State house elections, 2011

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Four state lower houses hold general elections for state representatives in November, 2011. This is in addition to the 4 state senates that hold general elections in November.

There are 49 state houses (Nebraska doesn't have one). The 4 state houses that are holding a general election for state representatives in November 2011 are Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia.

See also: State legislative elections, 2011 and State senate elections, 2011

By the numbers

Number of seats in all 50 houses: 5,413
Number of seats in the 4 houses with November 2011 elections: 407
Number of seats up for election in the 4 houses with November 2011 elections: 407
% of total (all 50 states) houses seats up for election in 2011: 7.5%
Number of houses with a November 2011 election with a current Democratic majority: 2
Number of houses with a November 2011 election with a current Republican majority: 2

Louisiana House of Representatives elections, 2011

See also: Partisan composition of state houses

Going into the November 2011 elections, the Republican Party was the majority party in 31 state houses, including Louisiana. One chamber (Nebraska) is officially nonpartisan and in one chamber (Alaska), several Republicans vote with a caucus other than the Republican caucus. In 19 states, the Democratic Party is the majority party.

In the other 3 states with state house elections in 2011 (Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia), the Republican Party held the majority party in Virginia, while the Democratic Party held the majority party in Mississippi and New Jersey.

The partisan composition of the Louisiana House of Representatives before and after the election:

Louisiana House of Representatives
Party As of November 2011 After the 2011 Election
     Democratic Party 46 45
     Republican Party 57 58
     Independent 2 2
Total 105 105

Candidates unopposed by a major party

2011 state legislative elections analyzed using a Competitiveness Index

Forty-three incumbents (41%) faced no competition in the November 8 general election and were thus, barring unforeseen circumstances, guaranteed re-election in November.

  • 14 Democratic incumbents faced no November challenger.
  • 29 Republican incumbent faced no November challenger

One Republican challenger faced no competition in the November 8 general election and was thus, barring unforeseen circumstances, guaranteed re-election in November.

Primary challenges

Nine incumbents faced competition in the October 22 primary.

The following 9 incumbents faced primary opposition:

Retiring incumbents

Twenty-eight incumbent representatives did not run for re-election, while 77 (73.3%) ran for re-election. Of the 28 incumbents who did not run for re-election, 14 were Democrats, 13 were Republicans, and 1 was an independent. Furthermore, 10 of the retiring incumbents were ineligible to run for re-election due to term limits and 2 were displaced by redistricting.

Incumbents who retired were:

Incumbents displaced by redistricting

Two incumbent representatives were displaced by the 2011 redistricting process. Of the 2 displaced incumbents, 1 was a Democrat and 1 was a Republican.

Incumbents who were displaced by redistricting:

  • District 81: Incumbent Republican John LaBruzzo, Jr. now resides in district 94, where he sought election.
  • District 101: Incumbent Democrat Wesley Bishop now resides in district 99, where he sought election.

Mississippi House of Representatives elections, 2011

See also: Ballotpedia news report on Mississippi primary competitiveness

Primary contests in the Mississippi House remained fairly constant since the last election. As in 2007, roughly 2/3 of the state's major party candidates will proceed to the general election without a primary challenge. In addition, over 1/4 of possible primaries will not be held, since no candidate is running. Of the 168 party primaries, only 51 feature two or more candidates competing for the nomination. On top of that, 75 party primaries will not be held because no candidate is running.

Comparing Contested Primaries of past MS Senate Elections
Democrats Republicans Total
2007 2011 2007 2011 2007 2011
Open Contested 9 8 11 15 20 23
Open Uncontested 12 21 27 19 39 40
Incumbent Contested 23 18 10 10 33 28
Incumbent Uncontested 51 40 26 37 77 77
No candidates 27 35 48 41 75 76
Total contested 32 26 21 25 53 51
Total uncontested 63 61 53 56 116 117
See also: Partisan composition of state houses

Going into the November 2011 elections, the Republican Party was the majority party in 31 state houses. One chamber (Nebraska) is officially nonpartisan and in one chamber (Alaska), several Republicans vote with a caucus other than the Republican caucus. In 19 states, the Democratic Party held the majority party. The Mississippi House of Representatives was one of the 19 chambers with a Democratic Party majority.

