Iowa State Senate elections, 2016
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| 2016 Iowa Senate Elections | |
|---|---|
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| Primary | June 7, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
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Republicans won control of the Iowa State Senate, securing a GOP trifecta in the state. Democrats held a three-seat majority in the chamber prior to the election.[1] Republicans picked up six seats, giving them a nine-seat majority.
A total of 25 seats out of the 50 seats in the Iowa State Senate were up for election in 2016. Iowa state senators serve staggered, four-year terms and half of the Senate is up for election every two years.
A Ballotpedia analysis identified the Iowa State Senate as one of 20 battleground chambers in the November 2016 election. These were the chambers where one party might have, realistically, toppled the other party from its position of majority control. This was the case in the Iowa State Senate, where Republicans secured a majority in the chamber.
This election was one of Ballotpedia's top 10 state-level races in 2016.
Click here to read the full list.
Introduction
Elections for the Iowa State Senate were held in 2016. The primary election took place on June 7, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was March 18, 2016.
Incumbents retiring
One incumbent, Dick Dearden (D-16), did not run for re-election in 2016.
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates
Heading into the election, the Democratic Party held the majority in the Iowa State Senate:
| Iowa State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 25 | 20 | |
| Republican Party | 23 | 29 | |
| Independent | 1 | 1 | |
| Vacancy | 1 | 0 | |
| Total | 50 | 50 | |
Overview
Republicans control the governor's office and the state House, placing them within reach of a state government trifecta.
The GOP could not have made gains by picking up open seats in 2016, as it did not field a candidate in the safely Democratic District 16, the lone open seat. No incumbents faced primary competition. Barring any withdrawals or disqualifications, the low number of contested primaries and the total lack of any primary competition set the stage for general election faceoffs in eight of the 11 Democratic districts up for election.
- District 26: Assistant Majority Leader Mary Jo Wilhelm (D) was defeated by farmer Waylon Brown (R) in the most competitive district. In 2012, she won by 126 votes, or 0.4 percent. The district was reported to have near parity in registered party voters, along with over 17,000 unaffiliated voters. In February, Wilhelm was pressured by the conservative group Priorities for Iowa to progress a bill to couple with federal tax law from tax year 2015, saving those who purchase equipment to conduct business about $96 million. In particular, farmers, schoolteachers, and business owners stood to benefit from coupling. Wilhelm had stated that she supported the idea but was concerned about "finding the money [to make up for lost revenue]." Priorities for Iowa criticized Wilhelm and other Democratic leaders for what they called "political gamesmanship."[3] In March, a compromise bill passed the Senate unanimously and was signed into law.[4]
- District 28: Incumbent Michael Breitbach (R) defeated Jan Heikes (D) and Troy Hageman (L) in the general election. Breitbach was elected to the seat in 2012 by a margin of victory of 0.2 percent.
- District 30: Incumbent Jeff Danielson (D) defeated businesswoman Bonnie Sadler (R). Danielson won by one percent in 2012, an improvement over his 2008 result in which he won by a mere 22 votes. The blog Bleeding Heartland notes that "Danielson’s district was the most Republican-leaning Iowa Senate district held by a Democrat [in 2012]," and that he was likely helped by the re-election bid of President Obama.[5]
- District 32: Incumbent Brian Schoenjahn (D) was defeated by Craig Johnson (R). Schoenjahn won with 50.6 percent of the vote in 2012, the lowest amount of his three campaigns. Registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats by over 1,100 in the district.[6]
- District 34: Incumbent Liz Mathis (D) defeated Rene Gadelha (R). Even with a 22-point victory four years ago, state Republican chairman Jeff Kaufmann believed Gadelha was a "dream candidate" to defeat Mathis; Republicans led in registered voters by about 800.[6]
- District 36: Incumbent Steve Sodders (D) was defeated by Jeff Edler (R). While Sodders won by about eight points in 2012, Republicans led in voter registration.[6]
