Ballotpedia's Top 15 elections to watch, 2020

	Ballotpedia Analysis: 2020 elections
	Federal elections
	Presidential election • Candidates • Important dates • Campaign finance • Endorsements
	Presidential battlegrounds • U.S. Senate battlegrounds • U.S. House battlegrounds
	Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report, 2020 • Rematches in 2020 general elections • Party committee fundraising, 2019-2020
	State elections
	Trifectas • Vulnerable trifectas
	State executive elections • State legislative elections • State judicial elections
	State legislative battlegrounds • State legislative competitiveness • State executive competitiveness
	Local elections
	Municipal elections • School board elections
	Primaries
	Democratic battlegrounds • Republican battlegrounds • Top-two battlegrounds • Competitiveness

October 23, 2020

We've compiled a list of 15 elections we watched on November 3, 2020, including races for the U.S. Senate, U.S. House, state executive offices, and state courts.

These elections were selected by members of Ballotpedia's editorial department based on past election results, unique election-specific circumstances, and race ratings published by elections forecasters. The final selections were made with the goal of including a mix of federal and state races in mind.

The top 15 elections are grouped by race type and ordered alphabetically. Also included are the three local elections that took place in 2020 which Ballotpedia designated as battlegrounds. Know of an election you think should be included? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org.

See more of our 2020 election analysis by visiting our Election Analysis Hub.

Top 15 elections to watch

U.S. Senate

See also: United States Senate elections, 2020

Georgia (regular): Incumbent David Perdue (R), Jon Ossoff (D), and Shane Hazel (L) ran in the election for one of Georgia's U.S. Senate seats. Perdue was first elected in 2014, when he defeated Michelle Nunn (D) 53% to 45%. Before Perdue's predecessor Saxby Chambliss (R) was first elected in 2002, Democrats had held the seat since the Civil War. A candidate needed to win more than 50% of the vote in order to win the election outright, with a January 5, 2021, runoff being held in the event no candidate reached that threshold.

Georgia (special): Interim Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) faced 20 challengers in a special election for Georgia's other U.S. Senate seat. The seat was left open following Johnny Isakson's (R) retirement in 2019. Georgia law does not provide for primaries in special elections to Congress; instead, all candidates appeared on the general election ballot. Loeffler, Doug Collins (R), Matt Lieberman (D), and Raphael Warnock (D) led in polling and campaign finance. As in the regularly-scheduled election, a runoff would be scheduled for January 5, 2021, in the event no candidate wins a majority of the vote.

Iowa: Incumbent Joni Ernst (R), Theresa Greenfield (D), Rick Stewart (L), and Suzanne Herzog (I) ran for one of Iowa's seats in the U.S. Senate. Ernst was first elected in 2014, becoming the first Republican elected to the seat since 1978. Iowa has 31 Pivot Counties (which voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and Donald Trump (R) in 2016), the most of any state. In the 2018 elections, Democrats won two of Iowa's four U.S. House seats from Republicans, changing the balance of the state's House delegation from a 3-1 Republican majority to a 3-1 Democratic majority.

Kansas: Barbara Bollier (D), Roger Marshall (R), and Jason Buckley (L) ran to succeed Pat Roberts (R) as one of the state's U.S. senators. Bollier, who had, at the time of the election. served in the state legislature since 2010, left the Republican Party in 2018 and joined the Democratic Party. Marshall was first elected to the U.S. House in 2016. No Democrat had won election to the U.S. Senate from Kansas since 1932. However, in 2018, Laura Kelly (D) was elected governor over Kris Kobach (R) 48% to 43%.

Maine: Incumbent Susan Collins (R), Sara Gideon (D), and five other candidates ran for U.S. Senate from Maine. Collins was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 1996 and won re-election by larger margins in each subsequent term, defeating Shenna Bellows (D) 67% to 31% in 2014. Gideon was first elected to the state House of Representatives in 2012 and served as speaker at the time of the 2020 election. Collins was one of two Republican senators running for re-election in 2020 in a state Hillary Clinton (D) won in 2016. This election used ranked-choice voting, a system in which voters rank candidates in order of their preference rather than voting for a single candidate.

North Carolina: Incumbent Thom Tillis (R), Cal Cunningham (D), Kevin E. Hayes (Constitution Party), and Shannon Bray (L) ran for U.S. Senate from North Carolina. Partisan control of this U.S. Senate seat changed both of the previous two times it was up. Kay Hagan (D) defeated incumbent Elizabeth Dole (R) 53% to 44% in 2008 before losing to Tillis 49% to 47% in 2014. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D) 50% to 46% in North Carolina, while Roy Cooper (D) defeated incumbent Pat McCrory 49.0% to 48.8% in the gubernatorial election.

