United States House of Representatives election in Montana, 2018

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2020
2017
Montana's At-Large Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 12, 2018
Primary: June 5, 2018
General: November 6, 2018

Pre-election incumbent:
Greg Gianforte (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Montana
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Lean Republican
Inside Elections: Likely Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Montana's At-Large Congressional District
U.S. SenateAt-large
Montana elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

Incumbent Rep. Greg Gianforte (R-Mont.) defeated former state Rep. Kathleen Williams (D) and attorney Elinor Swanson (L) in the general election for Montana's At-Large Congressional District on November 6, 2018.

All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. The Democratic Party gained a net total of 40 seats, winning control of the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the U.S. House in the 116th Congress. Heading into the election, the Republican Party was in the majority holding 235 seats to Democrats' 193 seats, with seven vacant seats. Democrats needed to win 23 GOP-held seats in 2018 to win control of the House. From 1918 to 2016, the president’s party lost an average of 29 seats in midterm elections.

Gianforte was first elected in a 2017 special election to fill the seat left vacant by Ryan Zinke (R). He won by a margin of 6 points. Although Montana's At-Large District seat had been held by a Republican continuously from 1997, that race garnered significant national attention and fundraising, including more than $7 million in satellite spending.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee again identified this district as a target in 2018.[3]

Montana has a single at-large congressional district, which makes up the entire state.

Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.


Candidates and election results

See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Montana At-large District

Incumbent Greg Gianforte defeated Kathleen Williams and Elinor Swanson in the general election for U.S. House Montana At-large District on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Greg Gianforte
Greg Gianforte (R)
 
50.9
 
256,661
Image of Kathleen Williams
Kathleen Williams (D) Candidate Connection
 
46.2
 
233,284
Image of Elinor Swanson
Elinor Swanson (L)
 
2.9
 
14,476

Total votes: 504,421
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Montana At-large District

The following candidates ran in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Montana At-large District on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Kathleen Williams
Kathleen Williams Candidate Connection
 
33.5
 
37,513
Image of John Heenan
John Heenan
 
31.7
 
35,480
Grant Kier
 
24.2
 
27,025
Image of Lynda Moss
Lynda Moss
 
5.1
 
5,667
John Meyer Candidate Connection
 
3.3
 
3,740
Image of Jared Pettinato
Jared Pettinato
 
2.2
 
2,472

Total votes: 111,897
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Montana At-large District

Incumbent Greg Gianforte advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Montana At-large District on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Greg Gianforte
Greg Gianforte
 
100.0
 
136,372

Total votes: 136,372
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Candidate profiles

See also: Editorial approach to writing about key campaign messages


Kathleen Williams, former state legislator
KathleenWilliams.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Democratic

Incumbent: No

Political office: Montana House of Representatives (2011-2017)

Biography: Williams graduated with a B.S. in resource economics from U.C. Berkeley and an M.S. in recreation resources from Colorado State University. She served as the associate director of the Western Landowners Alliance and as a facilitation and water planning contractor on several projects in the state. She was first elected to the Montana House of Representatives in 2010.[4]

Key messages
  • Williams pointed to acting as a caregiver to her mother after her diagnosis with Alzheimer's and her husband's death in 2016 as part of her motivation to run for Congress and make healthcare accessible.[4][5][6]
  • Williams said she wanted to address dysfunction in Washington, D.C., starting with backing another Democrat over House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) for House leadership.[7]




Greg Gianforte, U.S. representative
Greg Gianforte square.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Republican

Incumbent: Yes

Political office: U.S. House, Montana's At-Large Congressional District (assumed office: 2017)

Biography: Gianforte received his B.S. and M.S. from Stevens Institute of Technology. He founded RightNow Technologies in Bozeman, Montana, growing it to become the town’s largest commercial employer in 2018. He was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in a special election in 2017.[8][9]

Key messages
  • Gianforte highlighted his business experience founding five companies and creating the Better Montana Jobs project to promote economic growth in the state.[8]
  • Gianforte emphasized his commitment to "Montana values."[10] He characterized Williams as being too liberal to properly represent Montanans on immigration policy and national security.[11]




Elinor Swanson, attorney
Elinor Swanson.png

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Libertarian

Incumbent: No

Political office: None

Biography: Swanson graduated from Pomona College and Lewis & Clark Law School. She worked as a legal extern before becoming a medical malpractice and personal injury attorney.[12][13]

Key messages
  • Swanson called herself the "only alternative" to typical politics. She said in an interview, "Either you have two candidates who will not uphold the Constitution, or you have a candidate like me, that is actually committed to upholding individual liberties and the Constitution."[14]
  • Swanson identified addressing the federal deficit as her main focus. She also said she supported a non-interventionist foreign policy and fewer regulations on business.[14]



Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Montana's At-large Congressional District election, 2018
Poll Poll sponsor Democratic Party Williams Republican Party GianforteUndecided/OtherMargin of errorSample size
University of Montana Big Sky Poll
October 10-18, 2018
N/A 46%45%9%+/-4.3607
Montana State University Billings
October 8-13, 2018
N/A 41%44%16%+/-4.5471
Gravis Marketing
June 11-13, 2018
N/A 49%43%8%+/-4.5469
AVERAGES 45.33% 44% 11% +/-4.43 515.67
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.


Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Greg Gianforte Republican Party $9,831,182 $9,800,102 $31,080 As of December 31, 2018
Kathleen Williams Democratic Party $4,160,972 $4,124,015 $36,957 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Satellite spending

Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[15][16][17]

This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: Montana's At-large Congressional District election, 2018
Race trackerRace ratings
October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political ReportLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+11, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 11 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Montana's at-large district the 127th-most Republican district nationally.[18]

FiveThirtyEight's elasticity score for states and congressional districts measures "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." Heading into the election, this district's elasticity score was 1.06. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moves toward a party, the district is expected to move 1.06 points toward that party.[19]

Noteworthy endorsements

See also: Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering endorsements

This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please click here.


Campaign advertisements

This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.

Democratic Party Kathleen Williams

Support

"Love" - Williams campaign ad, released August 22, 2018
"Fresh Start" - Williams campaign ad, released July 18, 2018
"Paul" - Williams campaign ad, released May 14, 2018
"Not Doing It" - Williams campaign ad, released May 2, 2018

Oppose

Gianforte opposition ad, released August 10, 2018

Republican Party Greg Gianforte

Support

"Stand" - Gianforte campaign ad, released October 4, 2018
"Seniors" - Gianforte campaign ad, released September 18, 2018

Oppose

"Who We Are" - Williams campaign ad, released October 18, 2018
"Threaten" - Williams opposition ad, released August 30, 2018

Campaign themes

These were the policy positions listed on the top candidates' websites in September 2018.

Democratic Party Kathleen Williams

AFFORDABLE, QUALITY HEALTHCARE FOR EVERYONE

Healthcare is personal for Kathleen. When she was eleven years old, her mother Marie started to lose her memory. When Marie got lost driving, Kathleen rode her bike out to find her and help her get home. Marie was diagnosed with early onset Alzheimer’s. Kathleen and her father were her caregivers for the next seven years.

Kathleen personally knows what a healthcare crisis can do to a family. Fixing our broken healthcare system is her top priority.

The ACA individual market is absolutely broken. Montanans are paying tens of thousands of dollars in premiums and deductibles before they even receive any service. That’s bankruptcy potential for Montana families.

Kathleen is the only candidate for Congress with a detailed, achievable plan to immediately reduce costs for Montanans. Her plan will stabilize the individual market and move to truly universal coverage. She will fight for the following:

  • Reinstating payments to insurers and individuals to keep the cost of individual plans down.
  • Making CHIP and the federal rural health center fund a permanent part of our healthcare system, not political footballs that get renewed every two or six years.
  • Lifting the restriction that prevents Medicare from bargaining for drug prices, allowing it to lower consumer costs through price negotiations, like Medicaid and the VA can do today.
  • Allowing people 55 and older to buy into Medicare, setting the stage to transform our healthcare system in a cost-effective, achievable way.
  • Devoting federal resources to combating the methamphetamine and opioid crisis.
  • Protecting Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security. Those are non-negotiable.

In the Montana Legislature Kathleen had success on difficult healthcare issues. She crafted a law requiring insurers to make life-saving cancer treatment affordable. It took four years, it was tough, but it saved lives. That’s toughness and experience that money can’t buy. Only Kathleen can bring that record to Congress and fix our broken healthcare system.

A FAIR TAX CODE

Kathleen understands that tax policy must be progressive and address the increasing income disparity in Montana and across the country. In the Montana Legislature, Kathleen served as Vice Chair of the House Taxation Committee. She was one of the first legislators to discuss income inequality and its implications for the state tax code. She laid the groundwork for the state Earned Income Tax Credit, which provides supplemental income for 80,000 low-income Montana families.

Federal tax policy is moving in the wrong direction, starting with the disastrous tax bill Representative Greg Gianforte championed. The process was completely broken: no public hearings, handwritten amendments, and representatives voting without having read the bill. The outcomes are even worse. Gianforte and his allies ballooned the federal deficit by over $1.8 trillion to pay for a tax cut for corporate shareholders and wealthy special interests, and provided little benefit to everyday Montanans.

In Congress, Kathleen will:

  • Limit the damage of the tax bill. Greg Gianforte’s first piece of legislation was a bill stipulating that Congress should not get paid unless it passes a balanced budget. A few months later, he voted to increase the debt by over $1.8 trillion. Now, as he once again calls for a balanced budget, he turns to earned benefits like Medicare and Social Security to try to find savings. Kathleen will never vote to cut Medicare, Medicaid, or Social Security, ever.
  • Fix and simplify the tax bill by restoring progressive taxes to the federal code and fixing mistakes resulting from hasty passage of the bill. Many experts say our tax code is on track to become a system where anyone can avoid paying any taxes if their CPA were sufficiently familiar with all the loopholes. That’s not fair and certainly not progress.
  • Ensure the federal tax policy process acknowledges increasing income disparity and works to fix it, not exacerbate it.

REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS

Kathleen believes both access to affordable contraception and proper education on its use should be protected and expanded. Schools should teach scientifically based sex education. She believes we must further support women and families by supporting affordable daycare, healthcare, and programs to reduce poverty and domestic violence.

Kathleen proudly supports a woman’s right to choose. She opposes the ridiculous war on Planned Parenthood. Early in Kathleen’s career Planned Parenthood was her primary health provider. In Congress, she will fight any bill that tries to restrict access to a woman’s constitutional right to abortion or make the process burdensome.

Kathleen’s stances on this issue are rooted in fundamental truths that should be bipartisan. First, the best way to prevent unplanned pregnancy is through science-based education, family planning, and access to birth control. Second, this fight is not solely about reproductive rights, but about the position of women in society and their ability to make their own decisions.

EQUAL PAY FOR EQUAL WORK

Kathleen supports equal pay for equal work. In Montana, a woman makes 73 cents on the dollar for the same work as a man, the fourth worst ratio in the nation. This problem is particularly acute in farming, fishing, and forestry -- industries that are crucial to the economic fabric of Montana and ones that are close to Kathleen’s heart as a sportswoman and conservationist.

The foundation for federally mandated equal pay exists, but it must be improved upon. While the Equal Pay Act of 1963 lays out the principle that people must be paid the same amount for the same work, federal courts have interpreted “equal work” so narrowly that an equal pay case can only be won if a man and woman have almost the exact same job. This is a situation where Congress must step in and modify the statute to clarify and make the requirements workable.

Equal pay challenges will not be successful as long as women fear retaliation for coming forward. Congress should protect women who demand equal pay from retribution by their employers.

Ultimately, equal pay is both a basic fairness issue and a family issue. Single mothers and women who are the primary earners in a household suffer most when they are treated unfairly, especially in part-time or minimum wage jobs. Kathleen strongly supports a living wage which will lift up hard working women and ensure that they can provide for their families.

Kathleen will fervently fight for these issues because she has experienced the injustice of inequality that women face.

PROTECTING MONTANA’S NATURAL HERITAGE

Kathleen has loved the outdoors since she was a small child. It’s her sanctuary, where she gets her renewal. Throughout her 35-year career in outdoor recreation and natural resources, Kathleen has brokered win-win solutions to thorny issues across a variety of landscapes, stakeholder interests, and issues. During her legislative service, she stood up to nefarious proposals that would have weakened our environmental protections and transferred public lands.

As a former employee of public land agencies, she knows how they work and can operate in a creative, bipartisan way to protection their ability to achieve their missions.

Specific proposals include:

  • Support Senator Tester’s Forest Jobs and Recreation Act, the Blackfoot-Clearwater Stewardship Act, the East Rosebud Wild & Scenic designation, and the Yellowstone Gateway Protection Act.
  • Oppose unaffordable entrance fees at our national parks, so that our outdoor legacy remains accessible to all of us and our children.
  • Oppose Senator Daines’ and Rep. Gianforte’s bills to release Wilderness Study Areas by legislative fiat, rather than through public processes like forest plan revisions.

Kathleen is the only candidate with extensive policy experience in public lands and natural resources. She was a strong conservation voice on the House Natural Resources Committee and the Montana Environmental Quality Council. She vice-chaired the Water Policy Interim Committee. She also served for years on the Board of the Greater Gallatin Watershed Council and DEQ’s Water Pollution Control Advisory Council.

She will hit the ground running in DC to reinstate and protect crucial environmental protections that have been rolled back or threatened by this Administration.

ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE

Montana’s new reality is hotter, drier, longer summers, earlier runoff, and more intense wildfire seasons. We are also experiencing aggravated forest health issues and longer and more intense fire seasons. Last year’s historic wildfires burned nearly 1,000,000 acres in Montana, cost the state $53.7 million in direct expenditures and $300 million total. Two firefighters lost their lives.

As an expert in water planning and policy, Kathleen has seen the effects of climate change first hand and has worked to address them. She has spent much of her career brokering win-win-win solutions for senior water right holders, irrigators, and Montana’s rivers.

In Congress, Kathleen will:

  • Work with groups like the bipartisan Climate Solutions Caucus to agree on common-sense measures that cut greenhouse gas emissions and bolster economic growth.
  • Work with the agricultural community on innovative soil carbon storage to mitigate the risks of climate change.
  • Ensure disaster relief programs work to build resiliency, rather than just rebuild infrastructure that isn't suited to a changing climate.
  • Push to rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement, and support the “we’re still in” movement by cities and states to continue commitments to address and reverse climate change.
  • Consider a carbon tax or fee system that internalizes the environmental costs of fossil fuels.