In the other 3 states with state house elections in 2011 (Louisiana, New Jersey and Virginia), the Republican Party held the majority in Louisiana and Virginia, while the Democratic Party was the majority party in New Jersey.

The partisan composition of the Mississippi House of Representatives before and after the election:


Mississippi House of Representatives
Party As of November 2011 After the 2011 Election
     Democratic Party 68 58
     Republican Party 54 64
Total 122 122

After the 2011 election, the Republican Party took control of the Mississippi House of Representatives for the first time since reconstruction.[1]

House control

The Democratic Party has controlled the Mississippi House of Representatives since Reconstruction. This fall may present the first opportunity for the GOP to capture the chamber. Democrats have a 13-seat advantage heading into the election. In the 2010 elections Republicans enjoyed sweeping gains across the country and in particular in southern states. According to an August 2011 Wall Street Journal article, Republicans have identified 21 House seats to target on November 8, 2011. Tim Saler, executive director of the state GOP, said the party plans to spend more than $1 million supporting candidates.[2] Meanwhile, Richard Wilbourn, an attorney, is leading a tea party effort called "Move the House" to help candidates in Democratic-held districts where Governor Haley Barbour received at least 50 percent in 2007.[3]

TEA Party seeks control

In early September the Mississippi TEA Party announced they were specifically targeting six incumbent Democrats for defeat as part of their "Move the House" effort to put the chamber in conservative control.[4] The five are as follows:

The TEA Party has also targeted 4 open seats as crucial pickups:

Candidates unopposed by a major party

2011 state legislative elections analyzed using a Competitiveness Index

Sixty incumbents (49.2%) face no competition in the November 8 general election and are thus, barring unforeseen circumstances, guaranteed re-election in November.

  • 35 Democratic incumbents face no November challenger.
  • 25 Republican incumbent face no November challenger

Primary challenges

Twenty-five incumbents faced competition in the August 22 primary. Incumbent Democrat Walter Robinson, Jr. (District 63) was defeated by challenger Deborah Butler Dixon, incumbent Democrat Wilbert Jones (District 82) was defeated by challenger Charles Young, incumbent Republican Harvey Fillingane (District 101) was defeated by challenger Hank Lott, and incumbent Democrat Roger Ishee (District 118) was defeated by challenger Greg Haney in a runoff election.

The following 21 incumbents (14 Democrats, 7 Republicans) won their primaries:

Retiring incumbents

Eighteen incumbent representatives did not run for re-election, while 104 (85.3%) ran for re-election. Of the 18 incumbents who did not run for re-election, 3 are Democrats, 6 are Republicans, and one is an independent.

Incumbents who are retiring are:

New Jersey General Assembly elections, 2011

See also: Ballotpedia news report on New Jersey primary competitiveness

Despite the heightened political climate of the 2010 general elections, New Jersey's 2011 General Assembly primaries remained mostly uncompetitive. As in previous years, a large majority of the state's major party candidates proceeded to the general election without a primary challenge. Of the 79 party primaries, only 15 were contested.

Comparing Contested Primaries in Past General Assembly Elections
Democrats Republicans Total
2007 2009 2011 2007 2009 2011 2007 2009 2011
Open contested 2 0 2 1 6 6 3 6 8
Open uncontested 15 15 14 24 17 18 39 32 32
Incumbent contested 3 9 5 3 8 2 6 6 7
Incumbent uncontested 20 16 18 9 7 14 29 23 32
No Candidates 0 0 1 3 2 0 3 2 1
Total contested 5 9 7 4 14 8 9 23 15
Total uncontested 35 31 32 33 24 32 68 55 64
See also: Partisan composition of state houses

Going into the November 2011 elections, the Republican Party was the majority party in 31 state houses. One chamber (Nebraska) was officially nonpartisan and in one chamber (Alaska), several Republicans voted with a caucus other than the Republican caucus. In 19 states, the Democratic Party was the majority party. The New Jersey General Assembly was one of the 19 chambers with a Democratic Party majority.

