Presidential election in Virginia, 2016

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General election in Virginia
  Date: November 8, 2016
2016 winner: Hillary Clinton (D)
Electoral votes: 13
2012 winner: Barack Obama (D)
Democratic Primary
  Date: March 1, 2016
Winner: Hillary Clinton
Republican Primary
  Date: March 1, 2016
Winner: Donald Trump
Down ballot races in Virginia
  U.S. House
Virginia judicial elections
Virginia local judicial elections
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See also: Presidential battleground states, 2016 and Old Dominion Battleground

Virginia held an election for the president of the United States on November 8, 2016. The Democratic and Republican parties held primary elections for president on March 1, 2016. Virginia was considered a key battleground state in the 2016 general election.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • Hillary Clinton (D) won Virginia in the general election.
  • In 2016, Virginia had 13 electoral votes, which was 2.4 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 4.8 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election.
  • Between 1900 and 2016, Virginia cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 66.67 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Virginia supported Democratic candidates for president more often than Republican candidates, 56.67 to 43.33 percent. The state, however, favored Democrats over Republicans between 2000 and 2016, 60 and 40 percent.
  • Presidential primary elections in Virginia took place on March 1, 2016. Hillary Clinton won the Democratic primary with 64.3 percent of the vote. Donald Trump won the Republican primary with 34.8 percent.

    • General election candidates

    See also: Ballot access for presidential candidates

    The candidate list below is based on an official list on the Virginia Department of Elections website. The candidate names below appear in the order in which they were listed on the official list—not necessarily the order in which they appeared on the ballot in November.

    Presidential candidates on the ballot in Virginia

    ☑ Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (Democratic)
    ☐ Donald Trump/Mike Pence (Republican)
    ☐ Gary Johnson/Bill Weld (Libertarian)
    ☐ Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka (Green)
    ☐ Evan McMullin/Nathan Johnson (Independent)[1]

    Results

    U.S. presidential election, Virginia, 2016
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngHillary Clinton/Tim Kaine 49.7% 1,981,473 13
         Republican Donald Trump/Mike Pence 44.4% 1,769,443 0
         Libertarian Gary Johnson/Bill Weld 3% 118,274 0
         Green Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka 0.7% 27,638 0
         Independent Evan McMullin/Nathan Johnson 1.4% 54,054 0
         - Other/Write-in 0.8% 33,749 0
    Total Votes 3,984,631 13
    Election results via: Federal Election Commission

    Pivot Counties

    See also: Pivot Counties: The counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump from 2008-2016

    Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012, in 34 states.[2] Collectively, Trump won these Pivot Counties by more than 580,000 votes, and had an average margin of victory of 11.45 percent. The political shift in these counties could have a broad impact on elections at every level of government for the next four years.

    Historical election trends

    See also: Presidential election accuracy

    Below is an analysis of Virginia's voting record in presidential elections. The state's accuracy is based on the number of times a state has voted for a winning presidential candidate. The majority of statistical data is from the U.S. National Archives and Records Administration and was compiled, here, by Ballotpedia, unless otherwise noted.

    Presidential election voting record in Virginia, 1900-2016

    Between 1900 and 2016:

    • Virginia participated in 30 presidential elections.
    • Virginia voted for the winning presidential candidate 66.67 percent of the time. The average accuracy of voting for winning presidential candidates for all 50 states in this time frame was 72.31 percent.[3]
    • Virginia voted Democratic 56.67 percent of the time and Republican 43.33 percent of the time.

    Presidential election voting record in Virginia, 2000-2016

    *An asterisk indicates that that candidate also won the national electoral vote in that election.

    Election results

    2012

    Other candidates that appeared on the ballot received less than 0.1% of the vote. Those candidates included: Ross Anderson, Jill Ann Reed, and Sheila Tittle.[5]

    2008

    Other candidates that appeared on the ballot received less than 0.1% of the vote. Those candidates included: Cynthia McKinney, Alan Keyes, Brian Moore, and Jonathan Allen.[6]

    Polling

    Virginia polls (2016)

    Ballotpedia's battleground state polling averages were based on polls that came out over a 20- to 30-day period. For example, an average might have covered all polls that were released for a state between September 1, 2016, and September 30, 2016. They were not weighted. Polling averages were checked and updated daily.

