CNN Democratic debate (October 13, 2015)
This article focuses exclusively on the first Democratic debate hosted by CNN on October 13, 2015. Click here to access Ballotpedia's full 2015-2016 presidential debate coverage. A schedule for Democratic primary debates can be found below.
Ballotpedia's coverage of the first Democratic debate—which took place on October 13, 2015—includes an overview of the event's basic information, a post-debate summary, the results of our Insiders Poll, and post-debate commentary written by guest writers and members of Ballotpedia's senior writing staff.
Basic Information
Date: October 13, 2015
Time: 8:30 pm - 10:00 pm EDT
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
Venue: The Wynn Las Vegas
Sponsors: CNN, Facebook
Moderators: Anderson Cooper, Dana Bash, Juan Carlos Lopez and Don Lemon
Rules for inclusion: CNN announced its rules for participant inclusion in September 2015. Participants were required to meet the following criteria:
- fulfill all constitutional requirements for president;
- file an official statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission by October 14, 2015;
- agree to accept the rules and format of the debate;
- achieve an average of one percent or higher in a combination of three national polls released between August 1, 2015, and October 10, 2015.
Along with its inclusion criteria, CNN also announced what polls it used to determine averages. All polls were to be conducted by a live interviewer and sponsored by one of the following organizations: ABC News, Bloomberg News, CNS News, CNN, FOX News, Gallup, Marist University, McClatchy News Service, Monmouth University, NBC News, The New York Times, Pew Research Center, Quinnipiac University, Time, USA Today, The Wall Street Journal or The Washington Post.[1]
Participants
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![Webb[2]](https://ballotpedia.s3.amazonaws.com/images/thumb/8/8b/Jim_Webb.jpg/403px-Jim_Webb.jpg)
Summary
October 13, 2015
By Charles Aull
Five Democratic candidates for president participated in a debate tonight at the Wynn Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nevada. CNN and Facebook were the hosts. It was the first of six scheduled Democratic primary debates.
CNN's rules for participating in the debate required that each candidate fulfill all constitutional requirements for president, file an official statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) prior to October 14, agree to the debate's code of conduct, and achieve an average of one percent or higher in a combination of three national polls released between August 1 and October 10.
Candidates included Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Martin O'Malley, Jim Webb and Lincoln Chafee.
The moderators were Anderson Cooper, Dana Bash, Juan Carlos Lopez and Don Lemon.
Candidates were allowed two minutes to introduce themselves at the beginning of the debate and 90 seconds for closing remarks. They had one minute to respond to direct questions and 30 seconds for rebuttals.
As with the Republican debates that preceded it, there were significant deviations from the rules and time limits. Cooper, on at least two occasions, reminded candidates of their pledge to adhere to the debate's rules. Candidates also engaged directly with each other. Clinton and Sanders, for example, went back and forth in a segment on capitalism. Sanders also engaged directly with O'Malley on gun control.
Questions came from the moderators and from Facebook users. Topics ranged from gun control, U.S. relations with Russia, Syria, healthcare, college affordability and student debt to regulations on the banking industry, immigration reform, climate change, paid leave and the legalization of recreational marijuana. The moderators also asked questions that were tailored to specific candidates. Chafee, for instance, responded to a question about his political history as a Republican, independent and Democrat. Similarly, Webb fielded a question about his stance on climate change and energy issues.
The order in which candidates stood on stage reflected their rankings in the polls that CNN used to determine participation in the debate. Candidates in the middle ranked the highest. Those on the wings ranked the lowest. The order was Webb, Sanders, Clinton, O'Malley and Chafee.
A full transcript of the debate can be found here.
Statistics
This article analyzes the central themes of the Democratic presidential debate held on October 13, 2015, and how the moderators and candidates engaged with each subject and each other.
Segments
The October Democratic presidential debate featured 24 unique segments, including the introductory and closing statements, and touched on a range of political, domestic and national security issues. These segments were measured by any shift in the discussion prompted by one of the moderators: Dana Bash, Anderson Cooper, Don Lemon and Juan Carlos López.