Kathleen worked to advance alternative energy legislation and projects in the state Legislature. She is personally committed to moving away from fossil fuels, having installed solar panels on her home. She drives a plug-in hybrid.

These personal choices matter, but national action is still needed. In Congress, Kathleen will consider any reasonable proposal that reduces our greenhouse gas emissions in an efficient, cost-effective way.

CREATING HIGH-PAYING JOBS

Kathleen was first elected to the Legislature during the Great Recession. She quickly built a reputation for defending Montana’s small businesses and creating jobs. Kathleen was honored by the Montana Chamber of Commerce for advancing creative business ideas that diversified Montana’s economy.

She strongly values supporting farmers and ranchers who choose to stay on their land, and keeping their land productive. One of her biggest successes was passing Montana’s cottage food bill, which allowed the production and sale of certain products made in a home kitchen. This bill created hundreds of new businesses and thousands of new Montana products in just two years.

To create and retain jobs, Kathleen will:

  • Protect the National Labor Relations Act and fight pernicious (and mischaracterized) “right to work” legislation that would undermine wages and benefits for so many Montanans.
  • Maintain economic development funds, including the Rural Development program in the Farm Bill, that support our economic strategists and momentum across the state, whether at the tribal, federal, state, or local levels.
  • Correct the recent tax bill and ensure the tax code benefits middle class and working Americans, who spend their money locally, trickling up to make the economy stronger.
  • Support public education at every turn, and work on innovative education models such as high school technical training and two-year college programs, as well as union and other apprenticeships that give Montanans cost-effective training for the jobs of the future.

Advance renewable energy. The industry fosters many small businesses, well-paying jobs, and helps us advance the ability to combat climate change.

  • Repair healthcare. The healthcare sector will continue to grow in Montana; we need to ensure an adequate workforce that allows us all to receive care in our own communities. Healthcare costs can be crushing for business, and many who would start a business are hesitant to leave their current jobs if those jobs provide health care coverage for their families.

OPPORTUNITY THROUGH PUBLIC EDUCATION

Kathleen is the proud product of public schools: K-12 and degrees from two land grant universities. When it comes to education, it’s simple: Kathleen will make sure that needed federal funds go to public schools. Public schools are the great equalizer in America; their resources should not be siphoned off to pay for private education.

Public education in Montana and across America is also threatened by Betsy DeVos and her efforts to privatize education and remove student protections. In Congress, Kathleen will exercise her oversight authorities to fight for the following:

  • Federal programs that identify and address discrimination and segregation in public education.
  • Transparent, fair, and affordable federal student grants and loans.
  • Fulfilling federal special education funding commitments to state and local governments. These funds are critical for special education and allow school districts to spend their limited resources elsewhere.
  • Year after year in the Montana Legislature, Kathleen stood proudly on the side of public education. The MEA-MFT awarded her a perfect legislative rating for her advocacy for students and teachers.

AGRICULTURE AND RURAL JOBS

Montana deserves a member of Congress who will deal comprehensively with issues facing rural Montana. We need to support our farmers, ranchers, and our rural communities.

Kathleen will oppose reckless trade wars that harm Montana’s agricultural economy. She will support free, fair, and consistent trade policies that open the world to Montana’s best-in-class products, and programs that advance value-added products and income diversification.

In Congress, Kathleen will represent all of Montana. She will:

  • Fight for a Farm Bill that works for Montana, one that protects key safety nets, and conservation and rural development programs.
  • Ensure Congress is committed to building rural broadband and fueling economic diversity across Montana.
  • Fight for consistent federal funding for health care services and facilities that make sense in rural Montana, which create jobs and keep Montanans healthy.
  • Make sure we can retire with dignity, by protecting Medicare and Social Security no matter what.

Kathleen has traveled from Superior to Ekalaka, listening to the hopes, struggles, and dreams of Montanans on their farms, on their ranches, and in their towns. In April, Kathleen launched her Montana Opportunity Tour, a 1,044-mile tour of Montana in her truck camper, where she spoke about fostering opportunity with Montanans in Anaconda, Choteau, Browning, Cut Bank, Havre, Rocky Boy, Malta, Glasgow, Wolf Point, Scobey, Plentywood, Sidney, Glendive, Miles City, and in communities and homes in between. She will continue continue to seek out and listen to Montanans across the state, during the campaign and in Congress.

WORKING WITH, AND FOR, MONTANA'S TRIBES

First and foremost, we must respect tribal sovereignty and ensure federal policy incorporates tribal interests. Too often, our government makes misguided policy on behalf of our Native communities without including them in the process.

