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The Southern Megalopolis: Using the Past to Predict the Future of Urban Sprawl in the Southeast U.S

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  • Adam J Terando
  • Jennifer Costanza
  • Curtis Belyea
  • Robert R Dunn
  • Alexa McKerrow
  • Jaime A Collazo
Abstract
The future health of ecosystems is arguably as dependent on urban sprawl as it is on human-caused climatic warming. Urban sprawl strongly impacts the urban ecosystems it creates and the natural and agro-ecosystems that it displaces and fragments. Here, we project urban sprawl changes for the next 50 years for the fast-growing Southeast U.S. Previous studies have focused on modeling population density, but the urban extent is arguably as important as population density per se in terms of its ecological and conservation impacts. We develop simulations using the SLEUTH urban growth model that complement population-driven models but focus on spatial pattern and extent. To better capture the reach of low-density suburban development, we extend the capabilities of SLEUTH by incorporating street-network information. Our simulations point to a future in which the extent of urbanization in the Southeast is projected to increase by 101% to 192%. Our results highlight areas where ecosystem fragmentation is likely, and serve as a benchmark to explore the challenging tradeoffs between ecosystem health, economic growth and cultural desires.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam J Terando & Jennifer Costanza & Curtis Belyea & Robert R Dunn & Alexa McKerrow & Jaime A Collazo, 2014. "The Southern Megalopolis: Using the Past to Predict the Future of Urban Sprawl in the Southeast U.S," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(7), pages 1-8, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0102261
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0102261
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sohl, Terry & Sayler, Kristi, 2008. "Using the FORE-SCE model to project land-cover change in the southeastern United States," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 219(1), pages 49-65.
    2. Jan K. Brueckner, 2000. "Urban Sprawl: Diagnosis and Remedies," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 23(2), pages 160-171, April.
    3. Evan H Girvetz & Chris Zganjar & George T Raber & Edwin P Maurer & Peter Kareiva & Joshua J Lawler, 2009. "Applied Climate-Change Analysis: The Climate Wizard Tool," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 4(12), pages 1-19, December.
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    Cited by:

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    7. Tomao, Antonio & Quaranta, Giovanni & Salvia, Rosanna & Vinci, Sabato & Salvati, Luca, 2021. "Revisiting the ‘southern mood’? Post-crisis Mediterranean urbanities between economic downturns and land-use change," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    8. Allison Bridges, 2016. "The role of institutions in sustainable urban governance," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 169-179, November.
    9. C. Brannon Andersen & R. Kyle Donovan & John E. Quinn, 2015. "Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production (HANPP) in an Agriculturally-Dominated Watershed, Southeastern USA," Land, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-28, June.
    10. Hu, Xinlei & Wang, Xiaokun (Cara) & Ni, Linglin & Shi, Feng, 2022. "The impact of intercity economic complementarity on HSR volume in the context of megalopolization," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).

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