U.S. House

See also: United States House of Representatives elections, 2020

California's 25th Congressional District: Incumbent Mike Garcia (R) and Christy Smith (D) ran for this U.S. House seat, which was, at the time of the election, located in Los Angeles and Ventura counties. In 2018, this was one of seven U.S. House districts in California that flipped from Republicans to Democrats. The winner of the 2018 election, Katie Hill (D), resigned in 2019 amid allegations of an extramarital relationship. Garcia defeated Smith in the May 2020 special election for the seat, becoming the first Republican to flip a U.S. House seat in California since 1998.

Georgia's 7th Congressional District: Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) and Rich McCormick (R) ran for this U.S. House seat, which was, at the time of the election, located north of Atlanta. Incumbent Rob Woodall (R) , who was first elected in 2010, did not run for re-election in 2020. Bourdeaux was the Democratic nominee in 2018, losing to Woodall 50.1% to 49.9%. Woodall's 433-vote margin of victory was the narrowest in any U.S. House election that year.

Minnesota's 7th Congressional District: Incumbent Collin Peterson (D), Michelle Fischbach (R), and Slater Johnson (Legal Marijuana Now Party) ran for this U.S. House seat, which was, at the time of the election, located in western Minnesota. Peterson, who was first elected in 1990, was one of two Democrats in the U.S. House to vote against both articles of impeachment targeting President Trump (R). The other, Jeff Van Drew, later joined the Republican Party. Fischbach, a former state senator, served as lieutenant governor following Tina Smith's (D) appointment to the U.S. Senate in 2018. Peterson was, at the time of the election, one of 30 Democrats in the U.S. House representing a district that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. That year, Trump defeated Hillary Clinton (D) 62% to 31% in the 7th District, his widest margin in any Democratic-held U.S. House district.

New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District: Incumbent Xochitl Torres Small (D), Yvette Herrell (R), and Steve Jones (I) ran for this U.S. House seat, which was, at the time of the election, located in southern New Mexico. This race was one of 56 U.S. House rematches that took place in 2020. In 2018, Torres Small defeated Herrell 51% to 49%. This is also one of 31 U.S. House districts that Donald Trump (R) won in 2016 and a Democrat won in 2018. In 2016, Trump defeated Hillary Clinton (D) 50% to 40% in the district.

South Carolina's 1st Congressional District: Incumbent Joe Cunningham (D) and Nancy Mace (R) ran for this U.S. House seat, which was, at the time of the election, located in southeastern South Carolina. Cunningham was first elected in 2018 by a 51% to 49% margin, becoming the first Democrat to win election in the district since 1978. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D) 54% to 40% in the district.

Utah's 4th Congressional District: Incumbent Ben McAdams (D), Burgess Owens (R), and John Molnar (L) ran for this U.S. House seat, which was, at the time of the election, located in suburban Salt Lake City. McAdams was first elected in 2018, defeating incumbent Mia Love (R) 50.1% to 49.9%. His 694-vote margin of victory was the narrowest in any U.S. House race where partisan control of a seat changed that year. This seat was among the 30 Democrats were defending in 2020 that Donald Trump (R) won in 2016. That year, he received 39% of the vote in the 4th District to Hillary Clinton's (D) 32% and Evan McMullin's (I) 22%.

State executives

See also: State executive official elections, 2020

Governor of North Carolina: Incumbent Roy Cooper (D), Dan Forest (R), Al Pisano (Constitution Party), and Steven DiFiore II (L) ran for a four-year term as governor of North Carolina. Cooper was first elected in 2016, defeating incumbent Pat McCrory (R) 49.0% to 48.8% as Donald Trump (R) won the state 50% to 46% over Hillary Clinton (D). Forest, who served as lieutenant governor at the time of the election, was first elected in 2012 and won re-election in 2016 52% to 45%. North Carolina was, at the time of the election, one of 14 states with divided government, meaning neither party had a trifecta. In addition to the governorship, all 170 seats in the state legislature were up, meaning both parties had a chance to gain a trifecta.

Washington Secretary of State: Incumbent Kim Wyman (R) and Gael Tarleton (D) ran for a four-year term as Washington Secretary of State. Wyman was first elected in 2012 and won re-election over Tina Podlodowski (D) 55% to 45% in 2016. Tarleton had served in the state House since 2013. Washington was, at the time of the election, one of 14 states where neither party had a triplex. All three triplex offices were on the ballot in 2020, giving both parties a chance to win a triplex. Wyman and state Treasurer Duane Davidson (R) were, at the time of the election, the only Republicans among Washington's 14 state executive officeholders. At the time of the election, Democrats had not won a Washington secretary of state election since 1960.