    Ballotpedia Battleground Poll

    See also: Ballotpedia's battleground poll, 2016

    Ballotpedia partnered with Evolving Strategies and surveyed voters across seven battleground states (June 10 – 22) regarding their vote preference. We tested six election scenarios. In one set, we matched Hillary Clinton (D) in a series of two-way contests with Donald Trump (R), Ohio Governor John Kasich (R), and House Speaker Paul Ryan (R). In the second set, we matched these same candidates in a series of three-way contests that also included former governor Gary Johnson. In all seven states, Clinton polled higher than Trump. Comparatively, John Kasich polled ahead of Clinton in five of the seven states, and Paul Ryan polled ahead of Clinton in three states. See the table below for the battleground poll results from Virginia.

    The survey results showed Paul Ryan polling ahead of Hillary Clinton by a small margin (2 percentage points) in Virginia. While the race would be tight for both Ryan and John Kasich (who polled 5 percentage points ahead of Clinton), Donald Trump was seven percentage points behind Clinton in the poll results.

    Ballotpedia's Battleground Polling (Virginia): Head-to-head
    Poll Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Neither or refused Margin of error Sample size
    Clinton vs. Trump (June 10-22, 2016) 45% 38% 17% +/- 3.9 612
    Hillary Clinton John Kasich Neither or refused Margin of error Sample size
    Clinton vs. Kasich (June 10-22, 2016) 40% 45% 15% +/- 3.9 612
    Hillary Clinton Paul Ryan Neither or refused Margin of error Sample size
    Clinton vs. Ryan (June 10-22, 2016) 41% 43% 16% +/- 3.9 612
    Ballotpedia's Battleground Polling (Virginia): Three-way
    Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Neither or refused Margin of error Sample size
    Clinton vs. Trump vs. Johnson (June 10-22, 2016) 43% 35% 11% 11% +/- 3.9 612
    Hillary Clinton John Kasich Gary Johnson Neither or refused Margin of error Sample size
    Clinton vs. Kasich vs. Johnson (June 10-22, 2016) 39% 39% 10% 13% +/- 3.9 612
    Hillary Clinton Paul Ryan Gary Johnson Neither or refused Margin of error Sample size
    Clinton vs. Ryan vs. Johnson (June 10-22, 2016) 40% 40% 10% 11% +/- 3.9 612

    Electoral votes

    See also: Electoral College

    The president of the United States is not elected by popular vote but rather by electors in the Electoral College. In fact, when Americans vote for president, they are actually voting for a slate of electors selected by members of Democratic and Republican state parties or nominated in some other fashion. Under this system, which is laid out in Article 2, Section 1, of the Constitution, each state is allocated one electoral vote for every member of their congressional delegation, meaning one for each member of the U.S. House and one for each of their two Senators.

    Virginia electors

    In 2016, Virginia had 13 electoral votes. Virginia's share of electoral votes represented 2.4 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs in the general election and 4.8 percent of the 270 votes needed to be elected president. Democratic and Republicans electors in Virginia were selected at state party conventions.

    "Faithless electors"

    The U.S. Constitution does not dictate how presidential electors are to cast their votes, but, in general, electors are expected to vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state or the candidates of the party that nominated them to serve as electors. Electors who choose not to vote for the winner of the popular vote or the candidates of the party that nominated them are known as "faithless electors." Faithless electors are rare. Between 1900 and 2012, there were only eight known instances of faithless electors.

    Several states have passed laws against faithless electors and require electors to vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state, for the candidate of the party that nominated them to serve as electors, or in accordance with any pledge they may have been required to make at the time of their nomination. In states with these types of laws, faithless electors can be fined or replaced, or their votes can be nullified.[7][8]

    Virginia was one of 31 states in 2016—including the District of Columbia—with a law seeking to bind the votes of presidential electors.

    State campaign staff

    Prior to the November 8, 2016, election, each campaign put in place paid staff, volunteers, and political operatives in each state in efforts to gain votes and influence voter turnout on election day. The following details some of the key staff for each campaign in Virginia.