- District 46: Incumbent Chris Brase (D) was defeated by former state representative Mark Lofgren (R), who ran for Congress in 2014 but lost in the primary. Brase was elected in 2012 by a seven-point margin. Again, Republicans led in voter registration.[6]
List of candidates
General election
| 2016 Iowa Senate general election candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Other | ||
| 2 | No candidate | Randy Feenstra (I) |
|
| 4 | Susan Bangert: 11,889 | Dennis Guth: 18,359 (I) |
|
| 6 | No candidate | Mark Segebart: 20,223 (I) |
Nick Serianni: 4,044 (L) |
| 8 | Michael Gronstal: 10,510 (I) | Dan Dawson: 12,379 |
|
| 10 | Matt Paladino: 10,006 | Jake Chapman: 20,053 (I) |
|
| 12 | No candidate | Mark Costello: 20,012 (I) |
Don Brantz: 5,524 (L) |
| 14 | No candidate | Amy Sinclair: 19,482 (I) |
Ruth Smith: 6,755 (Ind.) |
| 16 | Nate Boulton: 14,046 |
Mike Pryor: 8,114 | Christopher Whiteing: 1,254 (L) |
| 18 | Janet Petersen (I) |
No candidate | |
| 20 | Miyoko Hikiji: 15,238 | Brad Zaun: 22,431 (I) |
|
| 22 | Andrew Barnes: 15,343 | Charles Schneider: 19,413 (I) |
|
| 24 | Keith Puntenney: 11,006 | Jerry Behn: 19,435 (I) |
|
| 26 | Mary Jo Wilhelm: 11,557 (I) | Waylon Brown: 19,165 |
|
| 28 | Jan Heikes: 10,823 | Michael Breitbach: 17,501 (I) |
Troy Hageman: 1,648 (L) |
| 30 | Jeff Danielson: 19,568 (I) |
Bonnie Sadler: 13,754 | |
| 32 | Brian Schoenjahn: 12,441 (I) | Craig Johnson: 18,641 |
|
| 34 | Liz Mathis: 20,008 (I) |
Rene Gadelha: 15,673 | |
| 36 | Steven Sodders: 13,111 (I) | Jeff Edler: 14,731 |
|
| 38 | Dennis Mathahs: 10,524 | Tim Kapucian: 18,567 (I) |
John George: 1,810 (L) |
| 40 | No candidate | Ken Rozenboom (I) |
|
| 42 | Rich Taylor: 13,434 (I) |
Danny Graber: 13,266 | |
| 44 | Thomas Courtney: 13,000 (I) | Thomas Greene: 14,410 |
|
| 46 | Chris Brase: 12,615 (I) | Mark Lofgren: 16,576 |
|
| 48 | Scott Peterson: 10,596 | Dan Zumbach: 20,065 (I) |
Brian Cook: 1,232 (L) |
| 50 | Pam Jochum: 18,345 (I) |
John Hulsizer: 10,635 | |
Notes:
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Primary election
Races we watched
Ballotpedia identified six notable Iowa state primary races in 2016, one of which was a state Senate contest.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable Iowa races »
Primary contests
- Two Democrats competed for the open seat left by the Democratic incumbent.
- ☑ Nate Boulton ☐ Pam Conner
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Iowa State Senate in 2016 was lower than the national average. Out of 25 races in the Iowa State Senate in 2016, 22 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 23.8 percent. Across all contested state legislative elections throughout the country in 2016, the average margin of victory was 27.04 percent.
| Republican candidates in the Iowa State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic candidates in 2016. Republicans won 19 races. In the 17 races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 25.9 percent. Democrats won six races in 2016. In the five races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 16.4 percent. |
| More Republican candidates than Democratic candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. Four of the 22 contested races in 2016—18.2 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. One race saw a margin of victory that was 5 percent or less. Republicans won three races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less. |
Iowa State Senate: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 8 R 8.2 percent District 36 R 5.8 percent District 42 D 0.6 percent District 44 R 5.1 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Iowa State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was lower than the national average. 18 incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the 15 winning Iowa State Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 28 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested state legislative elections in 2016 was 30.02 percent. |
| Republican incumbents in the Iowa State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic incumbents. 13 Republican incumbents won re-election. In the 11 races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 33 percent. Five Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the four races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 14.2 percent. |
Iowa State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[7] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[7] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 6 16.4 percent 5 14.2 percent 1 1 16.7 percent Republican 19 25.9 percent 13 33.0 percent 2 2 10.5 percent Total 25 23.8 percent 18 28.0 percent 3 3 12.0 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Iowa State Senate districts in 2016.
