Republican Party primaries, 2018

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Ballotpedia covered every Republican Party state and federal primary in 2018 to highlight the intraparty conflicts that shaped the party and the general election. This page is an overview of those primaries, with links to Ballotpedia's coverage of all Republican U.S. House, U.S. Senate, and state-level primaries.

We also identified specific Republican battleground primaries, which were covered in greater depth on our site and which are highlighted by state and month in the charts below. Click here for a list of these Republican battleground primaries.

Click here to read about Democratic Party primaries in 2018.

Primary season roundup from the Heart of the Primaries

See also: Heart of the Primaries, Republicans-Issue 31 (September 14, 2018)

Our final edition of Heart of the Primaries newsletter summarized the key stories and developments from 2018's primary elections:

Top 10 Republican Primaries

These 10 Republican Party primaries were the most compelling intra-party contests of this cycle, either because they reflect an ideological battle between two factions within the party or a close primary contest in a battleground election. Our final list contains primaries for four U.S House seats, four gubernatorial races, one U.S Senate seat, and one set of state legislative contests.

The House Freedom Caucus in 2018 primaries

Candidates affiliated with the House Freedom Caucus won eight of the 18 competitive primaries they ran in this year.

Only six of the 18 primaries occurred in districts previously represented by Freedom Caucus members, meaning the group could add two new members if all of its candidates win in November.

Notable races include:

  • Freedom Caucus-backed Mark Harris’ defeat of incumbent Robert Pittenger.
  • Katie Arrington’s defeat of Freedom Caucus member Mark Sanford.
  • Businessman Kevin Hern’s win over Freedom Caucus-backed Andy Harris in former Freedom Caucus member Jim Bridenstine’s seat.

2018 primaries: more candidates, contested primaries, and open seats

16,889 candidates ran for 6,754 seats in state and federal primaries across the country this year.

  • An average of 2.5 candidates filed for each seat up for election. This is up from 2.2 candidates per seat in 2016 and 2.15 candidates per seat in 2014.
  • Twenty percent of seats were open in 2018. This was also up from 17.4 percent in 2016 and 16.4 percent in 2014.
  • More primaries—24.1 percent—were contested in 2018 than the past two election cycles. In 2016, 19.4 percent of primaries were contested. In 2014, 18.2 percent of primaries were contested.
  • Incumbents also faced a greater number of contested primaries: 25.6 percent in 2018 compared to 23.3 percent in 2016 and 22 percent in 2014.

State legislative incumbents facing primary challenges

In 2018, 557 Republican state legislators seeking re-election—19.6 percent—faced a primary challenger.

  • Of the 557 Republicans to face a primary challenge, 67 were defeated—the lowest number for an even-numbered year since 2010. Put another way, 88.0 percent of Republican legislators facing primary challengers won their primaries.
  • In 2016, 84 Republican legislators were defeated by primary challengers, meaning that 86.1 percent facing primary challengers won their primaries.
  • In 2014, 85 Republican legislators were defeated by primary challengers.

Forty-three states have both detailed 2016 presidential results available and are holding legislative elections for partisan legislatures this year. In those states, 680 Republican legislators opted to not seek re-election.

  • Legislators in districts Hillary Clinton (D) won in 2016 accounted for 11.8 percent of Republican seats up in these states but represent 14.4 percent of Republican retirements.
  • Legislators in districts that overlap with pivot counties—areas that backed Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and Donald Trump (R) in 2016—make up 11.2 percent of Republican seats up in these states and account for 15.3 percent of Republican retirements.

2018's closest primary elections

The 10 closest primaries held between January and June 2018 all had seven or fewer votes separating the winning and losing candidates. The closest primary was for a state legislative seat in Pennsylvania, which was won by one vote. Three races were determined by a margin of two votes, and one race was determined by a margin of three votes. Three of the primaries involved incumbents and all three incumbents won.

Closest Republican primaries (2018)
Race Winning votes Losing votes Vote difference
PA State House Dist. 193 1,784 1,783 1
AR State House Dist. 90 1,068 1,066 2
OR State House Dist. 53 3,771 3,769 2
MT State House Dist. 92 414 412 2
San Diego City Council Dist. 8 4,087 4,084 3
WV State House Dist. 16 848 844 4
Clark County (NV) Public Administrator 29,514 29,518 4
OK State House Dist. 12 2,338 2,333 5
TX State House Dist. 107 2,064 2,058 6
ME State House Dist. 110 210 203 7


Republican federal primaries

See also: United States Congress elections, 2018

All 435 U.S. House seats and 33 U.S. Senate seats are up for election on November 6, 2018. Republicans held a 237-193 majority in the House and a 51-47 majority in the Senate. Ballotpedia's coverage of Republican federal election primaries in 2018 is linked below.

