Presidential election in Mississippi, 2016

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General election in Mississippi
  Date: November 8, 2016
2016 winner: Donald Trump
Electoral votes: 6
2012 winner: Mitt Romney (R)
Democratic primary
  Date: March 8, 2016
Winner: Hillary Clinton
Republican caucuses
  Date: March 8, 2016
Winner: Donald Trump
Down ballot races in Mississippi
  U.S. House
Mississippi judicial elections
Mississippi local judicial elections
School boards
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Mississippi held an election for the president of the United States on November 8, 2016. Democratic and Republican primaries took place on March 8, 2016.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • Donald Trump won Mississippi in the general election. In 2016, Mississippi had six electoral votes, which was 1.1 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 2.2 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election.
  • Between 1900 and 2016, Mississippi cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 46.67 percent of the time, the one of the lowest accuracy rates in the country. In that same time frame, Mississippi supported Democratic candidates more often than Republicans, 50 to 40 percent. The state, however, favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.
  • Presidential primary elections in Mississippi took place on March 8, 2016. Hillary Clinton won the Democratic primary with 82.5 percent of the vote. Donald Trump won the Republican primary with 47.2 percent.

    • General election candidates and results

    Candidates

    See also: Ballot access for presidential candidates

    The candidate list below is based on an official list on the Mississippi secretary of state website. The candidate names below appear in the order in which they were listed on the official list—not necessarily the order in which they appeared on the ballot in November. Write-in candidates were not included in the list below.

    Presidential candidates on the ballot in Mississippi

    ☐ Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (Democratic)
    ☑ Donald Trump/Mike Pence (Republican)
    ☐ Darrell Lane Castle/Scott Bradley (Constitution)
    ☐ Rocky De La Fuente/Michael Steinberg (American Delta)
    ☐ Jim Hedges/Bill Bayes (Prohibition)
    ☐ Gary Johnson/Bill Weld (Libertarian)
    ☐ Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka (Green)

    Results

    U.S. presidential election, Mississippi, 2016
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Democratic Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine 40.1% 485,131 0
         Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDonald Trump/Mike Pence 57.9% 700,714 6
         Libertarian Gary Johnson/Bill Weld 1.2% 14,435 0
         Green Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka 0.3% 3,731 0
         Constitution Darrell Lane Castle/Scott Bradley 0.3% 3,987 0
         American Delta Rocky De La Fuente/Michael Steinberg 0.1% 644 0
         Prohibition Jim Hedges/Bill Bayes 0.1% 715 0
    Total Votes 1,209,357 6
    Election results via: Mississippi Secretary of State

    Pivot Counties

    See also: Pivot Counties: The counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump from 2008-2016

    Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012, in 34 states.[1] Collectively, Trump won these Pivot Counties by more than 580,000 votes, and had an average margin of victory of 11.45 percent. The political shift in these counties could have a broad impact on elections at every level of government for the next four years.

    Historical election trends

    See also: Presidential election accuracy

    Below is an analysis of Mississippi's voting record in presidential elections. The state's accuracy is based on the number of times a state has voted for a winning presidential candidate. The majority of statistical data is from the U.S. National Archives and Records Administration and was compiled, here, by Ballotpedia, unless otherwise noted.

    Presidential election voting record in Mississippi, 1900-2016

    Between 1900 and 2016:

    • Mississippi participated in 30 presidential elections.
    • Mississippi voted for the winning presidential candidate 46,67 percent of the time. The average accuracy of voting for winning presidential candidates for all 50 states in this time frame was 72.31 percent.[2]
    • Mississippi voted Democratic 50 percent of the time and Republican 40 percent of the time.

    Most and least accurate states, 1900-2016

    Below is the list of the most accurate states and the least accurate states when it comes to voting for the winning presidential candidate.

