Margin of victory analysis for the 2020 state legislative elections

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On November 3, 2020, 86 of the nation's 99 state legislative chambers held regularly-scheduled elections for 5,875 seats, meaning that 79.6% of all state legislative seats were up for election.

Republicans won new majorities in two chambers: the New Hampshire State Senate and New Hampshire House of Representatives. There were no chambers where Democrats won new majorities in 2020. In one other chamber, the Alaska House of Representatives, a minority coalition remained in control.

Across all 5,875 seats up for election, the average margin of victory was 27.0%. An electoral margin of victory (MOV) is the difference between the share of votes cast for the winning candidate and the second-place candidate in an election. Only races with more than one candidate were included in this average.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • Major-party candidates won 928 seats by margins of 10% or less; 444 of those seats were won by Democrats and 484 by Republicans.
  • The average margin of victory was 26.7% for Democrats and 27.3% for Republicans.
  • The chamber with the smallest average margin of victory in 2020 was the New Hampshire House of Representatives (9.1%), followed by the Vermont State Senate (11.1%) and the South Dakota House of Representatives (11.3%).

    • On this page, you will find an overview of average margins of victory by chamber, a detailed breakdown of each legislative chamber's margins of victory, and a closer look at the races decided by margins of 0.5% or smaller.

    To learn more about margins of victory in the previous even-year state legislative elections (2018), click here.

    Margin of victory

    The margin of victory is the difference between the vote share received by a winning candidate and the runner-up. For example, if Candidate A wins an election with 55 percent of the vote and Candidate B, the second-place finisher, wins 45 percent of the vote, the winner's margin of victory is 10 percent. In chambers with multimember districts, the margin of victory is calculated as the difference between the winning candidate with the fewest votes and the losing candidate with the most votes. Margins of victory can be used to measure electoral competitiveness, political party or candidate strength, and, indirectly, the popularity of a particular policy or set of policies.

    Upper chamber average margins of victory

    The table below shows the number of seats up for election and the average margin of victory in each state legislative upper chamber.

    Average MOV for state legislative upper chamber elections, 2020
    Chamber Seats up for election Average margin of victory
    Alaska State Senate 10 28.71%
    Arizona State Senate 30 34.89%
    Arkansas State Senate 17 27.32%
    California State Senate 20 24.33%
    Colorado State Senate 18 28.37%
    Connecticut State Senate 36 17.43%
    Delaware State Senate 11 24.20%
    Florida State Senate 20 24.76%
    Georgia State Senate 56 34.33%
    Hawaii State Senate 13 33.35%
    Idaho State Senate 35 34.16%
    Illinois State Senate 20 26.88%
    Indiana State Senate 25 29.16%
    Iowa State Senate 25 23.37%
    Kansas State Senate 40 22.25%
    Kentucky State Senate 19 47.23%
    Maine State Senate 35 19.70%
    Massachusetts State Senate 40 33.67%
    Minnesota State Senate 67 29.37%
    Missouri State Senate 17 41.97%
    Montana State Senate 25 24.98%
    Nebraska State Senate 25 20.69%
    Nevada State Senate 10 20.27%
    New Hampshire State Senate 24 15.65%
    New Mexico State Senate 42 25.60%
    New York State Senate 63 32.14%
    North Carolina State Senate 50 27.26%
    North Dakota State Senate 23 24.68%
    Ohio State Senate 16 25.67%
    Oklahoma State Senate 24 34.18%
    Oregon State Senate 15 27.27%
    Pennsylvania State Senate 25 26.64%
    Rhode Island State Senate 38 27.23%
    South Carolina State Senate 46 24.24%
    South Dakota State Senate 35 31.62%
    Tennessee State Senate 16 40.09%
    Texas State Senate 16 35.67%
    Utah State Senate 15 41.88%
    Vermont State Senate 30 11.10%
    Washington State Senate 25 20.28%
    West Virginia State Senate 17 19.87%
    Wisconsin State Senate 16 31.22%
    Wyoming State Senate 15 33.87%

    Lower chamber average margins of victory

    The table below shows the number of seats up for election and the average margin of victory in each state legislative lower chamber.

