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Exchange rate volatility and export growth in Nigeria

Author

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  • Olugbenga Onafowora
  • Oluwole Owoye
Abstract
This article examines the impact of exchange rate volatility on Nigeria's exports to its most important trading-partner-the United States over the quarterly period January 1980 to April 2001. Using cointegration and vector error correction (VECM) framework, empirical tests indicate the presence of a unique cointegrating vector linking real exports, real foreign income, relative export prices and real exchange rate volatility in the long run. Furthermore, the results show that increases in the volatility of the real exchange rate raise uncertainty about profits to be made which exert significant negative effects on exports both in the short- and long-run. Our results also show that improvements in the terms of trade (represented by declines in the real exchange rate) and real foreign income exert positive effects on export activity. Most importantly, we found that the trade liberalization and economic reform policies implemented in the post-1986 structural adjustment period contributed to Nigeria's export performance. Overall, our findings suggest that Nigeria's exporting activities can be further boosted by policies aimed at achieving and maintaining a stable competitive real exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Olugbenga Onafowora & Oluwole Owoye, 2008. "Exchange rate volatility and export growth in Nigeria," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(12), pages 1547-1556.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:40:y:2008:i:12:p:1547-1556
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840600827676
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2000. "Exchange Rate Effects on the Volume of Trade Flows: An Empirical Analysis Employing High-Frequency Data," CeNDEF Workshop Papers, January 2001 5B.1, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    2. Paul De Grauwe, 1988. "Exchange Rate Variability and the Slowdown in Growth of International Trade," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 63-84, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Demachi, Kazue, 2012. "The effect of crude oil price change and volatility on Nigerian economy," MPRA Paper 41413, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Chandan Sharma, 2019. "Exchange rate volatility and exports from India: a commodity-level panel data analysis," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(1), pages 23-44, June.
    3. Salma Zahir & Muneeba Shahid & Qurat-ul-ain Altaf & Mehwish Nawaz, 2023. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Affect Foreign Trade? The Empirical Evidence from Some Selected MENA Countries," Journal of Policy Research (JPR), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(2), pages 689-700.
    4. Ranjini L. Thaver & Christina Bova, 2014. "An Estimation of Ecuador's Export Demand Function with the US," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 8(1), pages 89-102.
    5. Gor A. Khachatryan & Aleksandr Grigoryan, 2020. "Export Growth Dynamics and Real Exchange Rate: Evidence from Armenia," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 493-509, July.
    6. Erdal Demirhan & Banu Demirhan, 2015. "The Dynamic Effect of ExchangeRate Volatility on Turkish Exports: Parsimonious Error-Correction Model Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(4), pages 429-451, September.
    7. Mekbib Gebretsadik Haile & Geoff Pugh, 2013. "Does exchange rate volatility discourage international trade? A meta-regression analysis," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 321-350, April.
    8. Heidi Aly & Rana Hosni, 2018. "Examining the nexus between exchange rate volatility and export performance: Empirical evidence from the Egyptian experience," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 14(3), pages 542-560, June.
    9. E. M. Ekanayake & Ranjini L. Thaver & Daniel Plante, 2012. "The Effects Of Exchange Rate Volatility On South Africa’S Trade With The European Union," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 6(3), pages 13-26.
    10. Carlos Moslares & E. M. Ekanayake, 2018. "The Effect Of Real Exchange Rate Volatility On Exports In The Baltic Region," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 12(1), pages 23-38.
    11. Zelekha, Yaron & Bar-Efrat, Ohad, 2011. "The link between exchange rate uncertainty and Israeli exports to the US: 2SLS and cointegration approaches," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 100-109, June.
    12. repec:ibf:ijbfre:v:11:y:2017:i:2:p:23-38 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Sharma, Chandan & Pal, Debdatta, 2018. "Exchange rate volatility and India's cross-border trade: A pooled mean group and nonlinear cointegration approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 230-246.
    14. Carlos Moslares & E. M. Ekanayake, 2015. "The Impact Of Exchange Rate Volatility On Commodity Trade Between The United States And Spain," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 9(4), pages 37-49.
    15. Muteba Mwamba, John & Dube, Sandile, 2014. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade between South Africa, China and USA: The case of the manufacturing sector," MPRA Paper 64389, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. E. M. Ekanayake & John R. Ledgerwood & Sabrina D’Souza, 2010. "The Real Exchange Rate Volatility And U.S. Exports: An Empirical Investigation," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 4(1), pages 23-35.
    17. Hussaini Umaru & Aguda Niyi A. & Nordiana Osagie Davies, 2018. "The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth of West African English-Speaking Countries," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 8(4), pages 131-143, October.
    18. Joseph Dery Nyeadi & Oswald Atiga & Charles Amoyea Atogenzoya, 2014. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Movement on Export: Empirical Evidence from Ghana," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 4(3), pages 41-48, July.

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