lynx   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/aoz/wpaper/350.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Global Multidimensional Poverty Prediction using World Development Indicators

Author

Listed:
  • Rodrigo García Arancibia

    (Universidad Nacional del Litoral/CONICET)

  • Ignacio Girela

    (Universidad Nacional de Córdoba/CONICET)

  • Daniela Agostina Gonzalez

    (Universidad Nacional de Córdoba)

Abstract
Effective implementation, monitoring ,and evaluation of targeted poverty reduction programs require accurate measurements of poverty levels and their changes overtime. The Multidimensional Poverty Index(MPI) offers a more comprehensive measure compared to traditional income-based assessments. However, for many countries, MPI data are either unavailable or limited to a few years due to the high cost of conducting relevant surveys. This paper presents alternative methodologies to predict the Global MPI across different countries and time periods using the World Bank’s World Development Indicators as predictor variables. Given that MPI construction involves proportions bounded within the unit interval, we tailor statistical learning methods accordingly. In a high-dimensional context, where the number of predictors exceeds the number of training observations, we evaluate methodologies such as dimension reduction, regularized models, and ensemble learning. We conduct cross-validation experiments to assess model performance, incorporating both measured and non-measured countries in the testing dataset.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigo García Arancibia & Ignacio Girela & Daniela Agostina Gonzalez, 2025. "Global Multidimensional Poverty Prediction using World Development Indicators," Working Papers 350, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    • Handle: RePEc:aoz:wpaper:350
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://rednie.eco.unc.edu.ar/files/DT/350.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sabina Alkire & James E. Foster & Suman Seth & Maria Emma Santos & Jose M. Roche & Paola Ballon, 2015. "Multidimensional Poverty Measurement and Analysis: Chapter 7 - Data and Analysis," OPHI Working Papers 88, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    2. Alkire, Sabina & Foster, James & Seth, Suman & Santos, Maria Emma & Roche, Jose Manuel & Ballon, Paola, 2015. "Multidimensional Poverty Measurement and Analysis," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199689491.
    3. Christoph Lakner & Daniel Gerszon Mahler & Mario Negre & Espen Beer Prydz, 2022. "How much does reducing inequality matter for global poverty?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(3), pages 559-585, September.
    4. Stefanía D’Iorio & Liliana Forzani & Rodrigo García Arancibia & Ignacio Girela, 2024. "Predictive power of composite socioeconomic indices for targeted programs: principal components and partial least squares," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 3497-3534, August.
    5. Alkire, Sabina & Foster, James, 2011. "Counting and multidimensional poverty measurement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7-8), pages 476-487, August.
    6. Sabina Alkire & James E. Foster & Suman Seth & Maria Emma Santos & Jose M. Roche & Paola Ballon, 2015. "Multidimensional Poverty Measurement and Analysis: Chapter 2 - The Framework," OPHI Working Papers 83, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    7. Zhang, Yaojie & Ma, Feng & Wang, Yudong, 2019. "Forecasting crude oil prices with a large set of predictors: Can LASSO select powerful predictors?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 97-117.
    8. Alkire, Sabina & Santos, Maria Emma, 2014. "Measuring Acute Poverty in the Developing World: Robustness and Scope of the Multidimensional Poverty Index," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 251-274.
    9. Tanujit Chakraborty & Ashis Kumar Chakraborty & Munmun Biswas & Sayak Banerjee & Shramana Bhattacharya, 2021. "Unemployment Rate Forecasting: A Hybrid Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(1), pages 183-201, January.
    10. Silvia Ferrari & Francisco Cribari-Neto, 2004. "Beta Regression for Modelling Rates and Proportions," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(7), pages 799-815.
    11. Martin Ravallion, 2013. "How Long Will It Take to Lift One Billion People Out of Poverty?," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 28(2), pages 139-158, August.
    12. Friedman, Jerome H. & Hastie, Trevor & Tibshirani, Rob, 2010. "Regularization Paths for Generalized Linear Models via Coordinate Descent," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 33(i01).
    13. Matthias Schmid & Florian Wickler & Kelly O Maloney & Richard Mitchell & Nora Fenske & Andreas Mayr, 2013. "Boosted Beta Regression," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(4), pages 1-15, April.
    14. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Wolfgang Fengler & Homi Kharas & Karim Bekhtiar & Michael Brottrager & Martin Hofer, 2018. "Will the Sustainable Development Goals be fulfilled? Assessing present and future global poverty," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(1), pages 1-8, December.
    15. Sabina Alkire, James E. Foster, Suman Seth, Maria Emma Santos, Jose M. Roche and Paola Ballon, 2015. "Multidimensional Poverty Measurement and Analysis: Chapter 9 - Distribution and Dynamics," OPHI Working Papers ophiwp090_ch9.pdf, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    16. Sabina Alkire, James E. Foster, Suman Seth, Maria Emma Santos, José M. Roche and Paola Ballon, 2015. "Multidimensional Poverty Measurement and Analysis: Chapter 7 - Data and Analysis," OPHI Working Papers ophiwp088_ch7.pdf, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    17. Balasubramanian, P. & Burchi, F. & Malerba, D., 2023. "Does economic growth reduce multidimensional poverty? Evidence from low- and middle-income countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    18. Hui Zou & Trevor Hastie, 2005. "Addendum: Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(5), pages 768-768, November.
    19. Daniel Gerszon Mahler & R Andrés Castañeda Aguilar & David Newhouse, 2022. "Nowcasting Global Poverty [Why Is Growth in Developing Countries So Hard to Measure?]," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 36(4), pages 835-856.
