New Hampshire State Senate elections, 2016
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| 2016 New Hampshire Senate Elections | |
|---|---|
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| Primary | September 13, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
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| 2016 Elections | |
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All 24 seats in the New Hampshire State Senate were up for election in 2016. No changes occurred to the partisan balance of the chamber.[1]
A Ballotpedia analysis identified the New Hampshire State Senate as one of 20 battleground chambers in the November 2016 election. These were the chambers where one party might have, realistically, toppled the other party from its position of majority control.
This election was one of Ballotpedia's top 10 state-level races in 2016.
Click here to read the full list.
Introduction
Elections for the New Hampshire State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election took place on September 13, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was June 10, 2016.
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the New Hampshire State Senate:
| New Hampshire State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 10 | 10 | |
| Republican Party | 13 | 14 | |
| Vacancy | 1 | 0 | |
| Total | 24 | 24 | |
Context of the 2016 elections
Former Senate President Peter Bragdon (R) said that the state Senate does not have massive partisan swings like in the state House because 2010 redistricting made the state Senate's "Democratic and Republican-leaning districts even more partisan."[3] Bragdon said, "The majority has to respect the minority for things to happen in the Senate and that has always been the case. I think Republicans have kept control in part because they don't grind down the Democrats like can happen in the House."[3] Charles Arlinghaus, the president of the conservative Josiah Bartlett Center for Public Policy and a former GOP political operative, said on the New Hampshire State Senate that, "I see the Senate as wide open this fall. The Democrats could end up with anywhere between nine and 14 members."[3]
Democrats had only held the state Senate from 1998-2002, and from 2006-2010 since 1912. During both periods of time, Democrats were backed by two popular governors who won election by large margins.[3] Seven Senate incumbents—five Republicans and two Democrats—did not seek re-election in 2016. There was also one vacant seat that was previously held by a Republican. Gene Martin, executive director of the New Hampshire Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, said on the Democrats' chances of flipping the state Senate that, "There’s a lot of these open seats and there’s a lot of vulnerable incumbents. I think we have a great shot at picking up a majority."[4]
Ross Berry, executive director for the New Hampshire Republican State Committee, admitted that the presidential election makes open seats more vulnerable to partisan change but believed all talk about a legislature partisan flip was premature. Berry said, "Of course (the number of open seats) is a factor: the candidate in the seat already has built in name recognition. (But) this is New Hampshire, where independents dominate the scene; our candidates have to earn the votes on their own and show voters why they’re better than others."[4]
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) named Senate District 12 and Senate District 23 in their "2016 Essential Races."[5][6]
As of September 2016, the Senate Republican Majority PAC had almost $250,000 in the bank. The Senate Democratic Caucus had been one of the state's leading PACs in fundraising over the past two decades.[3]
Presidential election
The presidential election was expected to play some role in down-ballot races in New Hampshire, with the most vulnerable races being the state Senate and state House races with open seats. Joseph Bafumi, associate professor of government at Dartmouth College, said on open seats that, "Those are the seats that are most likely to change hands from one party to the other and, when they do change hands, they tend to go in the direction of the party that is doing best nationally."[4]
Senate Democratic Leader Jeff Woodburn believed that Democrats could overcome a party registration deficit with a Hillary Clinton (D) win. Dante Scala, chair of the political science department at the University of New Hampshire, wondered if a Donald Trump (R) defeat could propel Democrats to a state Senate majority. Scala said, "What will be interesting to see is which GOPers can keep their heads above water if Trump doesn't come back and loses top of ticket by 10."[3] Conservative Charles Arlinghaus did not believe that this year's presidential election would have a large impact on down-ballot elections. Arlinghaus said, "I can see people making this presidential choice independently. Ideology does not win a state Senate seat either. These races are all about communication and hard work; the candidates who do those two things well, they'll be celebrating in November."[3]
Retired incumbents
Seven incumbent senators did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Jeanie Forrester | Senate District 2 | |
| David Pierce | Senate District 5 | |
| Sam Cataldo | Senate District 6 | |
| Molly Kelly | Senate District 10 | |
| David Boutin | Senate District 16 | |
| Russell Prescott | Senate District 23 | |
| Nancy Stiles | Senate District 24 |
Note: District 8 was vacant. It was last represented by Jerry Little (R).
Races we watched
Ballotpedia identified five notable New Hampshire state legislative races in 2016, all five of which were state Senate contests.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable New Hampshire races »
General election contests
- A Democratic candidate and a Republican candidate competed for the open seat vacated by a Republican incumbent.