    Hillary Clinton

    For Hillary Clinton's campaign, state operations nationwide were overseen by Marlon Marshall, the campaign's director of state campaigns and political engagement. The key staff in Virginia consisted of:

    Hillary for America 2016 Logo.png

    Brian Zuzenak, State director: Zuzenak was first reported to have joined Clinton's campaign in May 2016. At the time of his hiring, he was also the executive director of Common Good VA PAC, Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe's political action committee. Zuzenak previously directed campaigns in Missouri and was the deputy executive director for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
    Keren Dongo, Deputy state director: Dongo has worked in Tim Kaine's (D) office since Kaine was elected to the Senate in 2012. Dongo was also an aide for Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, Sen. Mark Warner, and Rep. Bobby Scott.[9]

    Donald Trump

    For Donald Trump's campaign, state operations nationwide were overseen by Michael Biundo, the campaign's senior political advisor. Thomas Midanek was the Trump campaign's state director in Virginia from July 2016 until early September 2016. After Midanek was transferred, the campaign restructured its Virginia staff to consist of:

    Trump-Pence 2016.svg

    Mark Kevin Lloyd, State director: Lloyd is the chairman of the Lynchburg Tea Party and the chairman of the Virginia Tea Party Federation.[10] During the primary campaign in Virginia, Lloyd was Trump's director of coalitions and field director in the state.[11]


    Down ballot races

    See also: Virginia elections, 2016

    Below is a list of down ballot races in Virginia covered by Ballotpedia in 2016.

    Primary election

    Quick facts

    Democrats:
    • 2016 Democratic winner: Hillary Clinton
    • Poll leader: Hillary Clinton
    • 2008 Democratic winner: Barack Obama
    • Type: Primary
    • Delegate allocation: Proportional
    • Pledged delegates at stake: 95
    • Total delegates at stake: 109
    		 Republicans
    • 2016 Republican winner: Donald Trump
    • Poll leader: Donald Trump
    • 2012 Republican winner: Mitt Romney
    • Type: Primary
    • Delegate allocation: Proportional
    • Pledged delegates at stake: 49
    • Total delegates at stake: 49

    Democrats

    Hillary Clinton won the Virginia Democratic primaries, defeating opponent Bernie Sanders by almost 30 percentage points. Multiple news outlets called the election in her favor shortly after polls closed at 7:00 pm EST.[12] Clinton lost the Virginia Democratic primary in 2008 to Barack Obama. Clinton won nearly all of the counties in the eastern half of the state including those surrounding Washington, D.C. (she won Arlington County 67 to 33 percent). Sanders picked up some of the state's more rural counties in the western half.[13]

    Similar to her victory in South Carolina on February 27, 2016, Clinton received support from numerous major demographics in Virginia. According to CNN exit polling, a representative sampling of voters as they left their precinct polling stations, Clinton outperformed Sanders with men, women, voters 45 years of age or older, voters with educational backgrounds ranging from no high school degree to post-graduates and voters with annual incomes ranging from $30,000 or less to $200,000 or more. Clinton also won 82 percent of African-American voters.

    Sanders, on the other hand, outperformed Clinton with younger voters, first-time voters, white males and voters who identified as independents.[14]

    Voter turnout in Virginia's 2016 Democratic primary election was roughly 200,000 less than in 2008.

    Republicans

    Donald Trump won the Virginia Republican primaries. Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz came in second and third place, respectively. Exit poll data shows that Trump outperformed Rubio with men, older voters, voters without college degrees and voters with incomes below $100,000. Rubio won with women, younger voters, voters with college degrees and voters with incomes higher than $100,000.

    White voters, according to CNN exit poll data, made up 86 percent of Republican primary voters in Virginia on March 1. Trump won 35 percent of white voters. Rubio won 31 percent. Non-white voters made up 14 percent of the electorate. Rubio won 34 percent of non-white voters, while Trump won 30 percent.[14]

    Rubio beat Trump in the counties surrounding Richmond and Washington, D.C. He won Arlington County by almost 50 percent and Fairfax County by 40 percent. Trump received 17 percent in Arlington County.[13]

    2016 primary results

    Democrats

    Virginia Democratic Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes Delegates
    Green check mark transparent.pngHillary Clinton 64.3% 504,741 62
    Bernie Sanders 35.2% 276,370 33
    Martin O'Malley 0.5% 3,930 0
    Totals 785,041 95
    Source: CNN and Virginia Department of Elections

