South Carolina State Senate elections, 2016
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| 2016 South Carolina Senate Elections | |
|---|---|
 | |
| Primary | June 14, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
| 2012・2008・2004・2000 | |
| 2016 Elections | |
|---|---|
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All 46 seats in the South Carolina State Senate were up for election in 2016. No changes occurred to the partisan balance of the chamber.
Introduction
Elections for the South Carolina State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election took place on June 14, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The primary runoff election was held on June 28, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was March 30, 2016.
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the South Carolina State Senate:
| South Carolina State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 18 | 18 | |
| Republican Party | 28 | 28 | |
| Total | 46 | 46 | |
Retired incumbents
Three incumbent senators did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents are:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Lourie | Senate District 22 | |
| Raymond Cleary | Senate District 34 | |
| Paul Thurmond | Senate District 41 |
Note: Michael Gambrell (R) was elected to District 4 in a special election on May 17, 2016.
2016 election competitiveness
South Carolina continues to lack in general election competition.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well South Carolina performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the South Carolina State Senate, there were 18 Democratic incumbents and 28 Republican incumbents. Six incumbents faced primary challengers in the Democratic Party. There were 14 incumbents who faced primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- In the House, there were 46 Democratic incumbents and 78 Republican incumbents. Eight state representatives faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were 14 incumbents who faced primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in South Carolina can be found below.
List of candidates
General election
| 2016 South Carolina Senate candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Other | ||
| 1 | No candidate | Thomas Alexander: 33,175 (I) |
|
| 2 | No candidate | Rex Rice: 36,944 |
|
| 3 | No candidate | Kevin Bryant: 40,287 (I) |
|
| 4 | No candidate | Michael Gambrell: 28,064 (I) |
|
| 5 | No candidate | Tom Corbin: 39,364 (I) |
|
| 6 | No candidate | William Timmons: 31,732 |
Roy G. Magnuson: 5,556 (Constitution) |
| 7 | Karl Allen: 21,518 (I) |
Glen Robinson: 13,209 | |
| 8 | No candidate | Ross Turner: 42,425 (I) |
|
| 9 | No candidate | Daniel Verdin: 32,168 (I) |
|
| 10 | Floyd Nicholson: 19,331 (I) |
J. Bryan Hope: 18,342 | |
| 11 | Glenn Reese: 20,825 (I) |
Cornelius Huff: 17,225 | |
| 12 | No candidate | Scott Talley: 41,352 |
|
| 13 | No candidate | Shane Martin: 36,239 (I) |
|
| 14 | No candidate | Harvey Peeler: 36,427 (I) |
|
| 15 | No candidate | Wes Climer: 39,584 |
|
| 16 | No candidate | Greg Gregory: 44,508 (I) |
|
| 17 | Mike Fanning: 23,735 |
Mark Palmer: 20,762 | |
| 18 | No candidate | Ronnie Cromer: 43,288 (I) |
|
| 19 | John Scott: 35,946 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 20 | No candidate | John Courson: 30,267 (I) |
Scott West: 10,166 (G) |
| 21 | Darrell Jackson: 30,294 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 22 | Mia McLeod: 26,530 |
Susan Brill: 21,696 | |
| 23 | No candidate | Katrina Shealy: 32,393 (I) |
|
| 24 | No candidate | Tom Young: 38,279 (I) |
|
| 25 | No candidate | Shane Massey: 34,890 (I) |
|
| 26 | Nikki Setzler: 21,702 (I) |
Brad Lindsey: 15,392 | |
| 27 | Vincent Sheheen: 27,101 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 28 | No candidate | Greg Hembree: 35,257 (I) |
|
| 29 | Gerald Malloy: 28,519 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 30 | Kent Williams: 31,560 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 31 | No candidate | Hugh Leatherman: 32,439 (I) |
|
| 32 | Ronnie Sabb: 31,164 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 33 | No candidate | Luke Rankin: 36,270 (I) |
|
| 34 | No candidate | Stephen Goldfinch Jr.: 45,945 |
|