    20. Sabrina Duarte & Liliana Forzani & Pamela Llop & Rodrigo García Arancibia & Diego Tomassi, 2023. "Socioeconomic Index for Income and Poverty Prediction: A Sufficient Dimension Reduction Approach," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 69(2), pages 318-346, June.
    21. Hui Zou & Trevor Hastie, 2005. "Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(2), pages 301-320, April.
    22. Sabina Alkire & James E. Foster & Suman Seth & Maria Emma Santos & Jose M. Roche & Paola Ballon, 2015. "Multidimensional Poverty Measurement and Analysis: Chapter 9 - Distribution and Dynamics," OPHI Working Papers 90, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    23. Alkire, Sabina & Nogales, Ricardo & Quinn, Natalie Naïri & Suppa, Nicolai, 2023. "On track or not? Projecting the global Multidimensional Poverty Index," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    24. Sabina Alkire, James E. Foster, Suman Seth, Maria Emma Santos, José M. Roche and Paola Ballon, 2015. "Multidimensional Poverty Measurement and Analysis: Chapter 2 - The Framework," OPHI Working Papers ophiwp083_ch2.pdf, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fan Yang & Krishna P. Paudel, 2023. "Nutrition, multidimensional poverty and income: The case of Nepal," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(7), pages 1962-1984, October.
    2. Pinaki Das & Bibek Paria & Shama Firdaush, 2021. "Juxtaposing Consumption Poverty and Multidimensional Poverty: A Study in Indian Context," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 153(2), pages 469-501, January.
    3. Gaurav Datt, 2019. "Multidimensional poverty in the Philippines, 2004–2013: How much do choices for weighting, identification and aggregation matter?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1103-1128, October.
    4. Francisco Azpitarte & Jose Gallegos & Gaston Yalonetzky, 2020. "On the robustness of multidimensional counting poverty orderings," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 18(3), pages 339-364, September.
    5. Paolo Liberati & Giuliano Resce & Francesca Tosi, 2023. "The probability of multidimensional poverty: A new approach and an empirical application to EU‐SILC data," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 69(3), pages 668-700, September.
    6. Deniz Sevinc, 2020. "How Poor is Poor? A novel look at multidimensional poverty in the UK," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 833-859, June.
    7. Burhan Can Karahasan & Fırat Bilgel, 2021. "The Topography and Sources of Multidimensional Poverty in Turkey," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 154(2), pages 413-445, April.
    8. Najam, Zaira, 2020. "The Sensitivity of Poverty Trends to Dimensionality and Distribution Sensitivity in Poverty Measures - District Level Analysis for Pakistan," MPRA Paper 102383, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Jacob Katuva & Rob Hope & Tim Foster & Johanna Koehler & Patrick Thomson, 2020. "Modelling Welfare Transitions to Prioritise Sustainable Development Interventions in Coastal Kenya," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-22, August.
    10. Cecilia Njoroge & Anja Smith & Marisa von Fintel, 2024. "Inequalities in Water Insecurity in Kenya: A Multidimensional Approach," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 175(1), pages 171-193, October.
    11. Chinh Hoang-Duc & Hang Nguyen-Thu & Tuan Nguyen-Anh & Hiep Tran-Duc & Linh Nguyen-Thi-Thuy & Phuong Do-Hoang & Nguyen To-The & Vuong Vu-Tien & Huong Nguyen-Thi-Lan, 2024. "Governmental support and multidimensional poverty alleviation: efficiency assessment in rural areas of Vietnam," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 22(4), pages 999-1038, December.
    12. Khaufelo Raymond Lekobane & Keetie Roelen, 2020. "Leaving No One Behind: Multidimensional Child Poverty in Botswana," Child Indicators Research, Springer;The International Society of Child Indicators (ISCI), vol. 13(6), pages 2003-2030, December.
    13. Kehinde O. Omotoso & Jimi O. Adesina & Taiwo F. Gbadegesin, 2020. "Children on the Edge: Estimating Children’s Vulnerability to Multidimensional Poverty in Post-Apartheid South Africa," Child Indicators Research, Springer;The International Society of Child Indicators (ISCI), vol. 13(4), pages 1155-1174, August.
    14. Shatakshee Dhongde & Robert Haveman, 2022. "Spatial and Temporal Trends in Multidimensional Poverty in the United States over the Last Decade," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 163(1), pages 447-472, August.
    15. Alkire, Sabina & Nogales, Ricardo & Quinn, Natalie Naïri & Suppa, Nicolai, 2023. "On track or not? Projecting the global Multidimensional Poverty Index," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    16. Gallardo, Mauricio, 2022. "Measuring vulnerability to multidimensional poverty with Bayesian network classifiers," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 492-512.
    17. Nick Bailey & Anne-Catherine Guio, 2022. "Adaptive Deprivation Scales in a Multi-National Context: The European Child Deprivation Indicators," Child Indicators Research, Springer;The International Society of Child Indicators (ISCI), vol. 15(6), pages 2335-2362, December.
    18. Rodrigo García Arancibia & Ignacio Girela, 2024. "Graphical Representation of Multidimensional Poverty: Insights for Index Construction and Policy Making," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 172(2), pages 595-634, March.
    19. Suman Seth & Melba Verra Tutor, 2021. "Evaluation of Anti‐Poverty Programs’ Impact on Joint Disadvantages: Insights From the Philippine Experience," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 67(4), pages 977-1004, December.
    20. Alkire, Sabina & Oldiges, Christian & Kanagaratnam, Usha, 2021. "Examining multidimensional poverty reduction in India 2005/6–2015/16: Insights and oversights of the headcount ratio," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    MPI; Beta Regression; Statistical Learning; Data Imputation; Global Poverty Assessment; High-Dimensionality.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aoz:wpaper:350. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Laura Inés D Amato (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/redniar.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.
    Лучший частный хостинг