Montana’s reservations far too often lack opportunities available in other parts of the state. Kathleen will work with tribal representatives to address the intertwined issues of poverty, jobs, wages, and education on our reservations. She also understands that we must confront addiction, suicide, and domestic violence head on. While economic opportunity must be the starting point, these issues demand their own solutions.

Kathleen has a detailed plan for Indian Country, developed alongside leaders on Montana's reservations and in our urban Indian communities.

FIGHTING FOR LGBTQIA+ RIGHTS AND NON-DISCRIMINATION

Government should never sanction discrimination. In Congress, Kathleen will stand with the LGBTQIA+ community in Montana and tirelessly fight discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation.

Kathleen has a record of winning these fights. The day before Indiana adopted their "religious freedom" bill, an even worse version came up for a floor vote in the Montana House. The bill would have prohibited any state or local law or policy from “burdening” religious freedom without providing a compelling interest that it couldn’t be achieved any other way. It was sweeping, dangerous legislation.

Kathleen was the last person to speak on the House floor that day, and she spoke vehemently against the bill. Her speech noted that “religion” wasn’t defined, except for a “sincerely held belief” and that limiting protections of fundamental rights under the guise of religious freedom would open the floodgates. Her colleagues knew Kathleen’s husband had recently spent time in Iraq. She argued that the world was at war with religious extremists, and that this bill would have fostered extremism at home in Montana. The bill then failed in a tie vote, despite being a 59-41 Republican House.

Kathleen isn’t scared to call out discrimination and extremism. She uses arguments that work, and sways her colleagues across the aisle. That’s what we need in Washington to defend equal rights for everyone.

To heal our nation, we need a member of Congress with policy chops, that both knows how to lay the groundwork for successful policy change, and how to craft it. Someone who truly represents you and seeks your best interest, not their own. Together, we can heal our nation and ensure Washington works for us not against us.

FOSTERING A PEACEFUL WORLD

Our national security is dependent on a stable, peaceful world. As the daughter of a WWII veteran and wife of a Vietnam-era veteran who went to Iraq as a civilian in 2009 to help rebuild their agricultural sector, Kathleen is deeply committed to advancing peace in the world.

Kathleen believes Congress must reassert itself in foreign policy. With this Administration in the lead, we have an incoherent, unstable, and confusing approach to international affairs that is dangerous and has damaged America’s reputation across the world.

We need Congress to fund and staff our diplomatic corps, take responsibility for effective roles in alliances and international institutions, and broadcast a consistent message to the world on where the United States stands on foreign policy and what can be expected of us. We need to minimize conflict where we can and not needlessly risk the lives and limbs of our service members. At a time when so many Montana families are already strained, peace is simply the most economically effective defense program we can have.

PROTECTING SCHOOLS FROM GUN MASSACRES

Kathleen has the courage to say enough is enough; it’s time to do something about the all-too-frequent massacres in our schools.

On the campaign trail, Kathleen has talked to teachers, school staff, and students who are afraid to go to work or go to school because they don’t know if they’ll come back alive. One teacher got into an argument with a parent at a parent-teacher conference, and left school because she thought he might come back with a gun.

Kathleen’s family has shotguns and rifles, but they never felt the need to own an AR-15. Military-style rifles need to be confined to controlled environments, like machine guns are today. We also must regulate bump stocks and ensure our background check system keeps guns out of the hands of people who should not own them.

Kathleen supports the Second Amendment. She is a gun owner. But four courts have declined to extend Second Amendment protections to military-style weapons. These are firearms designed to kill and maim quickly and broadly, not hunting equipment or for self-defense.

Guns factor into domestic violence deaths. Bozeman recently witnessed gruesome murders where former partners hunted women down and shot them in their homes. Federal law protecting women from such gun violence is arbitrarily limited. The law needs to be extended to include violence committed by dating partners. Individuals killed by current dating partners make up almost half of all spouse and partner homicides. Existing federal law should also apply to convicted stalkers and others subject to a protective order. Abused husbands, parents, and siblings must also be protected.

In the Montana Legislature, Kathleen voted against bills that would have deregulated guns on college campuses and allowed people to carry guns in all bars, restaurants, and churches. In Congress, she will work with anyone to pass common sense reforms that keep our children safe from gun massacres.[20]

—Williams for Montana[21]

Republican Party Greg Gianforte

Putting Montana First

Overregulation is strangling our economy and making it difficult for Montanans to thrive. Our coal and timber jobs have been hit particularly hard. I’ll work to rein in the job-killing regulations and end senseless Washington, D.C. policies that are harming Montana job creators. I’ll stop the terrible trade deals that have hurt our economy and send jobs to places like China. I’ll always stand up for American and Montana jobs.

Montana Jobs

I’ve spent my life in business creating high-paying Montana jobs. I started a company here twenty years ago that grew to employ over five hundred Montanans where the average pay was almost $90K per year. This success was the result of the Montana work ethic and strong leadership.

