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The Impacts of African Continental Free Trade Area on COMESA

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Abstract
This study analyses the impact of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) using a recursively dynamic global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, MAGNET. The study considers two policy measures: cuts in bilateral tariff rates and the reduction of non-tariff measures (NTMs) in intra-African trade flows. The results show that AfCFTA can generate an additional 0.55% increase in COMESA's economic growth by 2035, with a corresponding increase in household disposable income and purchasing power for lower-income households. The study also finds that COMESA will increase its total trade, especially with African trade partners, and diversify its export and import markets in Africa. The AfCFTA is expected to promote industrialization in COMESA through trade creation in manufactured goods and increase the share of agricultural consumption imports. However, non-tariff barriers remain a challenge in facilitating trade into the African markets.

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  • SIMOLA Antti & FERRARI Emanuele & NECHIFOR Victor & BOYSEN Ole & KIBIRU Jane & ONYANGO Christopher Hugh, 2025. "The Impacts of African Continental Free Trade Area on COMESA," JRC Research Reports JRC138532, Joint Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc138532
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    1. Malcolm, Gerard, 1998. "Modeling Country Risk And Capital Flows In Gtap," Technical Papers 28707, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Angel Aguiar & Maksym Chepeliev & Erwin L. Corong & Robert McDougall & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2019. "The GTAP Data Base: Version 10," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 4(1), pages 1-27, June.
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