    Most accurate states, 1900-2016
    State Percentage of accuracy
    Ohio 93.33% (28 out of 30 elections)
    New Mexico 88.89% (24 out of 27 elections)
    Nevada 86.67% (26 out of 30 elections)
    Missouri 86.67% (26 out of 30 elections)
    Illinois 83.33% (25 out of 30 elections)
    Least accurate states, 1900-2016
    State Percentage of accuracy
    Washington, D.C. 42.86% (6 out of 14 elections)
    Mississippi 46.67% (14 out of 30 elections)
    Alabama 51.72% (15 out of 29 elections)
    Georgia 53.33% (16 out of 30 elections)
    South Carolina 53.33% (16 out of 30 elections)

    Third-party candidate races

    In 1948, Harry S. Truman ran as a Democrat, Thomas E. Dewey ran as a Republican, and J. Strom Thurmond ran under the States' Rights Democratic Party, also known as the Dixiecrats. Thurmond won Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina.[3] In 1960, Harry F. Byrd (D), running against Richard Nixon (R) and John F. Kennedy (D), took six unpledged electoral votes in Alabama and one in Oklahoma. He did win Mississippi with eight electoral votes.[4][5] In 1968, Richard Nixon ran as the Republican, Hubert H. Humphrey ran as the Democrat, and George Wallace ran under the American Independent Party and won Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, and Mississippi.[6]

    Presidential election voting record in Mississippi, 2000-2016

    *An asterisk indicates that that candidate also won the national electoral vote in that election.

    Election results

    2012

    U.S. presidential election, Mississippi, 2012
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Democratic Barack Obama/Joe Biden Incumbent 43.8% 562,949 0
         Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMitt Romney/Paul Ryan 55.3% 710,746 6
         Libertarian Gary Johnson/James Gray 0.5% 6,676 0
         Green Jill Stein/Cheri Honkala 0.1% 1,588 0
         Constitution Virgil Goode/Jim Clymer 0.2% 2,609 0
         Reform Barbara Dale Washer/ Cathy L. Toole 0.1% 1,016 0
    Total Votes 1,285,584 6
    Election results via: Mississippi Secretary of State

    2008

    U.S. presidential election, Mississippi, 2008
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Democratic Barack Obama/Joe Biden 43% 554,662 0
         Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn McCain/Sarah Palin 56.2% 724,597 6
         Independent Ralph Nader/Matt Gonzalez 0.3% 4,011 0
         Libertarian Bob Barr/Wayne Allyn Root 0.2% 2,529 0
         Green Cynthia McKinney/Rosa Clemente 0.1% 1,034 0
         Constitution Chuck Baldwin/Darrell Castle 0.2% 2,551 0
         Reform Ted C. Weill/Frank McEnulty 0% 481 0
    Total Votes 1,289,865 6
    Election results via: Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives

    Electoral votes

    See also: Electoral College

    The president of the United States is not elected by popular vote but rather by electors in the Electoral College. In fact, when Americans vote for president, they are actually voting for a slate of electors selected by members of Democratic and Republican state parties or nominated in some other fashion. Under this system, which is laid out in Article 2, Section 1, of the Constitution, each state is allocated one electoral vote for every member of their congressional delegation, meaning one for each member of the U.S. House and one for each of their two Senators.

    Mississippi electors

    In 2016, Mississippi had six electoral votes. Mississippi's share of electoral votes represented 1.1 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs in the general election and 2.2 percent of the 270 votes needed to be elected president.

    "Faithless electors"

    The U.S. Constitution does not dictate how presidential electors are to cast their votes, but, in general, electors are expected to vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state or the candidates of the party that nominated them to serve as electors. Electors who choose not to vote for the winner of the popular vote or the candidates of the party that nominated them are known as "faithless electors." Faithless electors are rare. Between 1900 and 2012, there were only eight known instances of faithless electors.

