Ohio State Senate elections, 2016
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| 2016 Ohio Senate Elections | |
|---|---|
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| Primary | March 15, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
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A total of 16 seats out of the 33 seats in the Ohio State Senate were up for election in 2016. Republicans gained one seat in the November 2016 general election.
Ohio state senators serve staggered, four-year terms and half of the senate is up for election every two years.
Introduction
Elections for the Ohio State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election was held on March 15, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was December 16, 2015.
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the Ohio State Senate:
| Ohio State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 10 | 9 | |
| Republican Party | 23 | 24 | |
| Total | 33 | 33 | |
Retired incumbents
Six incumbent senators did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents are:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Bill Seitz | Senate District 8 | |
| Keith Faber | Senate District 12 | |
| Jim Hughes | Senate District 16 | |
| Thomas Patton | Senate District 24 | |
| Thomas Sawyer | Senate District 28 | |
| Capri Cafaro | Senate District 32 |
2016 election competitiveness
Ohio sees a dip in electoral competitiveness.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Ohio performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the Ohio State Senate, there were 10 Democratic incumbents and 23 Republican incumbents. No incumbents faced primary challengers in the Democratic Party. There were four incumbents that faced primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- In the House, there were 34 Democratic incumbents and 65 Republican incumbents. Four state representatives faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were six incumbents that faced primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in Ohio can be found below.
List of candidates
General election
| 2016 Ohio Senate general election candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Other | ||
| 2 | Kirk Halliday: 59,882 | Randy Gardner: 118,232 (I) |
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| 4 | John Kinne: 50,580 | Bill Coley: 105,810 (I) |
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| 6 | Albert Griggs: 53,584 | Peggy Lehner: 114,168 (I) |
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| 8 | Mary Rose Lierman: 62,693 | Louis Terhar: 106,215 |
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| 10 | Matthew Kirk: 53,239 | Robert Hackett: 99,477 (I) |
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| 12 | No candidate | Matt Huffman |
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| 14 | Charlie Carlier: 44,014 | Joe Uecker: 112,706 (I) |
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| 16 | Cathy Johnson: 76,077 | Stephanie Kunze: 109,454 |
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| 18 | Wiley Runnestrand: 57,446 | John Eklund: 107,972 (I) |
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| 20 | No candidate | Troy Balderson (I) |
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| 22 | Christopher King: 49,218 | Larry Obhof: 113,666 (I) |
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| 24 | Emily Hagan: 77,383 | Matt Dolan: 107,500 |
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| 26 | No candidate | Dave Burke (I) |
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| 28 | Vernon Sykes: 83,805 |
Jonathan Schulz: 53,117 | |
| 30 | Lou Gentile: 75,450 (I) | Frank Hoagland: 84,747 |
|
| 32 | Sean O'Brien: 78,451 |
Robert Allen: 60,671 | |
Notes:
| |||
Primary election
| 2016 Ohio Senate primary candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Other | ||
| 2 | Kirk Halliday: 25,228 |
Randy Gardner (I): 50,116 |
|
| 4 | John Kinne: 15,070 |
Bill Coley (I): 24,261 Joseph Ebbing: 8,149 Eric Gurr: 6,379 Jeremiah York: 5,158 |
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| 6 | Lu Dale: 19,175 |
Peggy Lehner (I): 40,321 Barbara Temple: 15,873 |
|
| 8 | Mary Rose Lierman: 18,157 |
Louis Terhar: 41,205 |
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| 10 | Michael Gilbert: 6,771 Matthew Kirk: 13,614 |
Robert Hackett (I): 30,253 Brian Walton: 21,839 |
|
| 12 | No candidate | John Adams: 24,789 Matt Huffman: 43,367 |
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| 14 | Charlie Carlier: 15,702 |
Joe Uecker (I): 49,835 |
|
| 16 | Larry Malone: 24,386 |
Stephanie Kunze: 40,547 Aaron Neumann: 11,019 |
|
| 18 | Wiley Runnestrand: 22,509 |
John Eklund (I): 45,822 |
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| 20 | No candidate | Troy Balderson (I): 48,059 |
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| 22 | Christopher King: 18,385 |
Larry Obhof (I): 42,361 Janet Folger Porter: 22,713 |
|
| 24 | Emily Hagan: 26,885 |
Nan Baker: 16,241 Matt Dolan: 24,844 Mike Dovilla: 14,860 |
|
| 26 | No candidate | Dave Burke (I): 47,248 |
|
| 28 | Vernon Sykes: 23,918 |
Jonathan Schulz: 20,203 |
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| 30 | Lou Gentile (I): 31,841 |
Frank Hoagland: 38,771 |
|
| 32 | Sean O'Brien: 25,610 Kristen Rock: 16,002 |
Robert Allen: 16,748 |
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Notes:
| |||
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Ohio State Senate in 2016 was lower than the national average. Out of 16 races in the Ohio State Senate in 2016, 13 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 26.9 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[2]
| Republican candidates in the Ohio State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic candidates in 2016. Republicans won 14 races. In the 11 races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 28.6 percent. Democrats won two races in 2016. In the two races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 17.6 percent. |
| More Republican candidates than Democratic candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. One of the 13 contested races in 2016—7.7 percent—saw a margin of victory that was 10 percent or less. A Republican won the race. |
Ohio State Senate: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 30 R 5.8 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Ohio State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was higher than the national average. Nine incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. All of the incumbents were Republicans. The average margin of victory for the seven winning Ohio State Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 35.5 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
Ohio State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[3] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[3] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 2 17.6 percent 0 N/A 0 0 0.0 percent Republican 14 28.6 percent 9 35.5 percent 2 3 21.4 percent Total 16 26.9 percent 9 35.5 percent 2 3 18.8 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Ohio State Senate districts in 2016.