| Iowa State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 2 | R | Unopposed |
| District 4 | R | 21.4 percent |
| District 6 | R | 66.7 percent |
| District 8 | R | 8.2 percent |
| District 10 | R | 33.4 percent |
| District 12 | R | 56.7 percent |
| District 14 | R | 48.5 percent |
| District 16 | D | 25.3 percent |
| District 18 | D | Unopposed |
| District 20 | R | 19.1 percent |
| District 22 | R | 11.7 percent |
| District 24 | R | 27.7 percent |
| District 26 | R | 24.8 percent |
| District 28 | R | 22.3 percent |
| District 30 | D | 17.5 percent |
| District 32 | R | 20.0 percent |
| District 34 | D | 12.2 percent |
| District 36 | R | 5.8 percent |
| District 38 | R | 26.0 percent |
| District 40 | R | Unopposed |
| District 42 | D | 0.6 percent |
| District 44 | R | 5.1 percent |
| District 46 | R | 13.6 percent |
| District 48 | R | 29.7 percent |
| District 50 | D | 26.6 percent |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Iowa elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Iowa in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| February 29, 2016 | Ballot access | Primary candidate filing period opens | |
| March 18, 2016 | Ballot access | Primary candidate filing period ends | |
| May 19, 2016 | Campaign finance | Report due covering January 1 through May 14 | |
| June 3, 2016 | Campaign finance | Special supplementary report due for certain contributions | |
| June 7, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| July 19, 2016 | Campaign finance | Report due covering May 15 through July 14 | |
| August 1, 2016 | Ballot access | General election candidate filing period opens | |
| August 19, 2016 | Ballot access | General election candidate filing period ends | |
| October 19, 2016 | Campaign finance | Report due covering July 15 through October 14 | |
| November 4, 2016 | Campaign finance | Special supplementary report due for certain contributions | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| January 19, 2017 | Campaign finance | Report due covering October 15 through December 31 | |
| Sources: Iowa Secretary of State, "Three Year Election Calendar," accessed June 5, 2015 Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board, "Reporting Dates," accessed June 5, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In nine of the 25 districts up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of two Democrats and seven Republicans were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 16 of the 25 districts up for election.
Primary challenges
No incumbents faced primary competition on June 7.
Retired incumbents
One incumbent senator, Dick Dearden (D), did not run for re-election, while 24 (96.0 percent) ran for re-election.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Iowa's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Iowa General Assembly 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 12.0% | 7.3% | 50.4% | 23.2 | 37 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in Iowa in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[8]
| Iowa State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 58 | $5,613,982 |
| 2012 | 69 | $11,000,489 |
| 2010 | 55 | $5,619,166 |
| 2008 | 79 | $6,076,601 |
| 2006 | 75 | $6,782,362 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state senates. The average contributions raised by state senate candidates in 2014 was $148,144. Iowa, at $96,793 per candidate, is ranked 22 of 42 for state senate chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s senate candidates in 2014.[8][9]
Qualifications
The Iowa Constitution states: "Senators shall be chosen for the term of four years, at the same time and place as representatives; they shall be twenty-five years of age, and possess the qualifications of representatives as to residence and citizenship."[10]
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Attributes the one vacancy to the party that previously held the seat.
- ↑ Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory of less than 5 percent are considered highly competitive. Districts that have a margin of victory from 5 to 10 percent are considered mildly competitive.
- ↑ Globe Gazette, "Conservative group targeting Wilhelm, competitive state Senate district," February 29, 2016
- ↑ Office of the Governor, "Gov. Branstad signs House File 2433 into law," March 21, 2016
- ↑ Bleeding Heartland, "Iowa Senate district 30 preview: Jeff Danielson vs. Bonnie Sadler," November 24, 2015
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 Des Moines Register, "Dems, GOP eye flipping seats in Iowa statehouse," March 21, 2016
- ↑ 7.0 7.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 8.0 8.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Iowa," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
- ↑ Iowa Legislature, "Iowa Constitution"