- ☐ Charlie Chandler ☑ Bob Giuda
- A Democratic candidate and a Republican candidate competed for the open seat vacated by a Republican incumbent.
- ☐ Joe Casey ☑ James Gray
- A Democratic candidate and a Republican candidate competed for the open seat vacated by a Republican incumbent.
- ☐ John Garvey ☑ Ruth Ward
- A Democratic candidate challenged the Republican incumbent for this seat.
- ☐ Peggy Gilmour ☑ Kevin Avard (Inc.)
- A Democratic candidate and a Republican candidate competed for the open seat vacated by a Republican incumbent.
- ☐ Alexis Simpson ☑ William Gannon
List of candidates
General election
| 2016 New Hampshire Senate candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Other | ||
| 1 | Jeff Woodburn: 13,926 (I) |
Dolly McPhaul: 11,590 | |
| 2 | Charlie Chandler: 13,244 | Bob Giuda: 15,546 |
|
| 3 | John White: 11,111 | Jeb Bradley: 20,091 (I) |
|
| 4 | David Watters: 15,144 (I) |
Bill O'Connor: 12,283 | |
| 5 | Martha Hennessey: 18,809 |
Marie Lozito: 9,998 | |
| 6 | Joe Casey: 11,793 | James Gray: 14,481 |
|
| 7 | Andrew Hosmer: 13,863 (I) | Harold F. French: 13,880 |
|
| 8 | John Garvey: 14,289 | Ruth Ward: 16,150 |
|
| 9 | Lee Nyquist: 14,727 | Andy Sanborn: 17,073 (I) |
|
| 10 | Jay Kahn: 17,713 |
Chester Lapointe: 10,273 | |
| 11 | Roger Tilton: 13,227 | Gary Daniels: 17,235 (I) |
|
| 12 | Peggy Gilmour: 15,120 | Kevin Avard: 15,942 (I) |
|
| 13 | Bette Lasky: 14,619 (I) |
Joan Donahue: 9,897 | |
| 14 | Tammy Siekmann: 9,989 | Sharon Carson: 17,793 (I) |
|
| 15 | Dan Feltes: 17,658 (I) |
Jeff Newman: 10,913 | |
| 16 | Scott McGilvray: 15,118 |
Joe Duarte: 14,503 | |
| 17 | Nancy R.B. Fraher: 11,522 | John Reagan: 18,252 (I) |
|
| 18 | Donna Soucy: 13,299 (I) |
Ross W. Terrio: 10,869 | |
| 19 | Kristi St. Laurent: 11,825 | Regina Birdsell: 16,505 (I) |
|
| 20 | Lou D'Allesandro: 13,187 (I) |
Carla Gericke: 8,695 | |
| 21 | Martha Fuller Clark: 20,883 (I) |
Peter Macdonald: 10,607 | |
| 22 | Richard O'Shaughnessy: 11,270 | Chuck Morse: 18,717 (I) |
|
| 23 | Alexis Simpson: 13,343 | William Gannon: 17,337 |
|
| 24 | Tom Sherman: 16,373 | Dan Innis: 17,844 |
|
| Notes | • An (I) denotes an incumbent. | ||
| • Candidate lists can change frequently throughout an election season. Ballotpedia staff update this list monthly. To suggest changes, click here to email our State Legislature Project. | |||
Primary election
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the New Hampshire State Senate in 2016 was lower than the national average. Out of 24 races in the New Hampshire State Senate in 2016, 24 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 15.4 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[7]
| Democratic candidates in the New Hampshire State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Republican candidates in 2016. Democrats won 10 races. In the 10 races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 18.5 percent. Republicans won 14 races in 2016. In the 14 races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 13.3 percent. |
| More Republican candidates than Democratic candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. Eight of the 24 contested races in 2016—33.3 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Four races saw margins of victory that were 5 percent or less. Republicans won six races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less. |
New Hampshire State Senate: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 1 D 9.2 percent District 2 R 8.0 percent District 7 R 0.1 percent District 8 R 6.1 percent District 9 R 7.4 percent District 12 R 2.6 percent District 16 D 2.1 percent District 24 R 4.3 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the New Hampshire State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was lower than the national average. 15 incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the 15 winning New Hampshire State Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 18 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Republican incumbents in the New Hampshire State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic incumbents. Eight Republican incumbents won re-election. In the eight races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 18 percent. Seven Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the seven races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 18 percent. |
New Hampshire State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[8] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[8] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 10 18.5 percent 7 18.0 percent 0 0 N/A Republican 14 13.3 percent 8 18.0 percent 0 0 N/A Total 24 15.4 percent 15 18.0 percent 0 0 N/A
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in New Hampshire State Senate districts in 2016.