    Average MOV for state legislative lower chamber elections, 2020
    Chamber Seats up for election Average margin of victory
    Alaska House of Representatives 40 24.17%
    Arizona House of Representatives 60 11.47%
    Arkansas House of Representatives 100 30.69%
    California State Assembly 80 29.36%
    Colorado House of Representatives 65 28.15%
    Connecticut House of Representatives 151 23.41%
    Delaware House of Representatives 41 32.19%
    Florida House of Representatives 120 21.91%
    Georgia House of Representatives 180 30.87%
    Hawaii House of Representatives 51 38.49%
    Idaho House of Representatives 70 38.45%
    Illinois House of Representatives 118 32.80%
    Indiana House of Representatives 100 29.45%
    Iowa House of Representatives 100 23.78%
    Kansas House of Representatives 125 25.39%
    Kentucky House of Representatives 100 33.86%
    Maine House of Representatives 151 20.41%
    Massachusetts House of Representatives 160 23.69%
    Michigan House of Representatives 110 31.36%
    Minnesota House of Representatives 134 30.05%
    Missouri House of Representatives 163 33.04%
    Montana House of Representatives 100 29.70%
    Nevada State Assembly 42 23.38%
    New Hampshire House of Representatives 400 9.09%
    New Mexico House of Representatives 70 23.88%
    New York State Assembly 150 36.14%
    North Carolina House of Representatives 120 26.87%
    North Dakota House of Representatives 46 14.73%
    Ohio House of Representatives 99 35.60%
    Oklahoma House of Representatives 101 26.62%
    Oregon House of Representatives 60 27.90%
    Pennsylvania House of Representatives 203 26.81%
    Rhode Island House of Representatives 75 24.23%
    South Carolina House of Representatives 124 31.69%
    South Dakota House of Representatives 70 11.35%
    Tennessee House of Representatives 99 39.68%
    Texas House of Representatives 150 28.99%
    Utah House of Representatives 75 35.20%
    Vermont House of Representatives 150 16.36%
    Washington House of Representatives 98 27.63%
    West Virginia House of Delegates 100 21.08%
    Wisconsin State Assembly 99 27.16%
    Wyoming House of Representatives 60 27.42%

    Election results by chamber

    The chart below displays the breakdown of races by the winner's partisan affiliation and margin of victory for each state legislative chamber with single-member districts which held elections in 2020. A darker shade of red or blue indicates a larger margin for that party. The table below displays how many seats were up for election in each chamber and how many seats each party won. It also includes a breakdown of how many seats Democrats and Republicans won by 10% or less and without opposition in each chamber, as well as the average margin of victory for each party. Click on a particular header to sort the table.

