Presidential election in Minnesota, 2020

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Minnesota
2020 presidential election

Democratic primary: March 3, 2020
Democratic winner: Joe Biden

Republican primary: March 3, 2020
Republican winner: Donald Trump

Electoral College: 10 votes
2020 winner: Joe Biden (D)
2016 winner: Hillary Clinton (D)
2012 winner: Barack Obama (D)

Presidential election by state, 2020

Former Vice President Joe Biden (D) won the presidential election in Minnesota on November 3, 2020. Biden won the presidential election with 306 electoral votes to President Donald Trump's (R) 232 electoral votes.

Biden won the Democratic primary on March 3, 2020.[1] Trump won the uncontested Republican primary; he was allocated all of the state's 39 delegates.[2][3]

Minnesota was one of four states (alongside Maryland, Missouri, and Wisconsin) with 10 votes in the Electoral College, making it tied for 18th-most. Minnesota was carried by the Democratic presidential candidate in every election between 1976 and 2016; the last Republican to carry the state was Richard Nixon (R). Between 1900 and 2016, Minnesota backed the Democratic presidential candidate in 63.33% of elections and the Republican candidate in 36.67%.

In the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton (D) carried Minnesota with 46.4% of the vote to Trump's 44.9%.

This page includes the following sections:

Candidates and election results

General election


Presidential election in Minnesota, 2020
 
Candidate/Running mate
%
Popular votes
Electoral votes
✔
Image of
Image of
Joe Biden/Kamala D. Harris (D)
 
52.4
 
1,717,077 10
Image of
Image of
Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R)
 
45.3
 
1,484,065 0
Image of
Image of
Jo Jorgensen/Spike Cohen (L)
 
1.1
 
34,976 0
Image of
Image of
Howie Hawkins/Angela Nicole Walker (G)
 
0.3
 
10,033 0
Image of
Image of
Ye/Michelle Tidball (Independent)
 
0.2
 
7,940 0
Image of
Image of
Brock Pierce/Karla Ballard (Independent)
 
0.2
 
5,651 0
Image of
Image of
Roque De La Fuente/Darcy Richardson (Independence-Alliance Party of Minnesota)
 
0.2
 
5,611 0
Image of
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Gloria La Riva/Leonard Peltier (Party for Socialism and Liberation)
 
0.0
 
1,210 0
Image of
Image of
Alyson Kennedy/Malcolm Jarrett (Socialist Workers Party)
 
0.0
 
643 0
  Other write-in votes
 
0.3
 
9,965 0

Incumbents are bolded and underlined The results have been certified.

Total votes: 3,277,171



Primary election

Minnesota Democratic presidential primary on March 3, 2020
 
Candidate
%
Votes
Pledged delegates
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Official_portrait_of_Vice_President_Joe_Biden.jpg
Joe Biden
 
38.6
 
287,553 38
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Bernie_Sanders.jpg
Bernie Sanders
 
29.9
 
222,431 27
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Elizabeth_Warren--Official_113th_Congressional_Portrait--.jpg
Elizabeth Warren
 
15.4
 
114,674 10
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/400px-Mike_Bloomberg_Headshot.jpg
Michael Bloomberg
 
8.3
 
61,882 0
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Amy_Klobuchar.jpg
Amy Klobuchar
 
5.6
 
41,530 0
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/150px-Pete_buttigieg.jpg
Pete Buttigieg
 
1.0
 
7,616 0
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/TulsiGabbardReplace.jpg
Tulsi Gabbard
 
0.3
 
2,504 0
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Screen_Shot_2019-02-21_at_3.25.16_PM.png
Andrew Yang
 
0.2
 
1,749 0
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Tom_Steyer.jpg
Thomas Steyer
 
0.1
 
551 0
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Michael_Bennet.jpg
Michael Bennet
 
0.0
 
315 0
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/3HaJVw3AYyXBdF9iSRPp977CBFrGCMDhc1w2rHKAC1yEKppTQoGMxtNCjAfntRbE3vPfKMrXcV5x6tsZ7rfuCzeUq2zG7qQsmao4URt.jpeg
Marianne Williamson
 