- Introductions
- Electability
- Gun control
- Russia & Syria
- Military intervention
- 2012 Benghazi terrorist attack
- Military service
- Greatest national security threat
- Clinton's private email server
- Black Lives Matter movement
- Regulation of financial institutions
- Student loan reform and Social Security
- Immigration reform
- Veterans' healthcare
- NSA surveillance
- Edward Snowden
- Contrast with Obama administration
- Clinton as an establishment candidate
- Climate change
- Mandatory paid leave
- Legalization of marijuana
- Bipartisan compromise
- Greatest political enemy
- Closing statements
Overall participation
Participation in a segment was defined by a substantive comment related to the segment's topic. Jokes and attempts to gain permission from a moderator to speak were not considered participatory speech acts. In some instances, candidates who participated in a segment diverted from the prompted topic.
Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vt.) spoke during all but one segment. He was also the only candidate to receive a segment prompt from a moderator that no one else was asked to address. Those two segments covered veterans' healthcare and bipartisan compromise.
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton followed Sanders closely, joining the discussion in 21 segments. Former Gov. Martin O'Malley (Md.) and former Sen. Jim Webb (Va.) participated in 17 segments and 14 segments, respectively. Former Gov. Lincoln Chafee (R.I.) discussed the fewest issues, speaking in only half of the segments.
Candidate participation by behavior
Participation in the debate was also measured by the candidate's behavior during each segment. This study considered whether a candidate was initially prompted to speak during a segment by a moderator or whether he or she independently engaged in the segment by interrupting another candidate or calling on the moderator for permission to speak.
Compared to the Republican presidential debate held on September 16, 2015, the Democratic candidates were far less aggressive in interrupting their fellow candidates or the moderators in an attempt to join a discussion segment for the first time. Only O'Malley and Webb did so, with Webb speaking out without moderator prompting during three different discussion segments.
Candidate participation by speaking time
CNN, Politico and The New York Times all reported on the number of minutes each candidate spoke.[3][4][5] Although the reported totals varied up to two minutes between each organization's measure of candidate speaking times, Clinton definitively spoke the most, followed by Sanders, O'Malley, and Webb. Chafee spoke the least, talking about a third less than Clinton did.
During the debate, Webb protested on five separate occasions that he had far less speaking time than the other candidates. He said he found CNN's debate format "frustrating because unless somebody mentions my name I can't get into the discussion." Webb spoke approximately 15 minutes – half the time Clinton did.[6]
Candidate participation by segment vs. speaking time
The amount of time a candidate spoke did not necessarily align with the number of issues he or she covered during the debate. For example, although Sanders spoke nearly four minutes less than Clinton by CNN's measure, Sanders engaged in a greater number of segment topics than she did.
Candidate participation by speaking order
This study also calculated the number of times a candidate was asked to speak first, second, third, fourth or fifth during each segment topic. This was measured by noting the order in which the moderators prompted each candidate to join a discussion segment with a question or invitation to rebut.
Clinton and Sanders were generally called on first or second to answer questions. Chafee was also frequently called on first. Webb was rarely asked to give his position on a topic before other candidates. Approximately two-thirds of his participation in the debate came speaking last or second-to-last.
Audience engagement
Audience engagement was measured by noting the instances of applause, cheering or laughter in CNN's transcript of the debate. Footage from the debate was consulted where it was ambiguous in the text who the audience was responding to. Multiple expressions of positive audience engagement during one speech act were marked as a single instance of audience engagement. Sanders received the warmest response from the live audience, making 21 points the crowd positively responded to. Clinton followed with 19 instances of positive audience engagement. Outside of their introductory and closing statements, Chafee and Webb barely engaged the crowd.
Candidate speech analysis
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Ballotpedia's Insiders Poll
Hillary Wins Big
October 13, 2015
Hillary Clinton was the big winner of the first Democratic presidential debate—in more ways than one. In a survey of more than 100 Democratic and Republican Party political insiders, an overwhelming 89 percent of Democrats said she was the "biggest winner" of the debate. Her performance was so commanding that some observers felt that the opportunity for Vice President Joe Biden to make a late entry into the Democratic race was slipping away. Said one Democrat, "Joe Biden is probably leaning against now." And a Republican added, "If Biden was watching—and he was—he surely knows there is no room for him on the stage."
