Josh Umbehr
Josh Umbehr was a Libertarian candidate for Lieutenant Governor of Kansas in the 2014 elections.[1] He shared the ticket with his father and 2014 Libertarian gubernatorial nominee Keen Umbehr in the general election. They faced the Republican ticket of incumbents Sam Brownback and Jeff Colyer and the Democratic ticket of Paul Davis and Jill Docking in the general election.[2] Josh Umbehr lost the general election on November 4, 2014.
Biography
Umbehr is a physician and the owner of Kansas direct care practice Atlas MD. He founded the practice in 2010 after completing his residency.[3]
In 1999, Umbehr began his undergraduate degree at Kansas State University alongside his father. Fifteen years later, the Umbehrs were nominated together by the Kansas Libertarian Party to share the 2014 gubernatorial/lieutenant gubernatorial ticket in the general election.[3]
Elections
2014
Umbehr ran for election as Lieutenant Governor of Kansas. He secured the Libertarian nomination at the state party convention on April 26, 2014, along with running mate and father, Keen Umbehr. The father-and-son ticket faced the Republican ticket of incumbents Sam Brownback and Jeff Colyer and the Democratic ticket of Paul Davis and Jill Docking in the general election. The general election took place on November 4, 2014.
Results
| Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Kansas, 2014 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Republican |  Sam Brownback/Jeff Colyer Incumbent |
49.8% | 433,196 | |
| Democratic | Paul Davis/Jill Docking | 46.1% | 401,100 | |
| Libertarian | Keen Umbehr/Josh Umbehr | 4% | 35,206 | |
| Total Votes | 869,502 | |||
| Election results via Kansas Secretary of State | ||||
Race background
Candidate filing period
On June 2, the filing window for Republican and Democratic candidates pursuing a place on the 2014 Kansas gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial ballot came to a close. One set of Republicans - led by landscape contractor Jennifer Winn - filed to take on the incumbent duo in the August 5 primary election. Meanwhile, Paul Davis, the state House Minority Leader, along with his running mate Jill Docking, were the only Democratic pair to enter the race, earning a free pass to the general election. Also joining the November lineup in advance of the primary election were Libertarian candidates Keen and Josh Umbehr. The father and son ticket knocked out a single set of opponents for their party's nomination at the Kansas Libertarian Party convention, which took place April 26, 2014.[4][5]
Highly competitive race
This contest was considered to be highly competitive, with match-up polls and race ratings dating back to the fall of 2013 underscoring the legitimacy of Davis' threat. One of the first publications to declare Brownback's vulnerability was The Washington Post, which named Kansas as one of its top 15 gubernatorial races of 2014, citing Brownback's approval ratings.[6] Indeed, Brownback's approval ratings had been hovering around 35 percent since January 2012.[7]
Kansas was one of nine gubernatorial seats to be flagged as a toss-up or vulnerable for partisan switch in the 2014 cycle, based on polling data and projections courtesy of The Cook Political Report, FiveThirtyEight, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball and Governing, among others.[8][9][10]
Republican endorsements for Davis
By July 2014, Brownback's campaign lost over 100 influential Republicans endorsements to the Davis campaign. The self-styled "Republicans for Kansas Values," comprised of GOP retirees and current officeholders, explained the unorthodox endorsement of Brownback's Democratic challenger as a response to a $340 million budget shortfall during the 2014 fiscal year.[11][12] Polling in July also indicated that 29 percent of Republicans would vote for Davis, which marked a five-point increase from the previous month. These polls, conducted by Survey USA/KSN News, also showed Brownback losing by an average of seven points. In contrast, YouGov poll in July that showed a 10-point lead for Brownback. Polling experts and representatives of each campaign commented on how divergent polling methodologies can yield seemingly irreconcilable results.[13]
Polls
| Governor of Kansas - All candidates | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Sam Brownback* (R) | Paul Davis (D) | Keen Umbehr(L) | Undecided | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||||||||
| KSN/SurveyUSA October 28, 2014 | 43% | 46% | 5% | 7% | +/-4 | 623 | |||||||||||||
| NBC News/Marist October 24, 2014 | 44% | 45% | 5% | 7% | +/-3.6 | 757 | |||||||||||||
| Rasmussen Reports October 20-21, 2014 | 45% | 52% | 1% | 2% | +/-3 | 960 | |||||||||||||
