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COVID-19: socioeconomic impacts and recovery in Ethiopia

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Abstract
This technical report assesses the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for the economic performance and poverty incidence in Ethiopia for 2019/20 and 2020/21. It takes into account the impacts of the pandemic on four channels: a) factor productivity, b) trade costs, c) export demand and tourism, and d) remittances and FDI. Through the inclusion of the Ethiopian government responses of stimulus spending, job protection and business support, the report evaluates the effectiveness of these measures for the economic recovery to pre-COVID-19 pathways. By using a macroeconomic multi-sectoral model, the study includes results at national (GDP, supply, demand, trade), sectoral (output and prices) and household (welfare) levels. The household food expenditure results are then included as income measures in a poverty analysis module to further characterise the effects of the pandemic on poverty headcount, gap and severity. In annualised terms, the modelling results show that the COVID-19 impacts could have been significant across all macroeconomic metrics had the government not intervened. The GDP would have decreased from pre-COVID-19 projections by -11.1% in 2019/20 and -6.7% in 2020/21, with severe implications for employment and household welfare. The government response consisting in increased spending (healthcare and food programmes) and salary payments to prevent job losses may have had an important role in improving the macroeconomic outcomes of the pandemic in 2019/20. Nevertheless, much of the aggregate recovery (GDP, employment and welfare) is driven by agriculture as output in most manufacturing, construction and services sectors continue to be affected by productivity shocks and low demand. Therefore, employment and output outside agriculture could still be below the pre-COVID-19 projections even when additional business support measures are included. Without government intervention, the poverty headcount would have increased by about 5% in total population. The government measures are projected to mitigate that effect to a large extent and to allow national poverty levels to reach pre-COVID-19 values in 2020/21 or to even fall below in case of an enhanced business stimulus package from the government. Nevertheless, poor urban households continue to be negatively affected and would require more targeted support.

Suggested Citation

  • Victor Nechifor & Ole Boysen & Emanuele Ferrari & Kidanemariam Hailu & Mohammed Beshir, 2020. "COVID-19: socioeconomic impacts and recovery in Ethiopia," JRC Research Reports JRC122405, Joint Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc122405
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    File URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC122405
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    1. Subramanian, Shankar & Deaton, Angus, 1996. "The Demand for Food and Calories," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(1), pages 133-162, February.
    2. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-766, May.
    3. World Bank, 2016. "Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia," World Bank Publications - Reports 24957, The World Bank Group.
    4. Stefan Dercon & Krishnan Pramila, 1998. "Changes in Poverty in Rural Ethiopia 1989-1995: Measurement, Robustness Tests and Decomposition," Working Papers of Department of Economics, Leuven 501299, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Economics, Leuven.
    5. Mengistu Andualem T. & Woldeyes Firew Bekele & Dessie Ermias & Ayalew Zewdu & Yeshineh Alekaw & Alfredo Mainar Causape & Emanuele Ferrari & Arnaldo Caivano & Javier Castro Malet, 2019. "Ethiopia Social Accounting Matrix 2015/16," JRC Research Reports JRC118413, Joint Research Centre.
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    Cited by:

    1. Roson, Roberto & van der Voorst, Camille, 2021. "The COVID crumbling of tourism in Andalusia: an assessment of economic and environmental consequences," Conference papers 333247, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Roberto Roson & Camille Van der Vorst, 2022. "General Equilibrium Analyses of COVID-19 Impacts and Policies: An Historical Perspective," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: The Economics of COVID-19, volume 127, pages 57-70, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    3. Meltem A. Aran & Nazli Aktakke & Zehra Sena Kibar & Emre Üçkardeşler, 2022. "How to Assess the Child Poverty and Distributional Impact of COVID-19 Using Household Budget Surveys: An Application Using Turkish Data," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(4), pages 1997-2037, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    covid-19; general equilibrium; public spending; poverty analysis; trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • E69 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Other
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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