Let’s get Washington out of the way so our economy can prosper, high-paying jobs can be created, and our Montana way of life can be protected. I’ll work to rein in the out-of-touch Washington, D.C. regulations that are holding back small businesses and killing jobs. I’ll fight to protect our coal and timber jobs. And I’ll work toward commonsense solutions that encourage job creation and help Montanans get back to work in the state that we all love so Montanans don’t have to leave our great state.

Standing Up for Veterans

Montana is home to thousands of brave men and women who have selflessly served our nation in the Armed Forces. Our veterans gave so much to defend our country, but too often, Washington, D.C. has failed them. As your Representative, I’ll protect the promises our country has made to our veterans. I’ll work to bring accountability to the VA and ensure that our veterans receive the benefits they have earned and deserve.

Defending Our 2nd Amendment Rights

The Second Amendment isn’t about hunting – it’s about our Montana way of life and our freedoms guaranteed to us in our Constitution. As a lifelong sportsman and life member of the NRA, I will always protect our Second Amendment rights. There is nothing confusing about “shall not be infringed.” You can count on me to stand up to the liberal special interests and defend Montanans’ Constitutional right to keep and bear arms.

Protecting Access to Public Lands

Montana’s public lands are second to none. As an avid outdoorsman, Susan and I have raised our four kids in Montana hiking, fishing, hunting, climbing, rafting and skiing on Montana’s public lands. That’s why as your Representative, you can count on me to fight back against the liberal elites’ War on the West. I’ll defend our right to hunt, fish and recreate on public lands. I won’t let Washington bureaucrats lock us out. I’ll always protect our public lands because they should stay in public hands.

Healthcare That Works for Montanans

Big government mandates, costly regulations and double-digit hikes in healthcare costs– it’s clear that Obamacare isn’t working for Montanans. I’ll work to repeal Obamacare and replace it with real solutions that improve healthcare quality, reduce costs, and increase access for Montanans. It’s time for Montanans – not government bureaucrats – to be at the center of the healthcare equation.

Protecting Montana Seniors

I know how important Social Security and Medicare are to Montana seniors. That’s why I’ll fight hard to protect and secure these programs. I’ll stop the Washington politicians from cutting the retirement benefits Montana seniors earned. I will always fight hard for Montana seniors and protect Social Security and Medicare.

Keeping America Safe

The threats facing our country are too great to be ignored. That’s why I’ll fight every day for policies that defend our nation from those who wish to do us harm. We need to protect our border and deport criminals. We need to strengthen our military and destroy ISIS. As your Representative, I’ll always fight to keep our country safe.

Drain the Swamp

Washington, D.C. now has the highest median income in America. Washington insiders have rigged the system to cash-in at your expense. That’s why I want to help drain the swamp. I’ll lead the charge to bring accountability to Washington. I’ll support term limits and a ban to end members of Congress from becoming lobbyists. It’s time America and Montana come first.

Stop the Reckless Spending and Balance the Budget

For too long, Washington politicians’ reckless spending has been left unchecked. Our country is nearly $20 trillion in debt, and our kids and grandkids are left holding the bill. It’s time for Congress to pass a balanced budget, and stick to it – just like we do in Montana. I’ll hold the politicians accountable. If they can’t balance the budget, they shouldn’t get paid. No balanced budget, no paycheck.[20]

—Greg for Montana[22]

Social media

Twitter accounts

Facebook accounts

Click the icons below to visit the candidates' Facebook pages.

Democratic Party Kathleen Williams Facebook

Republican Party Greg Gianforte Facebook

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Three of 56 Montana counties—5.4 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Blaine County, Montana 2.46% 15.32% 19.24%
Hill County, Montana 17.18% 3.50% 12.21%
Roosevelt County, Montana 6.49% 15.58% 26.27%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Montana with 56.2 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 35.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1892 and 2016, Montana voted Republican 65.6 percent of the time and Democratic 34.4 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Montana voted Republican all five times.[23]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Montana. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[24][25]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 34 out of 100 state House districts in Montana with an average margin of victory of 17.6 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 28 out of 100 state House districts in Montana with an average margin of victory of 17.2 points. Clinton won one district controlled by a Republican heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 66 out of 100 state House districts in Montana with an average margin of victory of 28.2 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 72 out of 100 state House districts in Montana with an average margin of victory of 34.7 points. Trump won 14 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


District history

2017

See also: Montana's At-Large Congressional District special election, 2017
U.S. House, Montana At-Large Special Election, 2017
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngGreg Gianforte 50% 190,520
     Democratic Rob Quist 44.4% 169,214
     Libertarian Mark Wicks 5.7% 21,682
Total Votes 381,416
Source: Montana Secretary of State

The election was held to replace Ryan Zinke (R), who was confirmed as secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior on March 1, 2017.[26]

