Michigan's 11th Congressional District election, 2020

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2022
2018
Michigan's 11th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: May 8, 2020
Primary: August 4, 2020
General: November 3, 2020

Pre-election incumbent:
Haley Stevens (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Michigan
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Lean Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Michigan's 11th Congressional District
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Michigan elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

Voters in Michigan elected one member to the 11th Congressional District in the general election on November 3, 2020.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
May 8, 2020
August 4, 2020
November 3, 2020


Incumbent Haley Stevens (D) ran for re-election. She was first elected in 2018 following the retirement of David Trott (R). Stevens faced and defeated Lena Epstein (R) in the general election, receiving 52 percent of the vote to Epstein's 45 percent.

The 11th District was one of 31 U.S. House districts that Donald Trump (R) won in the 2016 presidential election and a Democratic candidate won in the 2018 midterm elections. During the presidential election, Trump received 50 percent of the vote to Hillary Clinton's (D) 45 percent in the 11th District.[1]

Michigan's 11th Congressional District is located in the southeastern region of the lower peninsula of Michigan and includes portions of Oakland and Wayne counties.[2]

This race was one of 89 congressional races that were decided by 10 percent or less in 2020.


Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Michigan's 11th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 51.6 50.2
Republican candidate Republican Party 47.1 47.8
Difference 4.5 2.4

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Michigan modified its absentee/mail-in voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Absentee ballot applications were sent to all registered voters in the general election.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Michigan District 11

Incumbent Haley Stevens defeated Eric Esshaki, Leonard Schwartz, and Frank Acosta in the general election for U.S. House Michigan District 11 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Haley Stevens
Haley Stevens (D) Candidate Connection
 
50.2
 
226,128
Image of Eric Esshaki
Eric Esshaki (R) Candidate Connection
 
47.8
 
215,405
Image of Leonard Schwartz
Leonard Schwartz (L)
 
2.0
 
8,936
Image of Frank Acosta
Frank Acosta (R) (Write-in) Candidate Connection
 
0.0
 
4

Total votes: 450,473
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Michigan District 11

Incumbent Haley Stevens advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Michigan District 11 on August 4, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Haley Stevens
Haley Stevens Candidate Connection
 
100.0
 
105,251

Total votes: 105,251
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Michigan District 11

The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. House Michigan District 11 on August 4, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Eric Esshaki
Eric Esshaki Candidate Connection
 
31.0
 
26,991
Image of Carmelita Greco
Carmelita Greco Candidate Connection
 
22.9
 
19,869
Image of Kerry Bentivolio
Kerry Bentivolio Candidate Connection
 
21.6
 
18,794
Image of Frank Acosta
Frank Acosta Candidate Connection
 
12.7
 
11,030
Image of Whittney Williams
Whittney Williams
 
11.8
 
10,251
Eric Sandberg (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
5

Total votes: 86,940
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Libertarian convention

Libertarian convention for U.S. House Michigan District 11

Leonard Schwartz advanced from the Libertarian convention for U.S. House Michigan District 11 on July 18, 2020.

Candidate
Image of Leonard Schwartz
Leonard Schwartz (L)

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Twelve of 83 Michigan counties—14 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Bay County, Michigan 12.55% 5.56% 15.31%
Calhoun County, Michigan 12.46% 1.60% 9.36%
Eaton County, Michigan 4.72% 3.13% 8.40%
Gogebic County, Michigan 14.80% 8.10% 17.27%
Isabella County, Michigan 3.66% 9.28% 19.26%
Lake County, Michigan 22.77% 5.01% 12.28%
Macomb County, Michigan 11.53% 3.99% 8.62%
Manistee County, Michigan 15.29% 5.93% 13.26%
Monroe County, Michigan 21.97% 0.98% 4.35%
Saginaw County, Michigan 1.13% 11.89% 17.34%
Shiawassee County, Michigan 19.59% 3.67% 8.59%
Van Buren County, Michigan 13.92% 0.45% 8.78%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Michigan with 47.5 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.3 percent. In presidential elections between 1836 and 2016, Michigan voted Republican 60.8 percent of the time and Democratic 34.7 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Michigan voted Democratic four out of the five elections.[3]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Michigan. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[4][5]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 53 out of 110 state House districts in Michigan with an average margin of victory of 37.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 43 out of 110 state House districts in Michigan with an average margin of victory of 39.3 points. Clinton won four districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 57 out of 110 state House districts in Michigan with an average margin of victory of 12.4 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 67 out of 110 state House districts in Michigan with an average margin of victory of 21.2 points. Trump won eight districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+4, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 4 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Michigan's 11th Congressional District the 203rd most Republican nationally.[6]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.99. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.99 points toward that party.[7]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[8] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[9] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Haley Stevens Democratic Party $5,884,929 $5,815,453 $84,994 As of December 31, 2020
Frank Acosta Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Eric Esshaki Republican Party $1,406,412 $1,399,309 $7,104 As of December 31, 2020
Leonard Schwartz Libertarian Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[10]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[11][12][13]