| New Hampshire State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1 | D | 9.2 percent |
| District 2 | R | 8.0 percent |
| District 3 | R | 28.8 percent |
| District 4 | D | 10.4 percent |
| District 5 | D | 30.6 percent |
| District 6 | R | 10.2 percent |
| District 7 | R | 0.1 percent |
| District 8 | R | 6.1 percent |
| District 9 | R | 7.4 percent |
| District 10 | D | 26.6 percent |
| District 11 | R | 13.2 percent |
| District 12 | R | 2.7 percent |
| District 13 | D | 19.3 percent |
| District 14 | R | 28.1 percent |
| District 15 | D | 23.6 percent |
| District 16 | D | 2.1 percent |
| District 17 | R | 22.6 percent |
| District 18 | D | 10.1 percent |
| District 19 | R | 16.5 percent |
| District 20 | D | 20.5 percent |
| District 21 | D | 32.6 percent |
| District 22 | R | 24.8 percent |
| District 23 | R | 13.0 percent |
| District 24 | R | 4.3 percent |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: New Hampshire elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in New Hampshire in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| June 1, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing period opens for all candidates | |
| June 10, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing period closes for primary election | |
| August 10, 2016 | Ballot access | Nomination papers for independent candidates and political organizations must be filed with supervisors of the checklist for certification | |
| August 24, 2016 | Campaign finance | First primary election campaign finance report due | |
| August 31, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for supervisors of the checklist to certify nomination papers | |
| September 7, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for independent candidates and political organizations to file nomination papers with the secretary of state | |
| September 7, 2016 | Campaign finance | Second primary election campaign finance report due | |
| September 13, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| September 21, 2016 | Campaign finance | Last primary election campaign finance report due | |
| October 19, 2016 | Campaign finance | First general election campaign finance report due | |
| November 2, 2016 | Campaign finance | Second general election campaign finance report due | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| November 16, 2016 | Campaign finance | Last general election campaign finance report due | |
| Source: New Hampshire Secretary of State, "Political Calendar 2016-2017," accessed October 28, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unpposed by a major party
All 24 seats up for election in 2016 were opposed by two major party candidates in the general election.
Primary challenges
One incumbent faced primary competition on September 13. Seven incumbents did not seek re-election, one seat was vacant, and another 15 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition.
Retired incumbents
Seven incumbents did not run for re-election, while 16 (66.6 percent) ran for re-election. One seat was also vacant. A list of those retiring incumbents, two Democrats and five Republicans, can be found above.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details New Hampshire's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| New Hampshire General Court 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 28.1% | 32.1% | 80.0% | 46.7 | 6 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in New Hampshire in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[9]
| New Hampshire State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 62 | $3,163,090 |
| 2012 | 61 | $2,524,335 |
| 2010 | 54 | $2,481,909 |
| 2008 | 54 | $2,616,434 |
| 2006 | 52 | $2,675,983 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state senates. The average contributions raised by state senate candidates in 2014 was $148,144. New Hampshire, at $51,018 per candidate, is ranked 32 of 42 for state senate chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s senate candidates in 2014.[9][10]
Qualifications
To be eligible to serve in the New Hampshire Senate, a candidate must be:[11]
- At least thirty years of age
- A resident of the state for seven years immediately preceding the election
- An inhabitant of the district for which they are chosen
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Republicans reclaimed a single seat left vacant prior to the election.
- ↑ Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory of less than 5 percent are considered highly competitive. Districts that have a margin of victory from 5 to 10 percent are considered mildly competitive.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 New Hampshire Union Leader, "state Senate: GOP fortress, or could it be overtaken?" accessed September 8, 2016
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 SentinelSource.com, "Vacancies, contested races leave NH Senate makeup in malleable state," accessed September 8, 2016
- ↑ Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC Expands List of 2016 Essential Races," accessed October 7, 2016
- ↑ Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC ANNOUNCES 2016 ESSENTIAL RACES," accessed October 7, 2016
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 8.0 8.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 9.0 9.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in New Hampshire," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
- ↑ Qualifications to serve in the New Hampshire Senate (Pg. 18) (dead link)