0.0
 
226 0
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/CoryBooker.jpg
Cory Booker
 
0.0
 
197 0
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/John_Delaney_113th_Congress_official_photo.jpg
John Delaney
 
0.0
 
172 0
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/JulianCastro1.jpg
Julián Castro
 
0.0
 
114 0
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Deval_Patrick.jpg
Deval Patrick
 
0.0
 
72 0
  Other
 
0.4
 
2,612 0

 Source

Total votes: 744,198 • Total pledged delegates: 75


Minnesota Republican presidential primary on March 3, 2020
 
Candidate
%
Votes
Pledged delegates
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/473px-Official_Portrait_of_President_Donald_Trump.jpg
Donald Trump
 
97.7
 
137,275 39
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Bill_Weld_campaign_portrait.jpg
Bill Weld
 
0.3
 
443 0
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/RoqueDeLaFuente.jpg
Roque De La Fuente
 
0.0
 
16 0
  Other
 
2.0
 
2,821 0

 Source

Total votes: 140,555 • Total pledged delegates: 39

Polls in Minnesota

Pivot Counties in Minnesota

See also: Election results, 2020: Pivot Counties' margins of victory analysis

Pivot Counties are the 206 counties nationwide Ballotpedia identified as having voted for Barack Obama (D) in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Media and political observers sometimes refer to these counties as swing counties.

Ballotpedia defines Pivot Counties Trump won in 2020 as Retained Pivot Counties and those Joe Biden (D) won as Boomerang Pivot Counties.

Trump won 181 Retained Pivot Counties across 32 states to Biden's 25 Boomerang Pivot Counties across 16 states. Trump's median margin of victory was 13.2 percentage points in those 181 counties, while Biden's median margin of victory was 3.4 percentage points among the 25 he won.[4][5]

In 2020, Minnesota had 15 Retained Pivot Counties, four Boomerang Pivot Counties—the largest number in a battleground state—nine solid Democratic counties, and 59 solid Republican counties.

Biden received 52.4% of the vote to Trump's 45.3%, expanding the Democratic margin to 5.6 percentage points. Votes for third party and independent candidates decreased by 6.3 percentage points from 8.6% in 2016 to 2.3% in 2020, the largest decrease in any battleground state containing a Pivot County. The largest decrease for third party and independent candidates came in Boomerang Pivot Counties at -7.5 percentage points.

Biden's largest margin change came from Solid Democratic counties, where he increased the Democratic vote share by 7.0 percentage points. Trump's vote share decreased by 0.5 points, the only category of counties where he did not increase his vote share. Trump's largest gain came from Retained Pivot Counties, where he increased his share by 2.2 percentage points to Biden's 3.7 point increase.

The table below compares margins in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. Percentages show the share of the vote received by a candidate. Margins and changes are shown as changes in percentage points. The overall winner of a given category can be found under the "2020" data. The "Percentage point change" section shows changes in vote share and in margins. Figures were calculated by combining the vote totals across all counties of a given category and may not equal 100% due to rounding. Click [show] beneath the table to view vote totals.

Minnesota presidential election results by county category, 2016-2020
Year # 2016 2020 Percentage point change
Clinton Trump Third party Margin Biden Trump Third party Margin Democratic Republican Third party Margin
Retained 15 39.3% 52.5% 8.2% R+13.3 43.0% 54.8% 2.2% R+11.8 +3.7 +2.2 -6.0 D+1.5
Boomerang 4 43.5% 46.4% 10.0% R+2.9 50.3% 47.1% 2.6% D+3.2 +6.8 +0.7 -7.5 D+6.1
Solid Dem. 9 57.6% 33.5% 8.9% D+24.0 64.6% 33.1% 2.3% D+31.5 +7.0 -0.5 -6.6 D+7.5
Solid Repub. 59 32.4% 59.4% 8.2% R+27.0 37.2% 60.5% 2.3% R+23.2 +4.8 +1.1 -5.9 D+3.8
All 87 46.4% 44.9% 8.6% D+1.5 52.4% 45.3% 2.3% D+7.1 +6.0 +0.4 -6.3 D+5.6



Solid Democratic counties made up 63.2% of Biden's new votes in 2020 and Solid Republican counties made up 58.7% of Trump's. The state's 15 Retained Pivot Counties made up 4.5% and 6.6% of Biden's and Trump's respective vote totals, while Boomerang Pivot Counties accounted for 3.4% and 3.6%, respectively.