Republican Greg Gianforte defeated Democrat Rob Quist and Libertarian Mark Wicks, earning more than 50 percent of the vote. Gianforte was sworn in as a member of the United States House of Representatives on June 21, 2017.[27]

Primary elections were not held in the race. Instead, party leaders chose the nominees at conventions. Democrats selected musician Rob Quist at the party's convention on March 5, 2017, while Republicans nominated businessman Greg Gianforte at the party's convention on March 6, 2017. A third candidate, Libertarian Mark Wicks, was also on the ballot.[28][29][30][31]

Ballotpedia compiled the following resources to help voters better understand the policy positions of the candidates prior to the general election on May 25, 2017:

Although Montana's At-Large District seat was held by a Republican continuously from 1997, with former incumbent Ryan Zinke winning election in 2014 and 2016 by roughly 15 points, the race garnered significant national attention and fundraising. In the final week of the election alone, Quist announced that he had received $1 million, bringing his total campaign contributions to $6 million. The pro-Democrat House Majority PAC also spent $125,000 on ad buys for the election's final week. Outside organizations backing Gianforte like the Congressional Leadership Fund have spent $7 million on ad buys—approximately $4 million more than Democratic outside groups.[32][33]

On May 24, 2017, the eve of the election, Gianforte was charged with misdemeanor assault after he allegedly slammed a reporter to the ground and punched him. The Gianforte campaign refuted the reporter's account in a statement.[34][35]

2016

See also: Montana's At-Large Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Ryan Zinke (R) defeated Denise Juneau (D) and Rick Breckenridge (L) in the general election on November 8, 2016. No candidate faced a primary opponent in June.[36]

U.S. House, Montana's At-Large District General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngRyan Zinke Incumbent 56.2% 285,358
     Democratic Denise Juneau 40.5% 205,919
     Libertarian Rick Breckenridge 3.3% 16,554
Total Votes 507,831
Source: Montana Secretary of State

2014

See also: Montana's At-Large Congressional District elections, 2014

The At-Large Congressional District of Montana held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Ryan Zinke (R) defeated John Lewis (D) and Mike Fellows (Montana) (L) in the general election.

U.S. House, Montana's At-Large District General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngRyan Zinke 55.4% 203,871
     Democratic John Lewis 40.4% 148,690
     Libertarian Mike Fellows 4.2% 15,402
Total Votes 367,963
Source: Montana Secretary of State

Wave election analysis

See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)

The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?

Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.

Applying this definition to U.S. House elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose 48 seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.

The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 11 U.S. House waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.

U.S. House wave elections
Year President Party Election type House seats change House majority[37]
1932 Hoover R Presidential -97 D
1922 Harding R First midterm -76 R
1938 Roosevelt D Second midterm -70 D
2010 Obama D First midterm -63 R (flipped)
1920 Wilson D Presidential -59 R
1946 Truman D First midterm -54 R (flipped)
1994 Clinton D First midterm -54 R (flipped)
1930 Hoover R First midterm -53 D (flipped)
1942 Roosevelt D Third midterm -50 D
1966 Johnson D First midterm[38] -48 D
1974 Ford R Second midterm[39] -48 D

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Montana heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Republicans controlled both chambers of the Montana State Legislature. They had a 59-41 majority in the state House and a 32-18 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • Montana was under divided government, meaning that the two parties shared control of the state government. Steve Bullock (D) served as governor, while Republicans controlled the state legislature.

2018 elections

See also: Montana elections, 2018

Montana held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Montana
 MontanaU.S.
Total population:1,032,073316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):145,5463,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:89.2%73.6%
Black/African American:0.5%12.6%
Asian:0.7%5.1%
Native American:6.5%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2.5%3%
Hispanic/Latino:3.3%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:92.8%86.7%
College graduation rate:29.5%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$47,169$53,889
Persons below poverty level:17%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Montana.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Montana's three largest cities were Billings (pop. est. 109,642), Missoula (pop. est. 73,340), and Great Falls (pop. est. 58,876).[40][41]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Montana from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Montana Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Montana every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Montana 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 55.6% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 35.4% 20.2%
2012 Republican Party Mitt Romney 55.3% Democratic Party Barack Obama 41.7% 13.6%
2008 Republican Party John McCain 49.5% Democratic Party Barack Obama 47.2% 2.3%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 59.1% Democratic Party John Kerry 38.6% 20.5%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 58.4% Democratic Party Al Gore 33.4% 25.0%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Montana from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Montana 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Steve Daines 57.9% Democratic Party Amanda Curtis 40.0% 17.9%
2012 Democratic Party Jon Tester 48.6% Republican Party Denny Rehberg 44.6% 4.0%
2008 Democratic Party Max Baucus 72.9% Republican Party Bob Kelleher 27.1% 45.8%
2006 Democratic Party Jon Tester 49.2% Republican Party Conrad Burns 48.3% 0.9%
2002 Democratic Party Max Baucus 62.7% Republican Party Mike Taylor 31.7% 31.0%
2000 Republican Party Conrad Burns 50.6% Democratic Party Brian Schweitzer 47.2% 3.4%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Montana.