    Several states have passed laws against faithless electors and require electors to vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state, for the candidate of the party that nominated them to serve as electors, or in accordance with any pledge they may have been required to make at the time of their nomination. In states with these types of laws, faithless electors can be fined or replaced, or their votes can be nullified.[8][9]

    Mississippi was one of 31 states in 2016—including the District of Columbia—with a law seeking to bind the votes of presidential electors.

    Down ballot races

    See also: Mississippi elections, 2016

    Below is a list of down ballot races in Mississippi covered by Ballotpedia in 2016.

    Primary election

    Quick facts

    Democrats:
    • 2016 Democratic winner: Hillary Clinton
    • Poll leader: Hillary Clinton
    • 2008 Democratic winner: Barack Obama
    • Type: Open Primary
    • Delegate allocation: Proportional
    • Pledged delegates at stake: 36
    • Total delegates at stake: 41
    		 Republicans
    • 2016 Republican winner: Donald Trump
    • Poll leader: Donald Trump
    • 2012 Republican winner: Rick Santorum
    • Type: Open Primary
    • Delegate allocation: Proportional
    • Pledged delegates at stake: 40
    • Total delegates at stake: 40

    Democrats

    Hillary Clinton won the Mississippi Democratic primary, beating Bernie Sanders 83 to 17 percent. Clinton won every county in the state. She won Hinds County, Mississippi's most populous county, 84 to 15 percent.[10] Exit polls, a representative sampling of voters as they left their precinct polling stations, show that Clinton performed well with nearly every major demographic in the state. Some groups backed her by large margins. More than 80 percent of female voters, who made up an estimated 61 percent of the Democratic primary electorate in Mississippi, supported Clinton. Eighty-nine percent of African-American voters, who made up roughly 71 percent of the Democratic primary electorate, supported her.[11] In polling from February, Clinton led Sanders by upwards of 40 points, and she received endorsements from more than 50 Mississippi mayors and eleven-term Rep. Bennie Thompson (D), whose district includes the state capital of Jackson.[12] Clinton lost the state in 2008 to Barack Obama 37 to 61 percent.[13]

    Republicans

    Donald Trump won the Mississippi Republican primary with 47 percent of the vote.[10] Ted Cruz came in second place with 36 percent, followed by John Kasich and Marco Rubio in third and fourth place, respectively. Trump carried all but seven of Mississippi's 82 counties. He carried Hinds County 40 to 33 percent over Cruz. Trump won most of Mississippi's major voting groups, including men, women and voters of all educational backgrounds and personal incomes. Cruz, who received an endorsement from Mississippi governor Phil Bryant (R), outperformed Trump with voters between the ages of 30 and 39 and voters who viewed themselves as "very conservative." Sixty percent of Republican primary voters in Mississippi felt that the next president should be "outside the establishment," and 87 percent said they were "angry" or "dissatisfied" with the federal government. Trump won pluralities with both of those groups.[11] Rick Santorum won the Mississippi Republican primary in 2012.[14]

    See also: Trump has another Super Tuesday

    March 8 primaries

    Three other states also held primaries or caucuses on March 8: Hawaii, Idaho and Michigan.

    Results

    Democrats

    Mississippi Democratic Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes Delegates
    Green check mark transparent.pngHillary Clinton 82.5% 187,334 31
    Bernie Sanders 16.6% 37,748 5
    Martin O'Malley 0.3% 672 0
    Roque De La Fuente 0.2% 481 0
    Willie Wilson 0.4% 919 0
    Other 0% 10 0
    Totals 227,164 36
    Source: Mississippi Secretary of State and The New York Times

    Republicans

    Mississippi Republican Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes Delegates
    Jeb Bush 0.4% 1,697 0
    Ben Carson 1.4% 5,626 0
    Chris Christie 0.1% 493 0
    Ted Cruz 36.1% 150,364 15
    Carly Fiorina 0.1% 224 0
    Lindsey Graham 0% 172 0
    Mike Huckabee 0.3% 1,067 0
    John Kasich 8.8% 36,795 0
    George Pataki 0% 135 0
    Rand Paul 0.2% 643 0
    Marco Rubio 5.3% 21,885 0
    Rick Santorum 0.1% 510 0
    Green check mark transparent.pngDonald Trump 47.2% 196,659 25
    Totals 416,270 40
    Source: Mississippi Secretary of State and The New York Times