The table below shows how much of a candidate's vote total came from a particular county category. Data under "New votes, 2020" shows the percentage of a candidate's new votes by county category compared to 2016 vote totals.

Percentage of votes by county category in Minnesota's 2016 and 2020 presidential elections
Year # 2016 2020 New votes, 2020
Clinton Trump Biden Trump Democratic
votes		 Republican
votes
Total votes 87 1,367,825 1,323,232 1,717,077 1,484,065 +349,252 +160,833
Retained 15 4.7% 6.5% 4.5% 6.6% 3.6% 7.4%
Boomerang 4 3.4% 3.8% 3.4% 3.6% 3.1% 2.6%
Solid Dem. 9 65.2% 39.3% 64.8% 38.4% 63.2% 31.3%
Solid Repub. 59 26.6% 50.5% 27.3% 51.3% 30.0% 58.7%

PredictIt market in Minnesota

See also: PredictIt markets in the 2020 presidential election

What is a PredictIt market?

PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. For instance, an election contested between four candidates would be represented by eight separate contracts, with each contract correlating to a particular candidate winning or losing the election.

The price of a share in each individual contract rises and falls based on market demand. Once the event's outcome is decided, holders of shares that correlate with the correct outcome receive a $1 payout for each share they held.

For example, a user buys 10 shares at 20 cents each in a presidential primary saying Candidate A will win. If Candidate A wins the election, the user earns $10. If the candidate loses, the user earns no money and loses his original $2 investment.

Why do PredictIt markets matter?

Services such as PredictIt are being used to gain insight into the likely outcome of elections. Microsoft Research economist David Rothschild argues that they are better suited to the task than polls: "I can create a poll that can mimic everything about a prediction market...except markets have a way of incentivizing you to come back at 2 a.m. and update your answer."[6][7][8]

Campaign events in Minnesota

This section features clips of Biden and Trump at presidential campaign events in Minnesota during the 2020 general election.

Biden in Minnesota

Biden in St. Paul, October 30, 2020
Biden in Hermantown, September 18, 2020

Trump in Minnesota

Trump in Rochester, October 30, 2020
Trump in Duluth, September 30, 2020
Trump in Bemidji, September 18, 2020
Trump in Manktao, August 17, 2020

Government response to coronavirus pandemic in Minnesota

Summary of changes to election dates and procedures

Minnesota modified its absentee/mail-in voting and candidate filing procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: The absentee/mail-in ballot postmark deadline was extended to November 3, 2020; the receipt deadline was extended to November 10, 2020. The witness requirement for absentee/mail-in ballots was suspended.
  • Candidate filing procedures: General election candidates were allowed to submit filing forms and petitions electronically.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

Frequently asked questions

See also: Ballotpedia's 2020 Election Help Desk: Presidential election

The 2020 election took place against a backdrop of uncertainty. Our readers had questions about what to expect in elections at all levels of government, from the casting of ballots to the certification of final results. Ballotpedia's 2020 Election Help Desk was designed to answer those questions. Ballotpedia is in the process of compiling and answering frequently asked questions related to the 2020 elections. Questions related to this election will be available soon.


Additional resources

Democratic primary

See also: Democratic presidential nomination, 2020
HIGHLIGHTS
  • Minnesota held its Democratic primary election on March 3, 2020.
  • Minnesota had an estimated 91 delegates comprised of 75 pledged delegates and 16 superdelegates. Delegate allocation was proportional.
  • The Democratic primary was open, meaning all voters were able to vote in the election.