| Ohio State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 2 | R | 32.8 percent |
| District 4 | R | 35.3 percent |
| District 6 | R | 36.1 percent |
| District 8 | R | 25.8 percent |
| District 10 | R | 30.3 percent |
| District 12 | R | Unopposed |
| District 14 | R | 43.8 percent |
| District 16 | R | 18.0 percent |
| District 18 | R | 30.5 percent |
| District 20 | R | Unopposed |
| District 22 | R | 39.6 percent |
| District 24 | R | 16.3 percent |
| District 26 | R | Unopposed |
| District 28 | D | 22.4 percent |
| District 30 | R | 5.8 percent |
| District 32 | D | 12.8 percent |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Ohio elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Ohio in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| December 16, 2015 | Ballot access | Deadline for partisan primary candidates to file declarations of candidacy | |
| January 4, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for write-in primary candidates to file declarations of intent | |
| January 29, 2016 | Campaign finance | 2015 annual report due | |
| March 3, 2016 | Campaign finance | Pre-primary report due | |
| March 14, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for independent candidates to file nominating petitions | |
| March 15, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| April 22, 2016 | Campaign finance | Post-primary report due | |
| July 29, 2016 | Campaign finance | Semiannual report due | |
| August 29, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for write-in general election candidates to file declarations of intent | |
| October 27, 2016 | Campaign finance | Pre-general report due | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| December 16, 2016 | Campaign finance | Post-general report due | |
| January 31, 2017 | Campaign finance | 2016 annual report due | |
| Source: Ohio Secretary of State, "2016 Ohio Elections Calendar," accessed June 12, 2015 Ohio Secretary of State, "2016 Ohio Campaign Finance Reporting Calendar," accessed October 28, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 3 of the 16 districts that were up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of three Republicans were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 13 (81.2%) of the 16 districts up for election.
Primary challenges
Four incumbents, all Republicans, faced primary competition on March 15. Six incumbents did not seek re-election and another 6 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition.
Retired incumbents
Six incumbent senators did not run for re-election, while 10 ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents, four Republicans and two Democrats, can be found above.
Impact of term limits
- See also: State legislatures with term limits
The Ohio State Senate has been a term-limited state senate since Ohio voters approved Ballot Issue 4, an initiated constitutional amendment, in 1992. This amendment became part of Section 2 of Article II of the Ohio Constitution and limits the amount of time that an Ohio State Senator can stay in office to two four-year terms, saying, "No person shall hold the office of State Senator for a period longer than two successive terms of four years." Senators can run for office again after being out-of-office for at least a four-year period.
There are 33 Ohio State Senators. In 2016, three of them who were current members, two Democrats and one Republican, were ineligible to run for the senate again in November.
The state senators who were term-limited in 2016 were:
Democrats (2):
Republicans (1):
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Ohio's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Ohio General Assembly 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 23.3% | 25.8% | 81.0% | 43.4 | 7 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in Ohio in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[4]
| Ohio State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 51 | $11,632,237 |
| 2012 | 38 | $13,451,018 |
| 2010 | 57 | $10,863,275 |
| 2008 | 44 | $10,964,869 |
| 2006 | 48 | $12,603,028 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state senates. The average contributions raised by state senate candidates in 2014 was $148,144. Ohio, at $228,083 per candidate, is ranked nine of 42 for state senate chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s senate candidates in 2014.[4][5]
Qualifications
Article 2, Section 3 of the Ohio Constitution states: "Senators and representatives shall have resided in their respective districts one year next preceding their election, unless they shall have been absent on the public business of the United States, or of this state."
Article 2, Section 5 of the Ohio Constitution states: "No person hereafter convicted of an embezzlement of the public funds, shall hold any office in this state; nor shall any person, holding public money for disbursement, or otherwise, have a seat in the General Assembly, until he shall have accounted for, and paid such money into the treasury."
See also
External links
- Ohio Secretary of State - Primary candidate list
- Ohio Secretary of State - Primary election results
- Ohio Secretary of State - General election candidate list
Footnotes
- ↑ Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory of less than 5 percent are considered highly competitive. Districts that have a margin of victory from 5 to 10 percent are considered mildly competitive.
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Ohio," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
