimiento económico potencial. Se encuentra que la mayor participación femenina impulsó la tendencia alcista hasta 2014, y que el efecto trabajador adicional predomina durante las fluctuaciones económicas, particularmente en las mujeres. Al proyectar la participación laboral hacia 2035 bajo distintos escenarios, se observa que reducir la brecha de género a la mitad podría incrementar el PIB potencial hasta en 0, 41 puntos porcentuales anuales, lo que subraya el significativo potencial del aumento de la participación femenina para impulsar el crecimiento económico y la necesidad de políticas de apoyo. |
| Keywords: | Labor force participation, Gender gap, Demographics, Economic growth, Participación Laboral, Brecha de género, Demografía, Crecimiento económico |
| JEL: | J16 J21 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:1326 |
| By: | Hamid Noghanibehambari; Jason Fletcher |
| Abstract: | An old and debated line of research examines the income-mortality relationship and finds mixed evidence. In this paper, we re-evaluate previous studies using a new dataset and implementing a difference-in-difference model based on a Notch in Social Security retirement benefits to overcome selection and endogeneity issues. We employ Social Security Administration death records and find a positive income-longevity relationship. Moreover, we find more pronounced effects among low-educated individuals and people from low socioeconomic status families. Analyses using census data suggest that part of the reductions in retirement income are offset by wage income due to post-retirement labor force participation. Past age 80, the net adverse effects of the policy on both income and longevity become more pronounced. |
| JEL: | H40 H50 I1 I18 J1 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34199 |
| By: | Hyunduk Suh; Nathaniel A. Throckmorton |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how very low fertility rates in East Asia might affect inflation in the face of fiscal limits. In a calibrated overlapping-generations model, low fertility rates cause the debt-to-GDP ratio to rise, which can push the tax rate to a political ceiling and force either monetary accommodation or reduced transfers to retirees. The fiscal limit creates inflationary pressure relative to a scenario with no fiscal limit, adding to our understanding of possible inflation outcomes in aging economies. Korea faces the strongest demographic headwind and is projected to experience the earliest fiscal limit and highest inflation rates, with inflation projected to peak roughly 10 years later and 2.5pp higher with a fiscal limit than without one. Taiwan’s more favorable initial fiscal conditions help reduce inflationary pressure, and China benefits from a delayed demographic transition that leads to lower inflation, despite worse initial fiscal conditions than Taiwan. In all countries, a higher tax rate ceiling or older retirement age effectively reduce peak inflation. |
| Keywords: | low fertility; demographic transition; population aging; East Asia; overlapping generations model; fiscal sustainability; inflation projections |
| JEL: | J11 H63 E52 E63 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–07–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwm:wpaper:171 |
| By: | Hicks, Jeffrey |
| Abstract: | How does in-person support affect access to safety net programs? I study this question by examining how the closure of field offices has changed welfare and disability assistance caseloads. Using rich administrative data and a staggered difference-in-differences design, I estimate that closures, on average, reduced local caseloads by 11.5% for welfare and a statistically insignificant 1.6% for disability assistance. Declines in welfare caseloads (i) occurred across demographic, health, education, and eligibility groups, (ii) were somewhat larger among young and healthier individuals, and (iii) were suggestively larger among persons less familiar with the programs. On the whole, I find limited change in the relative targeting of benefits. |
| Keywords: | welfare, disability assistance, screening, take-up |
| JEL: | H31 H83 H75 H53 I32 I38 J18 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:clefwp:325487 |
| By: | Contreras Silva, Valentina; Orsini, Chiara; Özcan, Berkay; Koehler, Johann |
| Abstract: | We present results from a field experiment that tests the effects of varying gender and linguistic group composition on performance and on group-members’ perception that their voice is heard when completing complex collaborative work within a low scrutiny environment. We randomize individuals enrolled in a postgraduate course populated by mostly women and non-native English speakers into small teams within larger, exogenously assigned seminar groups. Groups are tasked with complex and deliberative research assignments over three months. Using administrative and survey data, we find that a higher share of women in seminar groups significantly benefits the academic performance of group members—an effect driven by a positive effect on female native English speakers — while a greater proportion of women in small teams improves non-native language speakers’ perception of being heard. |
| Keywords: | team dynamics; gender; linguistic diversity; peer effects; higher education; field experiment |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128788 |