    • Former Vice President Joe Biden (D) was formally nominated as the Democratic presidential nominee at the 2020 Democratic National Convention on August 18, 2020.[9] The convention was originally scheduled to take place July 13-16, 2020.[10] Organizers postponed the event in response to the coronavirus pandemic.

    Prior to the national convention, individual state caucuses and primaries were held to allocate convention delegates. These delegates vote at the convention to select the nominee. In 2020, a Democratic presidential candidate needed support from 1,991 delegates to secure the nomination.

    With the plurality of pledged delegates, Biden became the presumptive Democratic nominee on April 8, 2020, after Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) suspended his presidential campaign.[11] Biden crossed the delegate threshold necessary to win the nomination on June 5, 2020.[12]

    Biden announced U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris (D) as his running mate on August 11, 2020. Harris is the first Black woman to appear on a major party's ticket in the United States.[13]

    Republican primary

    See also: Republican presidential nomination, 2020
    HIGHLIGHTS
  • Minnesota held its Republican primary election on March 3, 2020.
  • Minnesota had an estimated 39 delegates. Delegate allocation was proportional.
  • The Republican primary was open, meaning all voters were able to vote in the election.


    • The Republican Party selected President Donald Trump as its presidential nominee at the 2020 Republican National Convention, which was held from August 24-27, 2020.[14]

    Prior to the national convention, individual state caucuses and primaries were held to allocate convention delegates. These delegates vote at the convention to select the nominee. Trump crossed the delegate threshold necessary to win the nomination—1,276 delegates—on March 17, 2020.

    George H.W. Bush (R) was the last incumbent to face a serious primary challenge, defeating political commentator Pat Buchanan in 1992. He was also the last president to lose his re-election campaign. Franklin Pierce (D) was the first and only elected president to lose his party's nomination in 1856.[15]

    Sixteen U.S. presidents—approximately one-third—have won two consecutive elections.



    Candidate filing requirements

    See also: Ballot access requirements for presidential candidates in Minnesota

    The tables below detail filing requirements for presidential candidates in Minnesota in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Minnesota, click here.

    Presidential primary candidates

    Party chairs determine which candidates will appear on primary election ballots.

    Independent presidential candidates

    Filing requirements for independent candidates in Minnesota, 2020
    State Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
    Minnesota 2,000 Fixed by statute N/A N/A 8/18/2020 Source

    Historical election results

    2016

    General election

    U.S. presidential election, Minnesota, 2016
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngHillary Clinton/Tim Kaine 46.4% 1,367,716 10
         Republican Donald Trump/Mike Pence 44.9% 1,322,951 0
         Libertarian Gary Johnson/Bill Weld 3.8% 112,972 0
         Green Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka 1.3% 36,985 0
         Constitution Darrell Castle/Scott Bradley 0.3% 9,456 0
         Legal Marijuana Now Dan R. Vacek/Mark G. Elworth Jr. 0.4% 11,291 0
         Socialist Workers Party Alyson Kennedy/Osborne Hart 0.1% 1,672 0
         American Delta Party Roque De La Fuente/Michael Steinberg 0% 1,431 0
         Independence Evan McMullin/Nathan Johnson 1.8% 53,076 0
         - Write-in votes 0.9% 27,263 0
    Total Votes 2,944,813 10
    Election results via: Minnesota Secretary of State

    Primary election

    Minnesota Democratic Caucus, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes Delegates
    Hillary Clinton 38.1% 78,317 31
    Green check mark transparent.pngBernie Sanders 61.2% 125,635 46
    Martin O'Malley 0.1% 153 0
    Roque De La Fuente 0% 53 0
    Other 0.1% 213 0
    Uncommitted 0.5% 1,067 0
    Totals 205,438 77
    Source: Minnesota Secretary of State and CNN