Among the 70 Democratic Insiders—party strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists and allied interest groups operatives—who responded to the survey, Clinton was the hottest act on the Vegas strip. "She had the most to lose and in the end showed she had the most to win with this performance," said one Democratic Insider. "She commanded the stage and was confident in her answers," said another. "She showed tonight why she is battle tested and ready to be elected president." Added a third, "She was outstanding: incredible knowledge of the issues, a fighter, willing to engage and stand up for what she believes."
In the view of some Democratic Insiders, Clinton was hardly tested in the debate, reprising a familiar critique of this field of candidates that it lacks contenders of national stature outside of the former secretary of state. "She was poised and Presidential; the only one about whom you can say that," observed one Democratic Insider. "She was the only capable one on the stage," echoed another. A third summed up the debate and Clinton's performance thus: "There was no legitimate outsider in the debate so the consummate insider won. She did all she had to do, but the others made it easy." This survey was conducted anonymously to encourage candor from the Insiders in both parties.
Her command of the issues also won kudos. Clinton was "relaxed, confident and knows the issues by far the best," maintained one Democratic Insider. "She showed depth and knowledge without condescension," added another.
And with an assist from her leading challenger, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who had the most popular line of the night—"the American people are sick and tired hearing about your damn emails"—the controversy that has dogged Clinton’s campaign receded, at least for the moment. "She cleared the email hurdles within the Democratic Party and had a very strong performance," said one influential Democrat. "With Bernie's help [she] left the emails out in the cold night air of Nevada," said another.
And while the 50 Republican Insiders who responded to the survey were not as bullish on Clinton as Democrats were, a 44 percent plurality still acknowledged her as the biggest winner of the debate. "Hillary was in control and in command; forceful, prepared, professional, funny and confident," observed one Republican Insider. "Sanders took the email issue off the table for her." Added another: "Clinton was the only adult and, shockingly, the warmest, most empathetic figure on the stage. Bernie was the most passionate and therefore got the best applause lines, but she did what she had to do."
Predictably, some Republicans grumbled that Clinton's Democratic rivals lacked much of punch. "The other four were wimps who refused to take her on," asserted one GOP Insider. "Does Bernie even want to be president, or is he just happy advocating for progressive issues?" asked an influential Republican. "We had our answer tonight; no fight against Hillary at all."
Sanders was seen as the biggest winner by a handful of Democratic Insiders—nine percent—who felt he gained credibility in the debate that Clinton already possessed. "If Sanders and Clinton were equally well known it might have been a tie, but as the relative unknown, Sanders closed the gap by coming off as equally presidential," said a Democratic Insider. "He had to come across as potentially Presidential," said another. "He clearly did."
Even fewer Democratic Insiders—three percent—felt that former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley won the debate, but those that did believed he too climbed up the credibility ladder. O'Malley "showed he was presidential. Nobody else moved," declared a Democratic Insider.
As for who was the debate's "biggest loser," that unenviable distinction went to former Rhode Island senator and governor, Lincoln Chafee, who only a few years ago switched his party identification to Democratic from Independent. A Democratic Insiders said Chafee gave a "horrible performance that left people wondering why he was on stage." Former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb, who repeatedly complained he was being shortchanged on time, was the runner-up for the loser's award. "Too angry and too much whining," said one Democrat in assessing Webb.
And while some Democratic Insiders said Sanders and O'Malley gained some stature in their first presidential debate, that view was not unanimous. Of Sanders, one Insider asserted he was "not presidential in the slightest." Another echoed, "He didn't pass the credibility test." And a third noted, "At times he looked off beat." O’Malley also took some hits. "Having spent weeks calling for new debates, you'd think he’d have been better prepared to use this one as a breakout moment," jabbed one Democratic influential. "Wasted opportunity for him." Another simply said, "Squandered opportunity."
As the runaway winner of the debate, Democratic Insiders predictably said Clinton was helped by the debate. And as one Democrat asked, "Why on earth didn't HRC want more of these?" At the same time, 54 percent said O'Malley had helped himself with his performance and 46 percent said the same for Sanders. "Martin O'Malley wisely used this opportunity to introduce himself to the national audience," noted one Democratic Insider. "He definitely has more upside and should get a modest boost out of the debate." On Sanders, another Democratic Insiders said, "Bernie was up and down, but showed why liberals love him." But neither one of these two had a standout performance. As one Democratic Insider put it, "Sanders was both good and bad. Clearly had the most passion on the issues but also did not look that presidential. This will be a huge barrier for him to overcome. O'Malley was only OK and needed to be better than that." With Clinton demonstrating that she's on her game in debates, her Democratic rivals cannot afford mixed reviews if they hope to overtake her.
