2016 Presidential battleground state: North Carolina
 Date: November 8, 2016 |
Winner: Donald Trump (R) Hillary Clinton (D) • Jill Stein (G) • Gary Johnson (L) • Vice presidential candidates |
Important dates • Nominating process • Ballotpedia's 2016 Battleground Poll • Polls • Debates • Presidential election by state • Ratings and scorecards |
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This article is about the 2016 presidential election in North Carolina, a key battleground state. For Ballotpedia's full coverage of presidential battleground states in the 2016 presidential election, click here.
2016 Battleground states
In 2016, 12 states and two congressional districts were key to deciding the outcome of the presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.[1] In electoral votes, that came to 159, more than half of the 270 votes needed to win an electoral college majority and become president. Throughout 2016, polling was often tight in these states and districts, and their voting histories made their outcomes difficult to predict. For these reasons, we referred to them as "battlegrounds."
Why did these states have so much sway in the election?
The reason these states and two districts had so much sway in the 2016 presidential election was largely because most of the electoral college map was already set in place before any votes for president were cast, but the battleground states were still up for grabs. Clinton, for example, began the general election with an almost guaranteed 200 electoral votes from 16 states and Washington, D.C. That's 74 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Trump began with an almost guaranteed 179 electoral votes—66 percent of 270—from 22 states. We knew this because of these states' past election results, demographic trends, and polling data. What this means is that 38 states and Washington, D.C.—a total of 379 electoral votes—were not competitive in 2016. But the battleground states were, and there were more than enough electoral votes between them to get either candidate to the White House.
Paths to victory
Clinton needed slightly fewer of these battleground states' electoral votes than Trump. To win, she needed only 70 of the 159 electoral votes in the battlegrounds, while Trump needed 91. Those 21 electoral votes that separated Clinton and Trump might not sound all that significant, but they were. Ballotpedia broke down all the different combinations of battleground states that could get Clinton and Trump to 270 electoral votes or higher. We found that Clinton had almost twice as many paths to victory as Trump, at 10,581 different combinations to 5,572, respectively. The 2016 battleground states are highlighted on the map below in grey. Maine and Nebraska are yellow because their second congressional districts were battlegrounds.[1] States in blue and red are ones that were generally considered safe for Clinton and Trump, respectively.
North Carolina
Electoral votes
- In 2016, North Carolina had 15 electoral votes, which was 2.7 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 5.5 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election.
Results
| U.S. presidential election, North Carolina, 2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | Electoral votes | |
| Democratic | Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine | 46.2% | 2,189,316 | 0 | |
| Republican |  Donald Trump/Mike Pence |
49.8% | 2,362,631 | 15 | |
| Libertarian | Gary Johnson/Bill Weld | 2.7% | 130,126 | 0 | |
| - | Write-in votes | 1.3% | 59,491 | 0 | |
| Total Votes | 4,741,564 | 15 | |||
| Election results via: North Carolina State Board of Elections | |||||
2016 Polling
Ballotpedia's battleground state polling averages were based on polls that came out over a 20- to 30-day period. For example, an average might have covered all polls that were released for a state between September 1, 2016, and September 30, 2016. They were not weighted. Polling averages were checked and updated daily.
State forecast
Various organizations assign ratings to states in election years to assess how they think the state will award its electoral votes. To do this type of analysis, these organizations rely on previous electoral results, demographic changes, polling data, mathematical formulas, and numerous other metrics. Below we have gathered ratings for North Carolina from four organizations: The New York Times, 538.com, The Cook Political Report, and The University of Virginia's Center for Politics. The ratings below date to November 8, 2016.
- NYT: 64 percent chance Democratic
- 538: 56 percent chance Republican
- Cook: Tossup
- UV: Lean Democratic
Voting history
1900-2012
In presidential elections between 1900 and 2012:
- North Carolina voted Democratic 62.07 percent of the time.
- North Carolina voted Republican 37.93 percent of the time.
2000-2012
- 2000 state winner: George W. Bush (R)
- 2004 state winner: George W. Bush (R)
- 2008 state winner: Barack Obama (D)
- 2012 state winner: Mitt Romney (R)
2012
| U.S. presidential election, North Carolina, 2012 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | Electoral votes | |
| Republican | Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan |
50.4% | 2,270,395 | 15 | |
| Democratic | Barack Obama/Joe Biden Incumbent | 48.4% | 2,178,391 | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Gary Johnson/Jim Gray | 1% | 44,515 | 0 | |
| N/A | Write-ins | 0.3% | 11,537 | 0 | |
| Total Votes | 4,504,838 | 15 | |||
| Election results via: U.S. Election Atlas | |||||
Other candidates that appeared on the ballot received less than 0.1% of the vote. Those candidates included: Virgil Goode.[2]
2008
| U.S. presidential election, North Carolina, 2008 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | Electoral votes | |
| Democratic | Barack Obama/Joe Biden |
49.7% | 2,142,651 | 15 | |
| Republican | John McCain/Sarah Palin | 49.4% | 2,128,474 | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Bob Barr/Wayne Allyn Root | 0.6% | 25,722 | 0 | |
| N/A | Write-ins | 0.3% | 12,292 | 0 | |
| Total Votes | 4,309,139 | 15 | |||
| Election results via: U.S. Election Atlas | |||||
Other candidates that appeared on the ballot received less than 0.1% of the vote. Those candidates included: Ralph Nader, Cynthia McKinney, and Brian Moore.[3]
Campaign offices
State campaign offices are key components of presidential campaigns. They help bring the national operation down to the local level by helping register voters, identifying potential supporters, distributing campaign materials, and "localizing" the national campaign's messaging. On August 30, 2016, PBS released a study documenting the number of state campaign offices of the Clinton and Trump campaigns in battleground states throughout the country. The information was current as of August 29, 2016.[4]
- Clinton campaign offices in North Carolina: 30
- Trump campaign offices in North Carolina: Unknown
See also
- Presidential battleground states, 2016
- U.S. Senate battlegrounds, 2016
- U.S. House battlegrounds, 2016
- State legislative battleground chambers, 2016
- Ballotpedia's battleground poll, 2016
Footnotes
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 Maine and Nebraska allocate their electoral votes proportionally. They are the only two states that do this.
- ↑ U.S. Election Atlas, "2012 Presidential Election Results," accessed December 29, 2014
- ↑ U.S. Election Atlas, "2008 Presidential Election Results," accessed December 29, 2014
- ↑ PBS, "The Trump campaign has a ground-game problem," August 30, 2016
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