| 35 | Thomas McElveen: 31,113 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 36 | Kevin Johnson: 24,725 (I) |
Leon Winn: 15,024 | |
| 37 | No candidate | Lawrence Grooms: 39,314 (I) |
|
| 38 | No candidate | Sean Bennett: 34,034 (I) |
|
| 39 | John Matthews: 30,716 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 40 | Brad Hutto: 34,069 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 41 | No candidate | Sandy Senn: 39,313 |
|
| 42 | Marlon Kimpson: 29,289 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 43 | No candidate | George Campsen: 39,056 (I) |
|
| 44 | No candidate | Paul Campbell: 30,795 (I) |
|
| 45 | Margie Bright Matthews: 29,994 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 46 | No candidate | Tom Davis: 42,931 (I) |
|
| Notes | • An (I) denotes an incumbent. | ||
| • Candidate lists can change frequently throughout an election season. Ballotpedia staff update this list monthly. To suggest changes, click here to email our State Legislature Project. | |||
Primary election
| 2016 South Carolina Senate primary candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Other | ||
| 1 | No candidate | Thomas Alexander (I) |
|
| 2 | No candidate | Don Joslyn: 1,634 Larry Martin: 6,284 (I)  Allan Quinn: 1,378 Rex Rice: 4,641 |
|
| 3 | No candidate | Kevin Bryant: 7,874 (I) Carol Burdette: 7,504 |
|
| 4 | No candidate | Rockey Burgess: 3,279 Michael Gambrell: 6,075 (I) |
|
| 5 | No candidate | Tom Corbin: 5,442 (I) John White: 5,116 |
|
| 6 | No candidate | Johnny Edwards: 1,399 Michael Fair: 3,578 (I) William Timmons: 4,880 |
Roy G. Magnuson (Constitution) |
| 7 | Karl Allen: 2,749 (I) Lillian Brock Flemming: 1,119 |
Glen Robinson |
|
| 8 | No candidate | Ross Turner (I) |
|
| 9 | No candidate | Daniel Verdin (I) |
|
| 10 | Floyd Nicholson (I) |
J. Bryan Hope |
|
| 11 | Glenn Reese (I) |
Cornelius Huff |
|
| 12 | No candidate | Lee Bright: 3,681 (I) David McCraw: 2,241 Lisa Scott: 1,250 Scott Talley: 2,594 |
|
| 13 | No candidate | Shane Martin (I) |
|
| 14 | No candidate | Harvey Peeler (I) Kenny Price |
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| 15 | No candidate | Wes Climer: 4,993 Wes Hayes: 4,643 (I) |
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| 16 | No candidate | Greg Gregory (I) |
|
| 17 | Creighton Coleman: 4,760 (I) Mike Fanning: 4,339 Morgan Reeves: 612 |
Mark Palmer |
|
| 18 | No candidate | Ronnie Cromer (I) |
|
| 19 | Torrey Rush: 3,592 John Scott: 5,833 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 20 | Tom Reddick |
John Courson (I) |
Scott West (G) |
| 21 | Wendy C. Brawley: 3,894 Darrell Jackson: 6,289 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 22 | Mia McLeod |
Susan Brill |
|
| 23 | No candidate | Katrina Shealy: 4,386 (I) Michael Sturkie: 2,095 Patricia Wheat: 606 |
|
| 24 | No candidate | Tom Young (I) |
|
| 25 | No candidate | Shane Massey: 5,597 (I) John Pettigrew: 3,913 |
|
| 26 | Nikki Setzler (I) |
Brad Lindsey |
|
| 27 | Vincent Sheheen (I) |
No candidate | |
| 28 | No candidate | Greg Hembree (I) |
|
| 29 | Gerald Malloy (I) |
No candidate | |
| 30 | Patrick T. Richardson: 3,359 Kent Williams: 13,041 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 31 | No candidate | Richard Skipper: 4,462 Dean Fowler Jr.: 558 Hugh Leatherman: 5,948 (I) |
|
| 32 | Ronnie Sabb (I) |
No candidate | |
| 33 | No candidate | Scott Pyle: 3,959 Luke Rankin: 5,015 (I) |
|
| 34 | No candidate | Reese Boyd: 3,096 Joe Ford: 852 Stephen Goldfinch Jr.: 3,233 Dick Withington: 400 |
|
| 35 | Thomas McElveen (I) |
No candidate | |
| 36 | Kevin Johnson (I) |
Leon Winn |
|
| 37 | No candidate | Lawrence Grooms: 3,550 (I) Mark Robin Heath: 917 |
|
| 38 | No candidate | Sean Bennett: 5,740 (I) Evan Guthrie: 3,254 |
|
| 39 | John Matthews (I) |
No candidate | |
| 40 | Brad Hutto (I) |
No candidate | |
| 41 | No candidate | Culver Kidd: 1,106 Tim Mallard: 1,231 Roy Maybank: 1569 Joe Qualey: 155 Sandy Senn: 2,679 |
|
| 42 | Robert Ford: 972 Marlon Kimpson: 3,648 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 43 | No candidate | George Campsen (I) |
|
| 44 | No candidate | Paul Campbell (I) |
|
| 45 | Margie Bright Matthews (I) |
No candidate | |
| 46 | No candidate | Tom Davis (I) |
|
| Notes | • An (I) denotes an incumbent. denotes a candidate who moved on to a runoff election.