James A. Barnes has conducted surveys of political elites for National Journal magazine, where he founded the Insiders Poll, CNN and YouGov, an online polling firm. He is also the co-author of the forthcoming 2016 Almanac of American Politics. This survey was conducted October 13-14.
Debate Commentary
The columns below were authored by guest columnists and members of Ballotpedia's senior writing staff. The opinions and views belong to the authors.
No Debate Over the Role of Government
October 14, 2015
By Karlyn Bowman
Karlyn Bowman, a widely respected analyst of public opinion, is a senior fellow and research coordinator at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank in Washington, D.C.
A few weeks ago the Gallup organization released the results of a poll on the proper role of government. Fifty-seven percent of Republicans put themselves at points 1 and 2 of the scale question indicating they believed that government should do only the things necessary to provide the most basic government functions. Fifty-seven percent of Democrats put themselves at points 4 and 5 indicating they felt the government should take active steps in every area to try and improve the lives of people.
I thought of those findings during the debate last night when the Democratic candidates embraced a very active role for government in addressing the economy and jobs, inequality, immigration, health care, and race relations, to name only a few of the topics CNN moderators covered. The differences will be central to the contest next November when the eventual Democratic and Republican nominees face one another.
I continue to believe the Democratic nominee will be Hillary Clinton. Nothing in the debate altered her front-runner status. Her nearest competitor Bernie Sanders helped her when he said people were tired of hearing about her damn emails. None of the candidates landed a punch on her. Clinton had clearly prepared for most of the expected questions, and she was not only able to answer, but also turn questions to her advantage as when she brought up Planned Parenthood and abortion, two issues of importance to the Democratic faithful. Sanders had his moments, and Martin O'Malley had a strong close, but they didn't best her performance.
Whether Mrs. Clinton can broaden her appeal remains to be seen. But at least right now, after a solid debate preference, she doesn't appear to have much to worry about among Democrats.
Of Two Take-aways from Last Night’s Debate, One Can Carry Clinton through Election Day
October 14, 2015
By David Kusnet
David Kusnet is a former chief speechwriter for former President Bill Clinton. He is the senior writer and a principal at the Podesta Group, a government relations and public relations firm in Washington, D.C.
Debates are about moments, and the moment that the media, the Twitter-verse and the voters will remember from last night’s Democratic presidential debate was Bernie Sanders turning towards Hillary Clinton and saying: “I think the secretary of state is right, the American people are sick and tired about hearing about your damn emails.”
The soon-to-be-iconic image that followed of Clinton smiling at Sanders and eventually shaking his hand defined a debate in which the structure of the campaign remained unchanged: Clinton (whom I support) in the lead; Sanders running second; and the other contenders left struggling to find some space in the race.
Memorable moments require preparation, and preparation means anticipating scenarios, not memorizing sound bites. While neither Sanders nor Clinton could have foreseen exactly how their exchange about emails would unfold, both arrived at the event with a similar strategy: Engage each other on the issues while remaining personally cordial.
Debate-prep sessions hone such strategies, as well as the sound bites and body language that follow from them. But Clinton’s other enduring achievement – her definition of herself as a progressive pragmatist – flows from her entire public career, reflects a sophisticated familiarity with political history, and will serve her well from the primaries through the general election.
Facing a philosophically driven opponent, the self-described democratic socialist Bernie Sanders, Clinton was called upon to characterize her own views. When CNN moderator Anderson Cooper asked her whether she is “a progressive or a moderate” – a question her husband would have rejected as “a false choice” – Clinton responded that she is “a progressive who likes to get things done.”
At another point in the debate, after Sanders was asked about his socialism, Clinton was asked whether she is a capitalist. Her response, in essence, was that she believes in private enterprise, particularly small businesses, but sometimes “We have to save capitalism from itself.”
Together with her overall approach of embracing economic populist concerns but emphasizing achievable reforms, this answer revealed that she is a careful student of the progressive tradition in American politics.
Confronting critics from his Left during the Great Depression of the 1930s, President Franklin D. Roosevelt respected their grievances but repeatedly explained that his goal was not to transform the economic system but rather to save capitalism from its own failings.