Race ratings: Michigan's 11th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

District represented by a Democrat in 2020 and won by Donald Trump in 2016

See also: U.S. House districts represented by a Democrat in 2020 and won by Donald Trump in 2016

This district was one of 30 Democratic-held U.S. House districts up in 2020 that Donald Trump (R) won in the 2016 presidential election. Most were expected to be among the House's most competitive elections in 2020.


2020 Democratic-held U.S. House districts won by Donald Trump in 2016
District Incumbent Ran in 2020? 2018 congressional margin 2016 presidential margin 2012 presidential margin
Arizona's 1st Democratic Party Tom O'Halleran Yes Democrats+7.7 Trump+1.1 Romney+2.5
Georgia's 6th Democratic Party Lucy McBath Yes Democrats+1.0 Trump+1.5 Romney+23.3
Illinois' 14th Democratic Party Lauren Underwood Yes Democrats+5.0 Trump+3.9 Romney+10
Illinois' 17th Democratic Party Cheri Bustos Yes Democrats+24.2 Trump+0.7 Obama+17
Iowa's 1st Democratic Party Abby Finkenauer Yes Democrats+5.1 Trump+3.5 Obama+13.7
Iowa's 2nd Democratic Party Dave Loebsack Retired Democrats+5.2 Trump+4.1 Obama+13.1
Iowa's 3rd Democratic Party Cindy Axne Yes Democrats+2.2 Trump+3.5 Obama+4.2
Maine's 2nd Democratic Party Jared Golden Yes Democrats+1.3 Trump+10.3 Obama+8.6
Michigan's 8th Democratic Party Elissa Slotkin Yes Democrats+3.8 Trump+6.7 Romney+3.1
Michigan's 11th Democratic Party Haley Stevens Yes Democrats+6.7 Trump+4.4 Romney+5.4
Minnesota's 2nd Democratic Party Angie Craig Yes Democrats+5.5 Trump+1.2 Obama+0.1
Minnesota's 7th Democratic Party Collin Peterson Yes Democrats+4.3 Trump+30.8 Romney+9.8
Nevada's 3rd Democratic Party Susie Lee Yes Democrats+9.1 Trump+1.0 Obama+0.8
New Hampshire's 1st Democratic Party Chris Pappas Yes Democrats+8.6 Trump+1.6 Obama+1.6
New Jersey's 3rd Democratic Party Andrew Kim Yes Democrats+1.3 Trump+6.2 Obama+4.6
New Jersey's 5th Democratic Party Josh Gottheimer Yes Democrats+13.7 Trump+1.1 Romney+3.0
New Jersey's 11th Democratic Party Mikie Sherrill Yes Democrats+14.6 Trump+0.9 Romney+5.8
New Mexico's 2nd Democratic Party Xochitl Torres Small Yes Democrats+1.9 Trump+10.2 Romney+6.8
New York's 11th Democratic Party Max Rose Yes Democrats+6.5 Trump+9.8 Obama+4.3
New York's 18th Democratic Party Sean Maloney Yes Democrats+10.9 Trump+1.9 Obama+4.3
New York's 19th Democratic Party Antonio Delgado Yes Democrats+5.2 Trump+6.8 Obama+6.2
New York's 22nd Democratic Party Anthony Brindisi Yes Democrats+1.8 Trump+15.5 Romney+0.4
Oklahoma's 5th Democratic Party Kendra Horn Yes Democrats+1.4 Trump+13.4 Romney+18.4
Pennsylvania's 8th Democratic Party Matt Cartwright Yes Democrats+9.3 Trump+9.6 Obama+11.9
Pennsylvania's 17th Democratic Party Conor Lamb Yes Democrats+12.5 Trump+2.6 Romney+4.5
South Carolina's 1st Democratic Party Joe Cunningham Yes Democrats+1.4 Trump+13.1 Romney+18.1
Utah's 4th Democratic Party Ben McAdams Yes Democrats+0.3 Trump+6.7 Romney+37.0
Virginia's 2nd Democratic Party Elaine Luria Yes Democrats+2.2 Trump+3.4 Romney+2.3
Virginia's 7th Democratic Party Abigail Spanberger Yes Democrats+1.9 Trump+6.5 Romney+10.5
Wisconsin's 3rd Democratic Party Ron Kind Yes Democrats+19.3 Trump+4.5 Obama+11
Source: Sabato's Crystal Ball and Daily Kos