| Public Policy Polling October 9-12, 2014 | 42% | 42% | 6% | 10% | +/-3 | 1,081 | |||||||||||||
| SurveyUSA/KSN-TV October 2-5, 2014 | 42% | 47% | 4% | 7% | +/-4.3 | 775 | |||||||||||||
| NBC News/Marist Poll October 2014 | 43% | 44% | 4% | 8% | +/-3.9 | 636 | |||||||||||||
| Fort Hays State University September 10-27, 2014 | 36.5% | 38.8% | 8.5% | 16% | +/-3.8 | 952 | |||||||||||||
| Public Policy Polling September 11-14, 2014 | 38% | 42% | 7% | 14% | +/-2.7 | 1,328 | |||||||||||||
| SurveyUSA/KSN-TV September 4-7, 2014 | 40% | 47% | 5% | 7% | +/-4.2 | 555 | |||||||||||||
| Public Policy Polling August 14-17, 2014 | 37% | 39% | 9% | 15% | +/-3.3 | 903 | |||||||||||||
| SurveyUSA/KSN News Poll July 23, 2014 | 40% | 48% | 5% | 7% | +/-2.9 | 1,208 | |||||||||||||
| SurveyUSA/KSN News Poll June 19-23, 2014 | 41% | 47% | 5% | 7% | +/-3.1 | 1,068 | |||||||||||||
| AVERAGES | 40.96% | 44.82% | 5.38% | 8.92% | +/-3.48 | 903.83 | |||||||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. | |||||||||||||||||||
| Governor of Kansas - Major party candidates and undecided | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Sam Brownback * (R) | Paul Davis (D) | Undecided | Margin of error | Sample size | ||||||||||||||
| New York Times/CBS News/YouGov {October 16-23, 2014) | 43% | 40% | 17% | +/-4 | 1,973 | ||||||||||||||
| Gravis Marketing (October 20-21, 2014) | 44% | 49% | 7% | +/-3 | 1,124 | ||||||||||||||
| Monmouth University (October 16-19, 2014) | 45% | 50% | 5% | +/-4.7 | 429 | ||||||||||||||
| Gravis Marketing (September 30-October 1, 2014) | 40% | 48% | 12% | +/-3 | 850 | ||||||||||||||
| New York Times/CBS News/YouGov {September 20-October 1, 2014) | 45% | 42% | 12% | +/-3 | 2,013 | ||||||||||||||
| AVERAGES | 43.4% | 45.8% | 10.6% | +/-3.54 | 1,277.8 | ||||||||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. | |||||||||||||||||||
| Governor of Kansas - Major party candidates, other and undecided | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Sam Brownback* (R) | Paul Davis (D) | Other | Undecided | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||||||||
| Public Policy Polling (Umbehr supporters reallocated September 11-14, 2014 | 39% | 45% | 0% | 15% | +/-2.7 | 1,328 | |||||||||||||
| CBS/NYT/YouGov August 18-September 2, 2014 | 47% | 40% | 2% | 11% | +/-5.0 | 839 | |||||||||||||
| Cole Hargrave Snodgrass (R-Brownback) August 17-30, 2014 | 43% | 42% | 0% | 0% | +/-4.3 | 500 | |||||||||||||
| Rasmussen Reports August 6-7, 2014 | 41% | 51% | 3% | 5% | +/-4.0 | 750 | |||||||||||||
| CBS/NYT/YouGov (With leaners) July 5-24, 2014 | 52% | 40% | 3% | 2% | +/-- | 1,274 | |||||||||||||
| CBS/NYT/YouGov (Without leaners) July 5-24, 2014 | 47% | 37% | 3% | 2% | +/-- | 1,274 | |||||||||||||
| AVERAGES | 44.83% | 42.5% | 1.83% | 5.83% | +/-2.67 | 994.17 | |||||||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. | |||||||||||||||||||
| Governor of Kansas - Major party candidates and "third party" category | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Sam Brownback/Jeff Coyler (R) | Paul Davis/Jill Docking (D) | Third Party | Undecided | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||||||||
| SurveyUSA Poll (October 23-24, 2013) | 39% | 43% | 12% | 6% | +/-4.4 | 511 | |||||||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. | |||||||||||||||||||
Recent news
This section displays the most recent stories in a Google News search for the term "Josh + Umbehr + Kansas + Lieutenant + Governor"
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ The Wichita Eagle, "Physician campaigning as Libertarian dad’s running mate in Kansas governor’s race," May 22, 2014
- ↑ Keen For Kansas, "Home," accessed October 6, 2013
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedltgov14 - ↑ The Wichita Eagle, "Physician campaigning as Libertarian dad’s running mate in Kansas governor’s race," May 22, 2014
- ↑ Keen For Kansas, "Home," accessed October 6, 2013
- ↑ The Washington Post, "The Fix's top 15 gubernatorial races of 2014," November 15, 2013
- ↑ Kansas City Star, "Surveys find a hint of election vulnerability in Gov. Sam Brownback," October 29, 2013
- ↑ University of Virginia Center for Politics, "2014 Governor," accessed July 30, 2014
- ↑ Governing, "2014 Governors Races: A Look at the Too-Close-to-Call Contests," March 6, 2014
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Governors’ Races Are Close, But There’s More Upside For Democrats," July 17, 2014
- ↑ The New York Times, "Kansas Democrats Turn to Data in Governor's Race," July 30, 2014
- ↑ The Washington Post, "More than 100 Republicans endorse Democrat against Kansas Gov. Brownback (R)," July 15, 2014
- ↑ The Wichita Eagle, "Polls on the Kansas governor's race vary widely," July 26, 2014