Ballotpedia identified 50 Republican federal battleground primaries in 2018.

Scroll over the map below for more information about federal battleground primaries in each state.

Republican federal battleground primaries

U.S. Senate

U.S. House

Factional conflict

See more here: Republican Party factional conflict in U.S. House primaries, 2018

Disputes between potential members of the House Freedom Caucus and other members of the Republican Party occurred in U.S. House primaries in 2018.

Led by U.S. Reps. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) and Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), the House Freedom Caucus supported candidates who were likely to join its ranks if elected to the House.[1][2] Other wings of the Republican Party, including those aligned with House Republican leadership, often preferred candidates not aligned with the Freedom Caucus.

The Freedom Caucus said it "gives a voice to countless Americans who feel that Washington does not represent them" and supported "open, accountable and limited government, the Constitution and the rule of law, and policies that promote the liberty, safety and prosperity of all Americans."[3] The Pew Research Center said the group formed in January 2015 "with the declared aim of pushing the House GOP leadership rightward on certain fiscal and social issues" and wanted "power shifted away from the leadership to the rank-and-file."[4]

Other House Republican caucuses more closely allied with leadership included the Republican Main Street Partnership, which aimed for "conservative, pragmatic, solutions-oriented policies that can gain support from legislators on both sides of the aisle," and the Republican Study Committee, which "is dedicated to a limited and Constitutional role for the federal government, a strong national defense, the protection of individual and property rights, and the preservation of traditional family values."[5][6]

Scott Wong wrote for The Hill that the primaries were a "proxy battle over how much influence...the Freedom Caucus can exert over the House GOP conference next year— and who might lead Republicans after retiring Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) steps down."[5] Jordan emerged as a speaker contender and announced he would run for the position against Ryan's preferred candidate, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.).[5] After Republicans lost their majority in the general elections, McCarthy defeated Jordan in a contest for Republican minority leader. The vote was 159 to 43.[7]

To detail this fight, we identified competitive open Republican primaries where the Freedom Caucus or its leaders backed a candidate.[8] We also considered primaries where candidates say they would join the Freedom Caucus if elected.

U.S. House Republican factions
Faction Primary victories in 2018 Seats held prior to primaries Performance
Affiliated with the House Freedom Caucus 8 6 +2
Not affiliated with the House Freedom Caucus[9] 10 12 -2

Republican state primaries

See also: State executive official elections, 2018 and State legislative elections, 2018

There were 68 state legislative chambers, 33 governorships, 27 attorney general offices, and 28 secretary of state offices held by Republicans entering the 2018 election. Ballotpedia's coverage of Republican state legislative and executive primaries in 2018 is linked below.

Ballotpedia identified 28 Republican state executive battleground primaries in 2018.

Scroll over the map below for more information about state battleground primaries across the country.

Republican state battleground primaries

Gubernatorial races

Lieutenant governor races

Attorney general races

Secretary of state races

Other state executive races

Primaries by state

All 50 states held primaries for state or federal offices in 2018. Arizona had two 2018 primaries—a special primary election for its 8th Congressional District seat on February 27 and a regular state and federal primary on August 28. New York held primaries for federal offices on June 26, while primaries for state and local offices there took place on September 13. In Louisiana, all candidates appeared on the November 6 primary ballot regardless of partisan affiliation. If one candidate received more than 50 percent of the vote, they won the election outright. Otherwise, the top two candidates advanced to a general election on December 8.

Ballotpedia identified 78 Republican federal and state battleground primaries in 2018.


Scroll over the bars on the chart below to see the number of battleground primaries by date for each party.

Ballotpedia's coverage of Republican Party primaries in each state is linked on the map below.

http://ballotpedia.org/Republican_Party_primaries_in_STATE,_2018

See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ House Freedom Fund, "Endorsements," accessed May 15, 2018
  2. ↑ McClatchy DC, "House Freedom Caucus looks to gain members as Texas GOP voters head for polls," March 5, 2018
  3. ↑ Facebook, "House Freedom Caucus," accessed May 29, 2018
  4. ↑ Pew Research Center, "What is the House Freedom Caucus, and who’s in it?" October 20, 2015
  5. ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 The Hill, "Freedom Caucus bruised but unbowed in GOP primary fights," May 22, 2018
  6. ↑ Politico, "Conservatives split off from Republican Study Committee," January 13, 2015
  7. ↑ The Hill, "McCarthy defeats Jordan for minority leader in 159-to-43 vote," November 14, 2018
  8. ↑ We chose to focus on open primaries in order to see how many new members the caucus could potentially add after the 2018 elections.
  9. ↑ This includes all seats not held by members of the Freedom Caucus prior to the 2018 elections, including those held by Democrats.
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