Click here to see the five U.S. House districts represented by a Republican in 2020 and won by Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 11th Congressional District candidates in Michigan in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Michigan, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Michigan 11th Congressional District Major party 1,000 Fixed number N/A N/A 5/8/2020 Source
Michigan 11th Congressional District Qualified party 1,000 Fixed number N/A N/A 5/8/2020 Source
Michigan 11th Congressional District Unaffiliated 3,000 Fixed number N/A N/A 7/16/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: Michigan's 11th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Michigan District 11

Haley Stevens defeated Lena Epstein, Leonard Schwartz, and Cooper Nye in the general election for U.S. House Michigan District 11 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Haley Stevens
Haley Stevens (D)
 
51.8
 
181,912
Image of Lena Epstein
Lena Epstein (R)
 
45.2
 
158,463
Image of Leonard Schwartz
Leonard Schwartz (L) Candidate Connection
 
1.7
 
5,799
Image of Cooper Nye
Cooper Nye (Independent) Candidate Connection
 
1.3
 
4,727

Total votes: 350,901
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Michigan District 11

Haley Stevens defeated Tim Greimel, Suneel Gupta, Fayrouz Saad, and Nancy Skinner in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Michigan District 11 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Haley Stevens
Haley Stevens
 
27.0
 
24,309
Image of Tim Greimel
Tim Greimel
 
21.8
 
19,673
Image of Suneel Gupta
Suneel Gupta
 
21.4
 
19,250
Image of Fayrouz Saad
Fayrouz Saad
 
19.4
 
17,499
Image of Nancy Skinner
Nancy Skinner
 
10.4
 
9,407

Total votes: 90,138
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Michigan District 11

Lena Epstein defeated Rocky Raczkowski, Mike Kowall, Klint Kesto, and Kerry Bentivolio in the Republican primary for U.S. House Michigan District 11 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Lena Epstein
Lena Epstein
 
30.9
 
26,925
Image of Rocky Raczkowski
Rocky Raczkowski
 
25.5
 
22,216
Image of Mike Kowall
Mike Kowall
 
18.4
 
16,011
Image of Klint Kesto
Klint Kesto
 
14.0
 
12,213
Image of Kerry Bentivolio
Kerry Bentivolio
 
11.3
 
9,831

Total votes: 87,196
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Libertarian primary election

Libertarian primary for U.S. House Michigan District 11

Leonard Schwartz advanced from the Libertarian primary for U.S. House Michigan District 11 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Leonard Schwartz
Leonard Schwartz Candidate Connection
 
100.0
 
533

Total votes: 533
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: Michigan's 11th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent David Trott (R) defeated Anil Kumar (D), Jonathan Ray Osment (L), and Kerry Bentivolio (I) in the general election on November 8, 2016. No candidate faced a primary opponent in August.[14][15][16][17]

U.S. House, Michigan District 11 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDavid Trott Incumbent 52.9% 200,872
     Democratic Anil Kumar 40.2% 152,461
     Independent Kerry Bentivolio 4.4% 16,610
     Libertarian Jonathan Osment 2.5% 9,545
Total Votes 379,488
Source: Michigan Secretary of State

2014

See also: Michigan's 11th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 11th Congressional District of Michigan held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. David Trott (R) defeated Bobby McKenzie (D) and John Tatar (L) in the general election.

U.S. House, Michigan District 11 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDave Trott 56.2% 140,435
     Democratic Bobby McKenzie 40.7% 101,681
     Libertarian John Tatar 3.1% 7,711
Total Votes 249,827
Source: Michigan Secretary of State

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. Daily Kos, ""Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2016, 2012, and 2008,"" accessed June 24, 2020
  2. United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
  3. 270towin.com, "Michigan," accessed June 29, 2017
  4. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  5. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  6. Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  7. FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  8. Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  9. Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  10. Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  11. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  12. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  13. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  14. Michigan Secretary of State, "2016 Michigan Candidate Listing," accessed April 20, 2016
  15. Politico, "Michigan House Primaries Results," August 2, 2016
  16. Michigan Secretary of State, "2016 Michigan Candidate Listing," accessed September 6, 2016
  17. CNN, "Election Results," accessed November 8, 2016


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