    Minnesota Republican Caucus, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes Delegates
    Donald Trump 21.4% 24,473 8
    Green check mark transparent.pngMarco Rubio 36.2% 41,397 17
    Ted Cruz 29% 33,181 13
    John Kasich 5.7% 6,565 0
    Ben Carson 7.4% 8,422 0
    Other 0.2% 207 0
    Totals 114,245 38
    Source: Minnesota Secretary of State and CNN

    2012

    U.S. presidential election, Minnesota, 2012
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngBarack Obama/Joe Biden Incumbent 52.7% 1,546,167 10
         Republican Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan 45% 1,320,225 0
         Libertarian Gary Johnson/Jim Gray 1.2% 35,098 0
         Green Jill Stein/Cheri Honkala 0.4% 13,023 0
         Constitutional Government Dean Morstad/Josh Franke-Hyland 0% 1,092 0
         Grassroots Jim Carlson/George McMahon 0.1% 3,149 0
         Justice Party Ross C. 'Rocky' Anderson/Luis J. Rodriguez (write-in) 0.1% 1,996 0
         Socialism and Liberation Peta Lindsay/Yari Osorio 0% 397 0
         Socialist Workers James Harris/Maura Deluca 0% 1,051 0
         Constitution Virgil Goode/Jim Clymer 0.1% 3,722 0
         Write-in Write-in candidates 0.4% 10,641 0
    Total Votes 2,936,561 10
    Election results via: Minnesota Secretary of State

    2008

    U.S. presidential election, Minnesota, 2008
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngBarack Obama/Joe Biden 54.1% 1,573,354 10
         Republican John McCain/Sarah Palin 43.8% 1,275,409 0
         Independent Ralph Nader/Matt Gonzalez 1% 30,152 0
         Libertarian Bob Barr/Wayne Allyn Root 0.3% 9,174 0
         Green Cynthia McKinney/Rosa Clemente 0.2% 5,174 0
         Constitution Chuck Baldwin/Darrell Castle 0.2% 6,787 0
         Socialist Workers Róger Calero/Alyson Kennedy 0% 790 0
         Write-in Write-in candidates 0.3% 9,529 0
    Total Votes 2,910,369 10
    Election results via: Minnesota Secretary of State

    Presidential statewide margins of victory of 5 percentage points or fewer, 1948-2016

    See also: Presidential statewide margins of victory of 5 percentage points or fewer, 1948-2016

    The following map shows the number of times, in presidential elections held between 1948 and 2016, that the margin of victory was 5 percentage points or fewer in each state.

    • Wisconsin was the state with the most frequently narrow margins during this time period, appearing on the list in 10 presidential elections.
    • Five states appeared eight times: Florida, Missouri, Nevada, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
    • The state with the narrowest margin of victory was Florida in 2000 at 537 votes or one-hundredth of a percentage point.

    Historical election trends

    See also: Presidential voting history by state

    Minnesota presidential election results (1900-2024)

    • 21 Democratic wins
    • 10 Republican wins
    • 1 other win
    Year 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024
    Winning Party R R R P[16] R R R R D D D D D R R D D D R D D D D D D D D D D D D D


    See also: Presidential election accuracy

    Below is an analysis of Minnesota's voting record in presidential elections. The state's accuracy is based on the number of times a state has voted for a winning presidential candidate. The majority of statistical data is from the U.S. National Archives and Records Administration and was compiled, here, by Ballotpedia, unless otherwise noted.

    Presidential election voting record in Minnesota, 1900-2016

    Between 1900 and 2016:

    • Minnesota participated in 30 presidential elections.
    • Minnesota voted for the winning presidential candidate 70 percent of the time. The average accuracy of voting for winning presidential candidates for all 50 states in this time frame was 72.31 percent.[17]
    • Minnesota voted Democratic 63.33 percent of the time and Republican 36.67 percent of the time.