    Republicans

    Virginia Republican Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes Delegates
    Marco Rubio 32% 327,918 16
    Lindsey Graham 0% 444 0
    Ben Carson 5.9% 60,228 3
    Rand Paul 0.3% 2,917 0
    Mike Huckabee 0.1% 1,458 0
    Ted Cruz 16.7% 171,150 8
    Green check mark transparent.pngDonald Trump 34.8% 356,840 17
    Jim Gilmore 0.1% 653 0
    Chris Christie 0.1% 1,102 0
    Jeb Bush 0.4% 3,645 0
    Rick Santorum 0% 399 0
    John Kasich 9.5% 97,784 5
    Carly Fiorina 0.1% 914 0
    Totals 1,025,452 49
    Source: CNN and Virginia Department of Elections

    Candidate list

    Democrats[15]

    Hillary Clinton


    Martin O'Malley


    Bernie Sanders

    Republicans[15]

    Jeb Bush
    Ben Carson
    Chris Christie
    Ted Cruz
    Carly Fiorina


    Jim Gilmore
    Lindsey Graham
    Mike Huckabee
    John Kasich


    Rand Paul
    Marco Rubio
    Rick Santorum
    Donald Trump

    Polls

    Democratic primary

    Democratic Party Democratic Party presidential primary polling (Virginia)
    Poll Hillary Clinton Bernie SandersUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
    CBS News/YouGov
    February 22-26, 2016    		59%39%1%+/-9.2471
    Roanoke College
    February 16-24, 2016    		50%33%17%+/-4.8415
    Monmouth University
    February 22-24, 2016    		60%33%7%+/-5.6302
    Christopher NewPort University
    February 3-14, 2016    		52%40%8%+/-7.3286
    Public Policy Polling
    February 14-16, 2016    		56%34%10%+/-4.4500
    University of Mary Washington
    November 4-9, 2015    		58%32%11%+/-N/A357
    Christopher Newport University
    September 29-October 8, 2015    		40%23%36%+/-5.1407
    Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

    Republican primary

    Republican Party Republican Party presidential primary polling (Virginia)
    Poll Donald Trump Marco RubioTed CruzJohn KasichBen CarsonUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
    CBS News/YouGov
    February 22-26, 2016    		40%27%22%6%4%1%+/-8.6481
    Roanoke College
    February 16-24, 2016    		38%13%15%8%8%19%+/-4.5466
    Monmouth University
    February 22-24, 2016    		41%27%14%7%7%4%+/-4.8421
    Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

    Delegates

    Delegate selection

    See also: 2016 presidential nominations: calendar and delegate rules

    Democratic Party

    Democratic Party Logo.png

    Virginia had 108 delegates at the 2016 Democratic National Convention. Of this total, 95 were pledged delegates. National party rules stipulated how Democratic delegates in all states were allocated. Pledged delegates were allocated to a candidate in proportion to the votes he or she received in a state's primary or caucus. A candidate was eligible to receive a share of the state's pledged delegates if he or she won at least 15 percent of the votes cast in the primary or caucus. There were three types of pledged Democratic delegates: congressional district delegates, at-large delegates, and party leaders and elected officials (PLEOs). Congressional district delegates were allocated proportionally based on the primary or caucus results in a given district. At-large and PLEO delegates were allocated proportionally based on statewide primary results.[16][17]

    Thirteen party leaders and elected officials served as unpledged delegates. These delegates were not required to adhere to the results of a state's primary or caucus.[16][18]

    Virginia superdelegates

    See also: Superdelegates from Virginia, 2016 and Superdelegates and the 2016 Democratic National Convention

    Republican Party

    Logo-GOP.png

    Virginia had 49 delegates at the 2016 Republican National Convention. Of this total, 33 were district-level delegates (three for each of the state's 11 congressional districts). District-level delegates were allocated proportionally in accordance with the statewide vote.[19][20]

    Of the remaining 16 delegates, 13 served at large. At-large delegates were allocated proportionally in accordance with the statewide vote. In addition, three national party leaders (identified on the chart below as RNC delegates) served as bound delegates to the Republican National Convention.[19][20]

    Republican delegates

    See also: Republican delegates from Virginia, 2016 and RNC delegate guidelines from Virginia, 2016

