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Evidence on Goodwin cycles across US golden age and neoliberal era

Author

Listed:
  • Jose Barrales-Ruiz

    (Center of Economics for Sustainable Development (CEDES), Faculty of Economics and Government, Universidad San Sebastian, Chile)

  • Codrina Rada

    (Department of Economics, University of Utah, USA)

  • Rudiger von Arnim

    (Department of Economics, University of Utah, USA)

Abstract
This paper provides a set of baseline empirical results on Goodwin cycles for the US post-war macroeconomy. Our sample consists of Hamilton-filtered series for nonfarm business sector output and labor share as well as the employment rate. Vector autoregressions (VARs) yield strong evidence for the Goodwin mechanism, i.e. profit-led activity and profit-squeeze distribution, in two (output or employment rate cycle vs. labor share cycle) and three (output, employment rate and labor share cycles) dimensions. We focus solely on the cycle rather than underlying trends, discuss how theory and empirical methods relate, and investigate whether and how the Goodwin mechanism has changed over time. To do so, we estimate split samples with standard recursive VARs for the 'golden age' (GA) and 'neoliberal era' (NE), as well as time-varying parameter VARs. Results indicate (i) overall a persistence of the Goodwin mechanism over the entire post-war period; but (ii) generally less pronounced cyclicality during NE than GA, and (iii) a weakening of the profit squeeze vis-`a-vis the employment rate over time as well as, on balance, a weakening of the profit led regime of both activity variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Jose Barrales-Ruiz & Codrina Rada & Rudiger von Arnim, 2024. "Evidence on Goodwin cycles across US golden age and neoliberal era," Working Papers 2410, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:new:wpaper:2410
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    File URL: http://www.economicpolicyresearch.org/econ/2024/NSSR_WP_102024.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    10. Jouchi Nakajima, 2011. "Time-Varying Parameter VAR Model with Stochastic Volatility: An Overview of Methodology and Empirical Applications," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 29, pages 107-142, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Neo-Goodwinian empirics; cyclical growth;

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J50 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - General

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