    Average MOV for state legislative elections, 2020
    Chamber Seats up for election Democratic Party Seats won by Democrats Democratic Party Seats won by Democrats by margins of 10% or less Democratic Party Seats won by unopposed Democrats Democratic Party Average margin of victory for Democrats Republican Party Seats won by Republicans Republican Party Seats won by Republicans by margins of 10% or less Republican Party Seats won by unopposed Republicans Republican Party Average margin of victory for Republicans Grey.png Seats won by independent and minor party candidates
    Alaska House of Representatives 40 15 4 5 17.6% 21 3 4 30.5% 4
    Alaska State Senate 10 3 0 1 23.7% 7 1 1 30.4% 0
    Arizona House of Representatives 60 13 5 2 14.5% 17 10 1 9.4% 0
    Arizona State Senate 30 14 1 5 26.6% 16 4 1 39.9% 0
    Arkansas House of Representatives 100 22 2 14 17.3% 78 5 43 33.8% 0
    Arkansas State Senate 17 2 0 1 29.8% 15 1 8 27.0% 0
    California State Assembly 80 60 3 2 33.1% 19 6 2 17.8% 1
    California State Senate 20 17 4 0 27.1% 3 2 0 8.7% 0
    Colorado House of Representatives 65 41 2 5 28.7% 24 3 1 27.2% 0
    Colorado State Senate 18 11 0 0 37.4% 7 2 0 14.2% 0
    Connecticut House of Representatives 151 97 24 21 28.5% 54 19 7 15.2% 0
    Connecticut State Senate 36 24 6 3 22.6% 12 8 1 7.6% 0
    Delaware House of Representatives 41 26 0 14 35.3% 15 2 6 28.0% 0
    Delaware State Senate 11 8 2 2 26.5% 3 0 2 10.7% 0
    Florida House of Representatives 120 42 5 23 21.8% 78 17 1 21.9% 0
    Florida State Senate 20 9 1 1 31.1% 11 2 0 20.2% 0
    Georgia House of Representatives 180 77 7 55 22.0% 103 13 38 33.9% 0
    Georgia State Senate 56 22 1 14 34.9% 34 2 13 34.1% 0
    Hawaii House of Representatives 51 47 2 17 40.9% 4 1 0 20.6% 0
    Hawaii State Senate 13 12 0 6 36.1% 1 0 0 16.7% 0
    Idaho House of Representatives 70 12 2 2 30.1% 58 2 24 40.9% 0
    Idaho State Senate 35 7 1 1 20.5% 28 1 15 40.5% 0
    Illinois House of Representatives 118 73 9 40 35.9% 45 10 7 30.1% 0
    Illinois State Senate 20 17 3 8 15.9% 3 0 1 76.4% 0
    Indiana House of Representatives 100 29 2 14 24.7% 71 7 17 30.8% 0
    Indiana State Senate 25 7 1 6 5.1% 18 1 3 30.8% 0
    Iowa House of Representatives 100 41 7 18 17.2% 59 11 9 26.8% 0
    Iowa State Senate 25 6 2 2 18.6% 19 2 3 24.6% 0
    Kansas House of Representatives 125 39 10 11 21.1% 86 13 34 27.7% 0
    Kansas State Senate 40 11 6 1 18.6% 29 7 10 24.2% 0
    Kentucky House of Representatives 100 25 4 15 17.6% 75 9 18 36.7% 0
    Kentucky State Senate 19 5 0 4 99.7% 14 2 3 42.5% 0
    Maine House of Representatives 151 80 13 23 20.2% 67 16 10 21.5% 4
    Maine State Senate 35 22 6 2 15.8% 13 0 0 25.8% 0
    Massachusetts House of Representatives 160 129 5 102 29.4% 30 7 15 12.7% 1
    Massachusetts State Senate 40 37 2 29 38.2% 3 0 1 15.5% 0
    Michigan House of Representatives 110 52 9 1 36.6% 58 5 0 26.7% 0
    Minnesota House of Representatives 134 70 14 2 31.1% 64 11 0 28.9% 0
    Minnesota State Senate 67 33 6 0 31.8% 34 8 0 27.0% 0