State judiciary

See also: State judicial elections, 2020

Michigan Supreme Court: Seven candidates ran for two seats on the Michigan Supreme Court. Although the general election was nonpartisan, political parties were permitted to nominate candidates for the office. The Democratic Party nominated incumbent Bridget Mary McCormack and Elizabeth Welch, the Republican Party nominated Brock Swartzle and Mary Kelly, and the Libertarian Party nominated Kerry Lee Morgan and Katie Nepton. A seventh candidate, Susan L. Hubbard, was not nominated by a political party. The winners succeeded McCormack and Stephen Markman, a Republican-appointed justice who had reached his mandatory retirement age. At the time of the election, four members of the seven-member court were appointed by Republican governors and the other three were elected after being nominated by the state Democratic Party.

Local battlegrounds

Ballotpedia identified the following three 2020 local elections as battleground races.

Mayoral election in Miami-Dade County, Florida

See also: Mayoral election in Miami-Dade County, Florida (2020)

Daniella Levine Cava defeated Esteban Bovo Jr. in the nonpartisan general election for Mayor of Miami-Dade County on November 3, 2020. Incumbent Mayor Carlos Gimenez reached his consecutive term limit and could not run for re-election. Though the race was nonpartisan, the candidates received partisan support. Four local Republican organizations endorsed Bovo, who held office in the Florida House of Representatives as a Republican from 2008 to 2012.^[1] Seven local and state Democratic organizations, including the Florida Democratic Party, endorsed Levine Cava.^[2] The office was last held by a Democratic-aligned candidate in 2004, which was also the last time a Democratic-aligned candidate and a Republican-aligned candidate faced off in a general election.

Mayoral election in Portland, Oregon

See also: Mayoral election in Portland, Oregon (2020)

Incumbent Ted Wheeler defeated Sarah Iannarone and Teressa Raiford (write-in) in the general election for mayor of Portland, Oregon on November 3, 2020. Wheeler said he led on police reform and the city's COVID-19 response. His campaign website said, "We are in the midst of a pandemic, the ensuing economic crisis, racial justice reckoning, and facing the constantly growing effects of climate change. We have an incredible amount of work ahead, and need continued leadership now more than ever."^[3] Iannarone's campaign website said, "The current Mayor’s record is full of broken promises on solutions for houselessness and inequality. He’s shown no leadership on civil unrest or public safety. ... I’m offering a progressive alternative."^[4]

Mayoral election in Stockton, California

See also: Mayoral election in Stockton, California (2020)

Kevin Lincoln defeated incumbent Michael Tubbs in the general election for mayor of Stockton, California, on November 3, 2020. Tubbs conceded the race on November 17.^[5] The general election was held after no candidate received a majority of the vote in the March 3 primary.^[6] Mayoral elections in Stockton are nonpartisan, meaning that candidates’ party affiliations do not appear on the ballot. However, Lincoln was a member of the Republican Party at the time of the election and Tubbs was a member of the Democratic Party.^[7] Tubbs' campaign website said he was "running to continue revitalizing our neighborhoods, attract more good paying jobs, increase safety through community policing, and bring innovation into our civic life and local economy."^[8] According to the Los Angeles Times, Tubbs was "the city’s first Black mayor and a favorite in progressive circles for championing ideas such as universal basic income."^[9] Lincoln's campaign website included proposals for a homeless policy initiative, public safety policy initiative, and civic engagement plan.^[10] Lincoln received support from local police and firefighters unions.^[9]^[11] His professional experience included serving in the Marines, working in private security, and pastoring a church.^[7]

Mayoral election in El Paso, Texas

See also: Mayoral election in El Paso, Texas (2020)

Oscar Leeser defeated incumbent Donald "Dee" Margo in the runoff election for mayor of El Paso, Texas, on December 12, 2020. Leeser received 79.5% of the vote to Margo's 20.5%. The runoff election was held after no candidate received a majority of the vote in the November 3 general election. Mayoral elections in El Paso are nonpartisan, meaning that candidates’ party affiliations do not appear on the ballot. However, media outlets identified Leeser as a member of the Democratic Party, and Margo previously served as a Republican in the Texas House of Representatives.^[12]^[13] Leeser served as mayor of El Paso from 2013 to 2017. He did not seek re-election in 2017, and Margo won a runoff election for the office. According to The Texas Tribune, the 2020 runoff election was "dominated by Margo’s management of the [COVID-19] crisis."^[14] According to the Tribune, "Margo ran on his experience guiding the city through three major crises — not just the pandemic, but also the 2019 massacre at a Walmart and the Central American migrant influx prior to that," while Leeser "pitched himself as a better crisis manager who would do more to bring the city together to get the virus under control."^[15]^[14]

District Attorney election in Los Angeles County, California

See also: District Attorney election in Los Angeles County, California (2020)

George Gascón defeated incumbent Jackie Lacey in the nonpartisan election for Los Angeles County District Attorney on November 3, 2020. Lacey was first elected in 2012.^[16] Gascón was first elected as San Francisco district attorney in 2011.^[17] In 2015, he ran unopposed.^[18] This race drew media attention following events and activity in response to law enforcement's use of force and the death of George Floyd.