Bellwether
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| Read more about what a Bellwether is and Presidential election accuracy. |
| Voting trends by state |
- See also: Presidential voting trends by state
A bellwether is a leading indicator of a trend or a shift. In politics, it usually refers to a state or county that can be used to predict how other areas will vote. This prediction is based on past voting outcomes, and more wins generally lead to more accurate predictions. For example, Ohio voted for the winning presidential candidate in every presidential election cycle from 1964 to 2020. In fact, from 1900 to 2020, Ohio accurately chose the winning presidential candidate 93 percent of the time. That makes Ohio a bellwether state.
Types of bellwethers
There are several types of bellwethers that are used by political scientists and the news media, these include the "All-Or-Nothing Bellwether," the "Barometric Bellwether," and "Swingometric Bellwether."
All-Or-Nothing
The "All-Or-Nothing" Bellwether refers to states or counties that have chosen a winning presidential candidate every time. The best examples of this type of bellwether were Ohio (93 percent accurate from 1900 to 2012), New Mexico (92 percent accurate from 1912 to 2012), and Missouri (96 percent accurate from 1904 to 2004).[1]
Barometric
The "Barometric Bellwether" is a state or county that best reflects the national vote. Vigo County, Indiana, is the best example of this type of bellwether. Between 1892 and 2004, Vigo County voted for the winning presidential candidate in every election except for 1908 and 1952. From 1960 to 2004, the county was within 3 percent of the "national margins between presidential candidates."[1][2]
Swingometric
The last type of bellwether, the "Swingometric Bellwether," refers to counties that reflect "swings or shifts in the national electorate."[1][3] Sandoval County, New Mexico, is one example. According to NPR, Sandoval County voters are "moderate and their political allegiances are soft," meaning that they may vote for either party. When they do, it tends to reflect a larger shift in voting across the nation, explaining New Mexico's voting accuracy of 92 percent. In 2004, George W. Bush won New Mexico by only 6,000 votes, which was closest margin of any state. Sandoval County had the closest margin of any county in New Mexico in 2004.[1]
Origin of the term "bellwether"
The term bellwether is derived from an ancient shepherding practice. Shepherds attached a bell to the neck of a castrated male sheep, which is also know as a wether. The wether would then lead the flock around, indicating to the shepherd where the flock was located by the sound of his bell.[1]
See also
Footnotes
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