    Missouri House of Representatives 163 49 7 27 27.4% 114 5 51 35.0% 0
    Missouri State Senate 17 7 1 1 49.3% 10 2 3 35.6% 0
    Montana House of Representatives 100 33 5 6 25.5% 67 9 23 32.3% 0
    Montana State Senate 25 8 3 1 17.9% 17 2 7 29.9% 0
    Nebraska State Senate 25 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0.0% 25
    Nevada State Assembly 42 26 5 4 25.1% 16 3 7 19.3% 0
    Nevada State Senate 10 6 1 3 22.9% 4 2 0 18.3% 0
    New Hampshire House of Representatives 400 105 66 9 10.3% 99 71 1 7.9% 0
    New Hampshire State Senate 24 10 2 0 19.1% 14 4 0 13.2% 0
    New Mexico House of Representatives 70 44 12 7 25.1% 25 5 13 18.0% 1
    New Mexico State Senate 42 27 5 1 28.0% 15 3 8 16.7% 0
    New York State Assembly 150 106 8 39 43.3% 43 3 8 23.1% 1
    New York State Senate 63 42 7 11 39.1% 21 6 5 18.7% 0
    North Carolina House of Representatives 120 51 10 7 27.8% 69 12 4 26.2% 0
    North Carolina State Senate 50 22 5 0 27.2% 28 4 0 27.3% 0
    North Dakota House of Representatives 46 2 2 0 2.0% 21 5 3 16.1% 0
    North Dakota State Senate 23 1 1 0 8.4% 22 6 7 25.8% 0
    Ohio House of Representatives 99 35 8 7 26.7% 64 5 4 39.8% 0
    Ohio State Senate 16 1 0 0 19.7% 15 4 0 26.1% 0
    Oklahoma House of Representatives 101 19 5 6 17.3% 82 3 58 31.7% 0
    Oklahoma State Senate 24 2 1 1 1.8% 22 1 10 36.9% 0
    Oregon House of Representatives 60 37 8 6 26.2% 23 2 0 30.2% 0
    Oregon State Senate 15 6 1 4 21.1% 9 2 0 28.6% 0
    Pennsylvania House of Representatives 203 90 11 33 27.3% 113 14 34 26.5% 0
    Pennsylvania State Senate 25 10 2 5 13.5% 15 2 1 31.3% 0
    Rhode Island House of Representatives 75 65 7 40 25.7% 10 2 4 18.2% 0
    Rhode Island State Senate 38 33 2 19 28.8% 5 1 2 20.1% 0
    South Carolina House of Representatives 124 43 6 19 32.6% 81 3 47 31.1% 0
    South Carolina State Senate 46 16 4 6 14.4% 30 2 9 28.9% 0
    South Dakota House of Representatives 70 7 4 3 4.5% 30 9 9 12.7% 0
    South Dakota State Senate 35 3 2 0 9.2% 32 1 10 34.7% 0
    Tennessee House of Representatives 99 26 3 18 29.0% 73 4 34 41.9% 0
    Tennessee State Senate 16 2 1 1 3.5% 14 1 3 43.4% 0
    Texas House of Representatives 150 67 10 26 27.8% 83 16 22 29.8% 0
    Texas State Senate 16 8 1 0 36.7% 8 0 1 34.5% 0
    Utah House of Representatives 75 17 3 2 24.0% 58 5 11 38.8% 0
    Utah State Senate 15 2 0 0 21.3% 13 0 5 47.0% 0
    Vermont House of Representatives 150 70 17 23 17.9% 29 10 10 12.2% 5
    Vermont State Senate 30 7 4 0 9.8% 6 3 2 13.4% 0
    Washington House of Representatives 98 57 6 6 30.6% 41 9 4 23.6% 0
    Washington State Senate 25 12 3 1 22.4% 13 3 3 17.9% 0
    West Virginia House of Delegates 100 18 11 1 8.6% 49 10 10 26.5% 0
    West Virginia State Senate 17 3 1 0 10.4% 14 4 2 22.2% 0
    Wisconsin State Assembly 99 38 8 6 30.9% 61 8 10 24.8% 0
    Wisconsin State Senate 16 6 1 2 56.3% 10 2 2 18.7% 0
    Wyoming House of Representatives 60 7 3 4 3.0% 51 3 33 33.7% 2
    Wyoming State Senate 15 0 0 0 0.0% 15 0 9 33.9% 0
    Totals 5,875 2,503 444 827 26.7% 2,950 484 788 27.3% 44