    Third party vote

    In 1912, Woodrow Wilson ran as the Democratic candidate, Theodore Roosevelt ran as a Progressive candidate, and William H. Taft ran as the Republican candidate. Taft won Utah and Vermont, while Roosevelt won 11 electoral votes (Wilson got two) from California, 15 from Michigan, 12 from Minnesota, 38 in Pennsylvania, five from South Dakota, and seven from Washington.[18]

    Presidential election voting record in Minnesota, 2000-2016

    *An asterisk indicates that that candidate also won the national electoral vote in that election.

    State profile

    See also: Minnesota and Minnesota elections, 2019
    USA Minnesota location map.svg

    Partisan data

    The information in this section was current as of May 7, 2019

    Presidential voting pattern

    Congressional delegation

    State executives

    State legislature

    Minnesota Party Control: 1992-2024
    Four years of Democratic trifectas  •  No Republican trifectas
    Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

    Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
    Governor R R R R R R R I I I I R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
    Senate D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D R R D D D D R R R R R R D D
    House D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D R R D D R R R R D D D D D D

    Minnesota quick stats
    More Minnesota coverage on Ballotpedia:


    Demographic data for Minnesota
     MinnesotaU.S.
    Total population:5,482,435316,515,021
    Land area (sq mi):79,6273,531,905
    Race and ethnicity**
    White:84.8%73.6%
    Black/African American:5.5%12.6%
    Asian:4.4%5.1%
    Native American:1%0.8%
    Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
    Two or more:2.7%3%
    Hispanic/Latino:5%17.1%
    Education
    High school graduation rate:92.4%86.7%
    College graduation rate:33.7%29.8%
    Income
    Median household income:$61,492$53,889
    Persons below poverty level:12.2%11.3%
    Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
    Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Minnesota.
    **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.


    Presidential election by state

    See also: Presidential election by state, 2020

    Click on a state below to navigate to information about the presidential election in that jurisdiction.

    https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_election_in_STATE,_2020

    See also

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ Chicago Sun-Times, "Super Tuesday kicks off with seven states for Biden, two for Sanders," March 3, 2020
    2. ↑ USA Today, "Minnesota Republican Primary Results," accessed March 3, 2020
    3. ↑ Minnesota Secretary of State, "Statewide Results for U.S. Presidential Nominee," accessed March 3, 2020
    4. ↑ This analysis does not include counties in Alaska and certain independent cities due to variations in vote total reporting.
    5. ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
    6. ↑ Nature, "The power of prediction markets," October 18, 2016
    7. ↑ Politico, "Meet the 'stock market' for politics," October 31, 2014
    8. ↑ U.S. Presidential General Election Results, "2008 Electoral Map Based on the Intrade Prediction Market," accessed January 25, 2018
    9. ↑ Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, "2020 DNC in Milwaukee pushed back to week of August 17 in response to coronavirus pandemic," April 2, 2020
    10. ↑ The New York Times, "Milwaukee Picked as Site of 2020 Democratic National Convention," March 11, 2019
    11. ↑ Talking Points Memo, "Bernie Sanders Ends 2020 Bid, Making Biden Presumptive Dem Nominee," April 8, 2020
    12. ↑ AP, "Biden formally clinches Democratic presidential nomination," June 5, 2020
    13. ↑ CNBC, "Joe Biden picks Sen. Kamala Harris to be his vice presidential running mate, making her the first black woman on a major ticket," August 11, 2020
    14. ↑ Charlotte Observer, "Here’s when the 2020 Republican National Convention will be in Charlotte," October 1, 2018
    15. ↑ NPR, "When Has A President Been Denied His Party's Nomination?" July 22, 2009
    16. ↑ Progressive Party
    17. ↑ This average includes states like Arizona, New Mexico, and Oklahoma, which did not participate in all 30 presidential elections between 1900 and 2016. It does not include Washington, D.C., which cast votes for president for the first time in 1964, or Alaska and Hawaii, which cast votes for president for the first time in 1960.
    18. ↑ U.S. National Archives and Records Administration, "Electoral Votes, 1904-1912," accessed June 21, 2016
    19. ↑ This number refers to the number of times that the state voted for the winning presidential candidate between 2000 and 2016.
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