    Primary candidates

    Democrats[15]

    Hillary Clinton
    Roque De La Fuente


    Martin O'Malley


    Bernie Sanders

    Republicans[16]

    Jeb Bush
    Ben Carson
    Chris Christie
    Ted Cruz


    Carly Fiorina
    Mike Huckabee
    John Kasich
    Rand Paul


    Marco Rubio
    Rick Santorum
    Donald Trump

    Polls

    Democratic primary

    Democratic Party Democratic Party presidential primary polling (Mississippi)
    Poll Hillary Clinton Bernie SandersUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
    Magellan Strategies
    February 29-29, 2016    		65%11%24%+/-4.5471
    Public Policy Polling
    February 14-16, 2016    		60%26%14%+/-4.3514
    Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.


    Republican primary

    Republican Party Republican Party presidential primary polling (Nevada)
    Poll Donald Trump Ted CruzMarco RubioJohn KasichBen CarsonUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
    Magellan Strategies
    February 29-29, 2016    		41%17%16%8%5%13%+/-3.1995
    Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

    Delegates

    Delegate selection

    See also: 2016 presidential nominations: calendar and delegate rules

    Democratic Party

    Democratic Party Logo.png

    Mississippi had 41 delegates at the 2016 Democratic National Convention. Of this total, 36 were pledged delegates. National party rules stipulated how Democratic delegates in all states were allocated. Pledged delegates were allocated to a candidate in proportion to the votes he or she received in a state's primary or caucus. A candidate was eligible to receive a share of the state's pledged delegates if he or she won at least 15 percent of the votes cast in the primary or caucus. There were three types of pledged Democratic delegates: congressional district delegates, at-large delegates, and party leaders and elected officials (PLEOs). Congressional district delegates were allocated proportionally based on the primary or caucus results in a given district. At-large and PLEO delegates were allocated proportionally based on statewide primary results.[17][18]

    Five party leaders and elected officials served as unpledged delegates. These delegates were not required to adhere to the results of a state's primary or caucus.[17][19]

    Mississippi superdelegates

    See also: Superdelegates from Mississippi, 2016 and Superdelegates and the 2016 Democratic National Convention

    Republican Party

    Logo-GOP.png

    Mississippi had 40 delegates at the 2016 Republican National Convention. Of this total, 12 were district-level delegates (three for each of the state's four congressional districts). Mississippi's district-level delegates were allocated on a proportional basis. The first place finisher in a district won two of that district's delegates while the second place finisher received one.[20][21]

    Of the remaining 28 delegates, 25 served at large. At-large delegates were allocated on a proportional basis; a candidate had to win at least 15 percent of the statewide primary vote in order to be eligible to receive any of the state's at-large delegates. In addition, three national party leaders (identified on the chart below as RNC delegates) served as bound delegates to the Republican National Convention.[20][21]

    Republican delegates

    See also: Republican delegates from Mississippi, 2016 and RNC delegate guidelines from Mississippi, 2016

    Presidential voting history

    Mississippi presidential election results (1900-2024)

    • 16 Democratic wins
    • 15 Republican wins
    • 2 other wins
    Year 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960[22] 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024
    Winning Party D D D D D D D D D D D D SR[23] D D D R AI[24] R D R R R R R R R R R R R R

    State profile

    Demographic data for Mississippi
     MississippiU.S.
    Total population:2,989,390316,515,021
    Land area (sq mi):46,9233,531,905
    Race and ethnicity**
    White:59.2%73.6%
    Black/African American:37.4%12.6%
    Asian:1%5.1%
    Native American:0.4%0.8%
    Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
    Two or more:1.2%3%
    Hispanic/Latino:2.9%17.1%
    Education
    High school graduation rate:82.3%86.7%
    College graduation rate:20.7%29.8%
    Income
    Median household income:$39,665$53,889
    Persons below poverty level:27%11.3%
    Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
    Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Mississippi.
    **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

    Presidential voting pattern

    See also: Presidential voting trends in Mississippi

    Mississippi voted Republican in all seven presidential elections between 2000 and 2024.

