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Simulating Travel Reliability

Author

Listed:
  • Noland, Robert B.
  • Small, Kenneth A.
  • Koskenoja, Pia Maria
  • Chu, Xuehao
Abstract
We present a simulation model designed to determine the impact on congestion of policies for dealing with travel time uncertainty. The model combines a supply side model of congestion delay with a discrete choice econometric demand model that predicts scheduling choices for morning commute trips. The supply model describes congestion technology and exogenously specifies the probability, severity, and duration of non-recurrent events. From these, given traffic volumes, a distribution of travel times is generated, from which a mean, a standard deviation, and a probability of arriving late are calculated. The demand model uses these outputs from the supply model as independent variables and choices are forecast using sample enumeration and a synthetic sample of work start times and free flow travel times. The process is iterated until a stable congestion pattern is achieved. We report on the components of expected cost and the average travel delay for selected simulations.

Suggested Citation

  • Noland, Robert B. & Small, Kenneth A. & Koskenoja, Pia Maria & Chu, Xuehao, 1997. "Simulating Travel Reliability," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt30w220k0, University of California Transportation Center.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:uctcwp:qt30w220k0
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    Keywords

    Social and Behavioral Sciences;

    JEL classification:

    • C00 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - General
    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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