In the other 3 states with state house elections in 2011 (Louisiana, Mississippi and Virginia), the Republican Party was the majority party in Louisiana and Virginia, while the Democratic Party was the majority party in Mississippi. The partisan composition of the New Jersey General Assembly as follows:

New Jersey General Assembly
Party As of November 2011 After the 2011 Election
     Democratic Party 47 48
     Republican Party 33 32
Total 80 80

Races to watch

  • Districts 2, 14, & 38: These districts were considered among the most competitive in the November 8 general election. Both PolitickerNJ and Asbury Park Press identified these districts as some of few competitive races in 2011. APP noted that all three districts became more Republican on paper with a shrinking proportion of registered Democrats. However, PolitickerNJ predicted that these changes would not ultimately result in GOP pick ups. NJ Spotlight even predicted that Assemblyman Vincent Polistina's decision to run for the Senate, could weaken the GOP assembly ticket in District 2.[5][6][7]
  • District 1: PolitickerNJ noted that District 1 appeared to have Republican leanings--on paper. However, strong historical support for Senator Jeff Van Drew (D) called the predictive power of these figures into question. However, NJSpotlight noted that Republicans seemed to be focused on reclaiming the district's assembly seats. Nevertheless, redistricting weakened the Republican base in District 1.[6][7]
  • District 7: District 7 was split between parties, with Republicans controlling the Senate seat and Democrats controlling the two Assembly seats. PolitickerNJ noted that several Republican-leaning areas were added to the area in redistricting, but Democratic turnout in these areas had the potential to expand in 2011. Joseph Malone, III (R) was also moved into District 7 via redistricting, but decided to retire. Jack Conners (D), on the other hand, was moved out of District 7 by redistricting and ultimately decided to retire. Troy Singleton was quickly appointed to replace Connors in the Assembly and run in District 7.[6][7]
  • District 11: District 11 was reshaped to become a minority opportunity district. While NJSpotlight predicted a win for the GOP ticket, PolitickerNJ noted that the Asbury Park Press endorsement of Vin Gopal (D) could increase his chances of election. Also, the Democratic challengers in District 11 raised over $100,000.[6][7]
  • District 16: District 16 was also significantly reshaped in 2011, moving its population center away from Somerset County. All of the Republican candidates (two incumbents and one challenger) were from the Somerset area. However, NJSpotlight noted that despite these changes and balanced partisan registration, the Democratic ticket remained relatively unfamiliar to voters.[6][7]

Christie predicts "historic" results

About two weeks before the general election, Governor Chris Christie (R) predicted that his party would retain its legislative seats on November 8. History, however, suggests that midterm losses are the norm for the governor's political party. Christie acknowledged that the results would "defy history."[8]

Candidates unopposed by a major party

2011 state legislative elections analyzed using a Competitiveness Index

All 80 district seats in the New Jersey General Assembly had three or more candidates on the 2011 general election ballot, leaving no districts uncontested.

Primary challenges

Twelve incumbents faced competition in the June 7 primary.

The following 12 incumbents (8 Democrats, 4 Republicans) won their primaries:

Retiring incumbents

Eighteen incumbent representatives did not run for re-election, while 62 (77.5%) ran for re-election. Of the 18 incumbents who did not run for re-election, three were Democrats, six were Republicans, and one was an independent.

Incumbents who retired were:

Incumbents displaced by redistricting

Eight incumbent representatives were displaced by the 2011 redistricting process. Of the eight displaced incumbents, one was a Democrat and seven were Republicans.

Incumbents who were displaced by redistricting:

  • District 4: Incumbent Republican Domenick DiCicco, redistricted to District 3.
  • District 11: Incumbent Republican David Rible, redistricted to District 30.
  • District 12: Incumbent Republican Caroline Casagrande, redistricted to District 11.
  • District 12: Incumbent Republican Declan O'Scanlon, Jr., redistricted to District 13.
  • District 16: Incumbent Republican Denise Coyle, did not seek re-election.
  • District 30: Incumbent Republican Joseph Malone, III, redistricted to District 7.
  • District 30: Incumbent Republican Ronald Dancer, redistricted to District 12.
  • District 32: Incumbent Democrat Joan Quigley, did not seek re-election.