    Pivot Counties (2016)

    Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012. Collectively, Trump won these Pivot Counties by more than 580,000 votes. Of these 206 counties, two are located in Mississippi, accounting for 0.97 percent of the total pivot counties.[25]

    Pivot Counties (2020)

    In 2020, Ballotpedia re-examined the 206 Pivot Counties to view their voting patterns following that year's presidential election. Ballotpedia defined those won by Trump won as Retained Pivot Counties and those won by Joe Biden (D) as Boomerang Pivot Counties. Nationwide, there were 181 Retained Pivot Counties and 25 Boomerang Pivot Counties. Mississippi had two Retained Pivot Counties, 1.10 of all Retained Pivot Counties.

    More Mississippi coverage on Ballotpedia

    See also

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
    2. ↑ This average includes states like Arizona, New Mexico, and Oklahoma, which did not participate in all 30 presidential elections between 1900 and 2016. It does not include Washington, D.C., which cast votes for president for the first time in 1964, or Alaska and Hawaii, which cast votes for president for the first time in 1960.
    3. ↑ U.S. National Archives and Records Administration, "Electoral Votes, 1940-1948," accessed June 21, 2016
    4. ↑ U.S. National Archives and Records Administration, "Electoral Votes, 1960," accessed June 21, 2016
    5. ↑ University of California Santa Barbara, "The American Presidency Project, Election of 1960," accessed June 22, 2016
    6. ↑ U.S. National Archives and Records Administration, "Electoral Votes, 1964-1972," accessed June 21, 2016
    7. ↑ This number refers to the number of times that the state voted for the winning presidential candidate between 2000 and 2016.
    8. ↑ Archives.gov, "About the Electors," accessed July 28, 2016
    9. ↑ Congressional Research Service, "The Electoral College: How it works in contemporary presidential elections," April 13, 2016
    10. ↑ 10.0 10.1 CNN, "Mississippi," March 8, 2016
    11. ↑ 11.0 11.1 CNN, "Mississippi exit polls," March 8, 2016
    12. ↑ Politico, "Clinton crushes Sanders in Mississippi," March 8, 2016
    13. ↑ CNN, "Mississippi," accessed March 8, 2016
    14. ↑ CNN, "Mississippi," accessed March 8, 2016
    15. ↑ Ballot Access News, "Mississippi Democratic Presidential Primary Will List Four Candidates," January 20, 2016
    16. ↑ The Green Papers, "Mississippi Republican," accessed January 21, 2016
    17. ↑ 17.0 17.1 Democratic National Committee, "2016 Democratic National Convention Delegate/Alternate Allocation," updated February 19, 2016
    18. ↑ The Green Papers, "2016 Democratic Convention," accessed May 7, 2021
    19. ↑ Democratic National Committee's Office of Party Affairs and Delegate Selection, "Unpledged Delegates -- By State," May 27, 2016
    20. ↑ 20.0 20.1 Republican National Committee, "2016 Presidential Nominating Process," accessed October 6, 2015
    21. ↑ 21.0 21.1 CNN.com, "Republican National Convention roll call vote," accessed July 20, 2016 Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "rollcallvote" defined multiple times with different content
    22. ↑ Although he was not on the ballot, Harry F. Byrd (D) won Mississippi's eight unpledged electoral votes in the 1960 election against Richard Nixon (R) and Democratic Party nominee John F. Kennedy.
    23. ↑ States' Rights Democratic Party
    24. ↑ American Independent Party
    25. ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
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