    Presidential voting history

    Virginia presidential election results (1900-2024)

    • 18 Democratic wins
    • 14 Republican wins
    Year 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024
    Winning Party D D D D D D D R D D D D D R R R D R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D

    State profile

    Demographic data for Virginia
     VirginiaU.S.
    Total population:8,367,587316,515,021
    Land area (sq mi):39,4903,531,905
    Race and ethnicity**
    White:69%73.6%
    Black/African American:19.2%12.6%
    Asian:6%5.1%
    Native American:0.3%0.8%
    Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
    Two or more:3.2%3%
    Hispanic/Latino:8.6%17.1%
    Education
    High school graduation rate:88.3%86.7%
    College graduation rate:36.3%29.8%
    Income
    Median household income:$65,015$53,889
    Persons below poverty level:13%11.3%
    Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
    Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Virginia.
    **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

    Presidential voting pattern

    See also: Presidential voting trends in Virginia

    Virginia voted for the Democratic candidate in five out of the seven presidential elections between 2000 and 2024.

    Pivot Counties (2016)

    Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012. Collectively, Trump won these Pivot Counties by more than 580,000 votes. Of these 206 counties, five are located in Virginia, accounting for 2.43 percent of the total pivot counties.[21]

    Pivot Counties (2020)

    In 2020, Ballotpedia re-examined the 206 Pivot Counties to view their voting patterns following that year's presidential election. Ballotpedia defined those won by Trump won as Retained Pivot Counties and those won by Joe Biden (D) as Boomerang Pivot Counties. Nationwide, there were 181 Retained Pivot Counties and 25 Boomerang Pivot Counties. Virginia had five Retained Pivot Counties, 2.76 percent of all Retained Pivot Counties.

    More Virginia coverage on Ballotpedia

    See also

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ On October 6, 2016, Evan McMullin announced Mindy Finn as his official running mate. As of October 10, 2016, Ballotpedia was not aware of any changes to this state's official list of certified presidential candidates.
    2. ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
    3. ↑ This average includes states like Arizona, New Mexico, and Oklahoma, which did not participate in all 30 presidential elections between 1900 and 2016. It does not include Washington, D.C., which cast votes for president for the first time in 1964, or Alaska and Hawaii, which cast votes for president for the first time in 1960.
    4. ↑ This number refers to the number of times that the state voted for the winning presidential candidate between 2000 and 2016.
    5. ↑ U.S. Election Atlas, "2012 Presidential Election Results," accessed December 29, 2014
    6. ↑ U.S. Election Atlas, "2008 Presidential Election Results," accessed December 29, 2014
    7. ↑ Archives.gov, "About the Electors," accessed July 28, 2016
    8. ↑ Congressional Research Service, "The Electoral College: How it works in contemporary presidential elections," April 13, 2016
    9. ↑ The Washington Post, "Clinton hires veteran Virginia staffers for swing state campaign," June 30, 2016
    10. ↑ HarperCollins, "Mark Kevin Lloyd," accessed October 18, 2016
    11. ↑ Richmond Times-Dispatch, "Trump says he's filed 15,000 signatures to qualify for Virginia's primary ballot," November 2, 2015
    12. ↑ Wall Street Journal, "Hillary Clinton Wins Virginia, Georgia; Bernie Sanders Takes Vermont," March 1, 2016
    13. ↑ 13.0 13.1 The New York Times, "Virginia Primary Results," March 2, 2016
    14. ↑ 14.0 14.1 CNN, "Virginia Exit Polls," March 1, 2016
    15. ↑ 15.0 15.1 Virginia Department of Elections, "Presidential Primary Information," December 10, 2015
    16. ↑ 16.0 16.1 Democratic National Committee, "2016 Democratic National Convention Delegate/Alternate Allocation," updated February 19, 2016
    17. ↑ The Green Papers, "2016 Democratic Convention," accessed May 7, 2021
    18. ↑ Democratic National Committee's Office of Party Affairs and Delegate Selection, "Unpledged Delegates -- By State," May 27, 2016
    19. ↑ 19.0 19.1 Republican National Committee, "2016 Presidential Nominating Process," accessed October 6, 2015
    20. ↑ 20.0 20.1 CNN.com, "Republican National Convention roll call vote," accessed July 20, 2016
    21. ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
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