Election results (Governor), Montana 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Steve Bullock 50.2% Republican Party Greg Gianforte 46.4% 3.8%
2012 Democratic Party Steve Bullock 48.9% Republican Party Jon Sonju 47.3% 1.6%
2008 Democratic Party Brian Schweitzer 65.5% Republican Party Roy Brown 32.5% 33.0%
2004 Democratic Party Brian Schweitzer 50.4% Republican Party Bob Brown 46.0% 4.4%
2000 Republican Party Judy Martz 51.0% Democratic Party Mark O'Keefe 47.1% 3.9%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Montana in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Montana 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 1 100% Democratic Party 0 0% R+1
2014 Republican Party 1 100% Democratic Party 0 0% R+1
2012 Republican Party 1 100% Democratic Party 0 0% R+1
2010 Republican Party 1 100% Democratic Party 0 0% R+1
2008 Republican Party 1 100% Democratic Party 0 0% R+1
2006 Republican Party 1 100% Democratic Party 0 0% R+1
2004 Republican Party 1 100% Democratic Party 0 0% R+1
2002 Republican Party 1 100% Democratic Party 0 0% R+1
2000 Republican Party 1 100% Democratic Party 0 0% R+1

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Montana Party Control: 1992-2025
No Democratic trifectas  •  Fifteen years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R
Senate D D D R R R R R R R R R R D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D R R R R R R R R R R R R S S R R S S R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


See also

Footnotes

  1. If one missed the Oct. 9 deadline, he or she could have still voted in the election by registering in person at the county election office. Late registration was available until the close of polls on Election Day.
  2. If one missed the Oct. 9 deadline, he or she could have still voted in the election by registering in person at the county election office. Late registration was available until the close of polls on Election Day.
  3. DCCC, "Red to Blue," accessed October 10, 2018
  4. 4.0 4.1 Kathleen for Montana, "About Kathleen," accessed September 14, 2018
  5. YouTube, "Kathleen Williams – Love," August 22, 2018
  6. Kathleen for Montana, "Issues," accessed September 14, 2018
  7. YouTube, "Kathleen Williams – Fresh Start," July 18, 2018
  8. 8.0 8.1 Greg for Montana, "About Greg," accessed September 14, 2018
  9. Biographical Directory of the United States Congress, "Greg Gianforte," accessed September 14, 2018
  10. Greg for Montana, "Why I'm Running," accessed September 14, 2018
  11. YouTube, "Greg Giaforte (R) attack ad against Kathleen Williams (D)," accessed August 10, 2018
  12. LinkedIn, "Elinor Swanson," accessed November 1, 2018
  13. Warren & Swanson, PLLC, "Practice Areas," accessed November 1, 2018
  14. 14.0 14.1 KTVQ, "In Montana’s U.S. House race, Libertarian Swanson zeroes in on federal deficit," September 27, 2018
  15. OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed September 22, 2015
  16. OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed September 22, 2015
  17. National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," November 6, 2015
  18. Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  19. FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  20. 20.0 20.1 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
  21. Williams for Montana, "Issues," accessed September 14, 2018
  22. Greg for Montana, "Issues," accessed September 14, 2018
  23. 270towin.com, "Montana," accessed June 29, 2017
  24. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  25. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  26. The Washington Post, "Trump taps Montana congressman Ryan Zinke as interior secretary," December 13, 2016
  27. The Billings Gazette, "Gianforte set to take oath as Montana's next congressman," June 15, 2017
  28. Billings Gazette, "Democrats, Republicans plan for special election to replace Zinke," December 15, 2016
  29. KTVH, "Bullock sets soonest possible date for special election," March 1, 2017
  30. Billings Gazette, "Montana Democrats pick musician Rob Quist to run for U.S. House," March 5, 2017
  31. Billings Gazette, "Greg Gianforte wins Republican nomination for Montana's U.S. House election," March 6, 2017
  32. Politico, "Republicans: Montana special election 'closer than it should be,'" May 24, 2017
  33. The Hill, "GOP, Dems put more money into Montana special election," May 3, 2017
  34. KULR, "U.S. House candidate Greg Gianforte charged with misdemeanor assault," May 25, 2017
  35. KTVQ, "Greg Gianforte accused of body slamming reporter," May 24, 2017
  36. Montana Secretary of State, "2016 Candidate Filing List: Non-Legislative," accessed March 15, 2016
  37. Denotes the party that had more seats in the U.S. House following the election.
  38. Lyndon Johnson's (D) first term began in November 1963 after the death of President John F. Kennedy (D), who was first elected in 1960. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964.
  39. Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm.
  40. Montana Demographics, "Montana Cities by Population," accessed September 4, 2018
  41. U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts Montana," accessed September 4, 2018



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