During a very different period – the 1990s – Bill Clinton turned that phrase around, telling associates and occasionally journalists that his goal was to save liberalism from itself by promoting its goals while eliminating its excesses.
By adapting FDR’s phrase last night, Hillary Clinton situated herself in a pragmatic progressive tradition, crafted a self-definition that can carry her from October 2015 through November 2016, and was true to her own personal record and convictions.
Not bad for a night’s work.
What We're Learning from the 2015 Presidential Debates
October 14, 2015
By James A. Barnes
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia. He is the founding editor of the National Journal Political Insiders Poll and is a co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics.
The 2016 pre-primary debates are not just good television; they’re giving us a glimpse of the general election campaign that's still a ways off.
Ratings for the CNN Democratic face-off in Las Vegas this week were another bonanza for cable TV: more than 15 million watched on television and another million were streaming the debate online. That's a 50 percent increase over the viewership of the highest rated Democratic primary debate in 2008. And the two Republican debates have chalked up record audiences of 24 and 23 million.
And the frontrunners in the Democratic and Republican nominating contests have not been shy about engaging their rivals. Often, a frontrunner will try to deflect attacks and all but ignore their opponents. While Hillary Clinton did not quite show the same brio that Donald Trump has in jousting with his fellow Republican White House hopefuls, she didn’t hesitate to throw jabs at Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders on the virtues of capitalism, his college tuition proposal or his less-than-sterling record on gun control. The old rule for frontrunners was "stay above the fray." The new rule may be, "mix it up a little."
As my fellow Ballotpedia debate commentator David Kusnet has observed, women tend to be well prepared when it comes to debates and Clinton, who is well-known for her discipline and work habits, certainly came ready to rumble in Vegas. But perhaps even more important, Kusnet noted how Clinton adroitly positioned herself as a progressive, both a liberal and a pragmatist at heart. That could be persuasive argument in fending off a challenge from Sanders, the self-described democratic socialist who is exciting the passions of a lot of Democrats out on the stump. And it could be an effective way for Clinton to frame her approach to issues in a general election.
And that coming campaign, as Ballotpedia commentator Karlyn Bowman noted, may well revolve around the question about the appropriate role of government. That's an enduring debate in American politics, but in recent presidential contests it has not been front and center. In 2008, in the wake of the financial collapse, that election was largely a referendum on incumbent George W. Bush and his policies, even though he was not on the ballot. Nevertheless, voters were in a mood to punish Republicans. Democrat Barack Obama was campaigning as a post-partisan figure that was going to change the self-dealing ways Washington. He eschewed overt ideological appeals. In 2012, the Obama campaign effectively made the election a referendum on Mitt Romney, whom it portrayed as a vulture capitalist.
No doubt, the outcome in 2016 will be shaped by the perceptions of the character of the Democratic and Republican nominees, whoever they are. Voters always take this measure of White House hopefuls. But maybe the role of government will have a bigger role in the deciding the outcome of 2016 than in recent elections. Amid the personal attacks and bickering in the Republican debates, one thing the GOP candidates seem to agree on is the importance of limiting the size and scope of the federal government.
At a high point for Clinton in the Vegas debate, she sounded a call to arms for Democrats to confront that GOP stance. Defending the legitimacy of government requiring paid family leave and providing health care, Clinton declared, "We can do these things. We should not be paralyzed by the Republicans and their constant refrain, 'big government this, big government that' except for what they want to impose on the American people. We're going to make the wealthy pay for it. That is the way to get it done."
Now that would be a debate worth having in the fall of 2016.
Democratic Debate Schedule
Click the schedule to return back to the top of the page.
See also
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
Footnotes
- ↑ Turner.com, "Candidate Criteria for October 13, 2015 CNN-Facebook Democratic Presidential Primary Debate," accessed September 28, 2015
- ↑ CNN, "CNN releases Democratic debate podium order," October 13, 2015
- ↑ CNN, "The Democratic debate by the numbers," October 14, 2015
- ↑ Politico, "The Democratic presidential debate, by the numbers," October 13, 2015
- ↑ The New York Times, "First Democratic Debate 2015: Highlights and Analysis," October 13, 2015
- ↑ CNN, "CNN Democratic Debate – Full Transcript," accessed October 14, 2015
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