| ||
| • Candidate lists can change frequently throughout an election season. Ballotpedia staff update this list monthly. To suggest changes, click here to email our State Legislature Project. | |||
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the South Carolina State Senate in 2016 was lower than the national average. Out of 46 races in the South Carolina State Senate in 2016, nine were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 23.8 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[1]
| Republican candidates in the South Carolina State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic candidates in 2016. Republicans won 28 races. In the two races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 60 percent. Democrats won 18 races in 2016. In the seven races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 13.4 percent. |
| More Democratic candidates than Republican candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. Three of the nine contested races in 2016—33.3 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. One race saw a margin of victory that was 5 percent or less. Democrats won all three races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less. |
South Carolina State Senate: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 10 D 2.6 percent District 11 D 9.5 percent District 17 D 6.7 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the South Carolina State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was lower than the national average. Thirty-eight incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the six winning South Carolina State Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 21.2 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Republican incumbents in the South Carolina State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic incumbents. 22 Republican incumbents won re-election. In the one race where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the margin of victory was 49.7 percent. 16 Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the five races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 15.5 percent. |
South Carolina State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[2] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[2] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 18 13.4 percent 16 15.5 percent 11 11 61.1 percent Republican 28 60.0 percent 22 49.7 percent 21 26 92.9 percent Total 46 23.8 percent 38 21.2 percent 32 37 80.4 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in South Carolina State Senate districts in 2016.
| South Carolina State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1 | R | Unopposed |
| District 2 | R | Unopposed |
| District 3 | R | Unopposed |
| District 4 | R | Unopposed |
| District 5 | R | Unopposed |
| District 6 | R | 70.2 percent |
| District 7 | D | 23.9 percent |
| District 8 | R | Unopposed |
| District 9 | R | Unopposed |
| District 10 | D | 2.6 percent |
| District 11 | D | 9.5 percent |
| District 12 | R | Unopposed |
| District 13 | R | Unopposed |
| District 14 | R | Unopposed |
| District 15 | R | Unopposed |
| District 16 | R | Unopposed |
| District 17 | D | 6.7 percent |
| District 18 | R | Unopposed |
| District 19 | D | Unopposed |
| District 20 | R | 49.7 percent |
| District 21 | D | Unopposed |
| District 22 | D | 10.0 percent |
| District 23 | R | Unopposed |
| District 24 | R | Unopposed |
| District 25 | R | Unopposed |
| District 26 | D | 17.0 percent |
| District 27 | D | Unopposed |
| District 28 | R | Unopposed |
| District 29 | D | Unopposed |
| District 30 | D | Unopposed |
| District 31 | R | Unopposed |
| District 32 | D | Unopposed |
| District 33 | R | Unopposed |
| District 34 | R | Unopposed |
| District 35 | D | Unopposed |
| District 36 | D | 24.4 percent |
| District 37 | R | Unopposed |
| District 38 | R | Unopposed |
| District 39 | D | Unopposed |
| District 40 | D | Unopposed |
| District 41 | R | Unopposed |
| District 42 | D | Unopposed |
| District 43 | R | Unopposed |
| District 44 | R | Unopposed |
| District 45 | D | Unopposed |
| District 46 | R | Unopposed |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: South Carolina elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in South Carolina in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| March 16, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing period opens for primary candidates | |
| March 30, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing period closes for primary candidates | |
| April 10, 2016 | Campaign finance | Quarterly campaign finance report due | |
| June 14, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| July 10, 2016 | Campaign finance | Quarterly campaign finance report due | |
| July 15, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for independent candidates | |
| October 10, 2016 | Campaign finance | Quarterly campaign finance report due | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| Sources: South Carolina Election Commission, "2016 Election Calendar," accessed September 21, 2015 South Carolina State Ethics Commission, "2016 Calendar," accessed January 11, 2016 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 38 of the 46 districts up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of 27 Republicans and 11 Democrats were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 8 (17.3%) of the 46 districts up for election.
Primary challenges
Nineteen incumbents faced primary competition on June 14. Three incumbents did not seek re-election, one seat was vacant and another 23 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition. The following incumbent was defeated in the primary:
- District 15: Incumbent Wes Hayes was defeated by Wes Climer in the Republican primary.
Primary runoff
The following incumbents were defeated in the primary runoff:
- District 2: Incumbent Larry Martin was defeated by Rex Rice in the Republican primary runoff.
- District 6: Incumbent Michael Fair was defeated by William Timmons in the Republican primary runoff.
- District 12: Incumbent Lee Bright was defeated by Scott Talley in the Republican primary runoff.
- District 17: Incumbent Creighton Coleman was defeated by Mike Fanning in the Democratic primary runoff.
Retired incumbents
Three incumbent senators did not run for re-election. Forty-three incumbents ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents, two Republicans and one Democrat, can be found above.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details South Carolina's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| South Carolina Legislature 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 7.3% | 17.4% | 23.4% | 16.0 | 46 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in South Carolina in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[3]
| South Carolina State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2012 | 88 | $9,499,648 |
| 2008 | 103 | $12,266,615 |
Qualifications
To be eligible to serve in the South Carolina State Senate, a candidate must be:[4]
- A U.S. citizen at the time of filing
- 21 years old at the filing deadline time
- A resident of the district at the filing deadline time
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in South Carolina," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ South Carolina Secretary of State, "Qualifications for office," accessed December 18, 2013