Virginia House of Delegates elections, 2011

The total number of contested primaries remained low from 2009 to 2011.

Comparing Contested Primaries in Past VA House Elections
Democrats Republicans Total
2009 2011 2009 2011 2009 2011
Open contested 6 1 3 5 9 6
Incumbent contested 2 1 0 0 2 1
Total contested 8 2 3 5 11 7

Uncontested primaries

There are a total of 100 districts in the Virginia House of Delegates, meaning that normally there would be 200 primaries. However, some districts use a caucus or convention rather than a primary to decide which candidate to send to the general election. 39 out of the 200 potential primaries decide on a candidate this way, leaving 161 which use primaries. Of these 161 primaries, only seven were contested (4.3 percent).

District without primaries

The following district/party combinations do not use a primary.

Democratic Party Democrats: Districts 2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 13, 15, 16, 18, 20, 21, 25, 31, 32, 33, 50, 51, 56, 57, 59, 67, 72, 73, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 98

Republican Party Republicans: Districts 1, 3, 15, 26, 47, 59, 64, 75, 88

See also: Partisan composition of state houses

Going into the November 2011 elections, the Republican Party was the majority party in 31 state houses, including Virginia. One chamber (Nebraska) is officially nonpartisan and in one chamber (Alaska), several Republicans voted with a caucus other than the Republican caucus. In 19 states, the Democratic Party held the majority party.

In the other three states with state house elections in 2011 (Louisiana, Mississippi and New Jersey), the Republican Party held the majority party in Louisiana, while the Democratic Party held the majority party in Mississippi and New Jersey.

The partisan composition of the Virginia House of Delegates before and after the 2011 election was:

Virginia House of Delegates
Party As of November 2011 After the 2011 Election
     Democratic Party 39 32
     Republican Party 58 67
     Independent 2 1
     Vacancy 1 0
Total 100 100


Candidates unopposed by a major party

2011 state legislative elections analyzed using a Competitiveness Index

Fifty-nine incumbents (59%) faced no competition in the November 8 general election and were thus, barring unforeseen circumstances, guaranteed re-election in November.

  • 18 Democratic incumbents faced no November challenger.
  • 41 Republican incumbents faced no November challenger

Primary challenges

Only one incumbent faced competition in the August 23 primary. That incumbent, Algie Howell defeated his challenger, Richard James.

Retiring incumbents

Ten incumbent representatives did not run for re-election, while 90 (90%) ran for re-election. Of the 10 incumbents who did not run for re-election, three were Democrats, six were Republicans, and one was an independent.

Incumbents who retired were:

Incumbents displaced by redistricting

Four incumbent representatives were displaced by the 2011 redistricting process. Of the four displaced incumbents, three were Democrats and one was a Republican.

Incumbents who were displaced by redistricting:

  • District 2: Incumbent Democrat Clarence E. Phillips was moved to District 4.
  • District 10: Incumbent Democrat Ward Armstrong was moved to District 16, but moved his residence to District 9.
  • District 18: Incumbent Republican Clay Athey was moved to District 29.
  • District 87: Incumbent Democrat Paula Miller was moved to District 100.

Projected outcomes of state house elections, 2011

See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Wall Street Journal, "Mississippi House Likely to See Shift in Power," November 9, 2011
  2. ↑ Wall Street Journal, "Mississippi Republicans Aim for a Sweep in State," August 25, 2011
  3. ↑ Real Clear Politics, "Tea party targets some Dem seats in Miss. House," August 10, 2011
  4. ↑ Sun Herald, "TEA Party targets 10 Mississippi House seats," September 6, 2011
  5. ↑ Asbury Park Press, "Race for Legislature is on," September 23, 2011
  6. ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 PolitickerNJ, "New Jersey Legislative Forecast," November 1, 2011
  7. ↑ 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 NJ Spotlight, "Election 2011: Where the Republicans Can Pick Up Assembly Seats," April 12, 2011
  8. ↑ The Republic, "Christie: NJ GOP won't lose any legislative seats to Democrats in upcoming midterm elections," November 1, 2011
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