    State legislative races decided by 10% or less

    In 2020, there were 952 races decided by margins of 10% or less. The map below shows the percentage of races in each state decided by margins of 10% or less.

    State legislative races decided by 0.5% or less

    In 2020, there were 56 races decided by margins of 0.5% or less.

    State legislative races decided by 0.5% or less, 2020
    District Winner Runner-up Margin (number of votes) Margin (%)
    Florida State Senate District 37 Republican Party Ileana Garcia Democratic Party Jose Javier Rodriguez 32 0.01%
    West Virginia House of Delegates District 51 Democratic Party John Williams Republican Party Cindy Frich 33 0.02%
    New Hampshire House of Representatives Hillsborough 21 Republican Party Mary Mayville Republican Party Jack Balcom 22 0.02%
    Connecticut House of Representatives District 90 Republican Party Craig Fishbein Democratic Party Jim Jinks 7 0.05%
    Pennsylvania State Senate District 45 Democratic Party James Brewster Republican Party Nicole Ziccarelli 69 0.05%
    Ohio State Senate District 16 Republican Party Stephanie Kunze Democratic Party Crystal Lett 116 0.05%
    Washington State Senate District 5 Democratic Party Mark Mullet Democratic Party Ingrid Anderson 58 0.07%
    West Virginia House of Delegates District 50 Democratic Party Joey Garcia Democratic Party Michael Angelucci 65 0.10%
    Arkansas House of Representatives District 38 Republican Party Carlton Wing Democratic Party Matthew Stallings 16 0.11%
    New Hampshire House of Representatives Hillsborough 19 Republican Party Dick Marston Democratic Party William E. Zackeroff 10 0.12%
    Alaska House of Representatives District 27 Democratic Party Liz Snyder Republican Party Lance Pruitt 11 0.12%
    New Hampshire House of Representatives Carroll 3 Democratic Party Jerry Knirk Democratic Party Susan Ticehurst 11 0.12%
    New Hampshire House of Representatives Merrimack 20 Republican Party Nick White Democratic Party David Doherty 20 0.13%
    Minnesota House of Representatives District 6A Democratic Party Julie Sandstede Republican Party Robert Farnsworth 30 0.14%
    New Hampshire House of Representatives Strafford 7 Democratic Party Timothy Fontneau Republican Party Harrison deBree 4 0.14%
    Arkansas House of Representatives District 32 Democratic Party Ashley Hudson Republican Party Jim Sorvillo 24 0.14%
    North Dakota House of Representatives District 18 Democratic Party Corey Mock Republican Party Cindy Kaml 16 0.16%
    West Virginia House of Delegates District 16 Republican Party John Mandt Jr. Republican Party Mark Bates 71 0.17%
    New Hampshire House of Representatives Hillsborough 34 Democratic Party Melbourne Moran Jr. Republican Party Charlie Hall 18 0.17%
    New Hampshire House of Representatives Hillsborough 15 Democratic Party Erika Connors Republican Party Macy McNair 17 0.18%
    Vermont House of Representatives Grand Isle-Chittenden District Republican Party Michael Morgan Democratic Party Mitzi Johnson 20 0.19%
    New Hampshire House of Representatives Hillsborough 43 Democratic Party Benjamin Baroody Republican Party Joseph Lachance 77 0.20%
    New Hampshire House of Representatives Hillsborough 4 Republican Party Lisa Post Democratic Party Jennifer Bernet 22 0.21%
    Oregon House of Representatives District 52 Democratic Party Anna Williams Republican Party Jeffrey Helfrich 84 0.21%
    West Virginia House of Delegates District 35 Democratic Party Kayla Young Democratic Party Kathy Ferguson 247 0.24%
    New Hampshire House of Representatives Hillsborough 38 Democratic Party Stephanie Hyland Republican Party Riche Colcombe 70 0.28%
    Missouri House of Representatives District 21 Democratic Party Robert Sauls Republican Party Vicki Riley 45 0.29%
    New Hampshire House of Representatives Rockingham 21 Democratic Party Robert Cushing Democratic Party Katherine Harake 124 0.32%
    Texas House of Representatives District 112 Republican Party Angie Chen Button Democratic Party Brandy Chambers 222 0.32%
    New Hampshire House of Representatives Hillsborough 22 Democratic Party Tony Labranche Republican Party Peter Hansen 74 0.34%
    Iowa State Senate District 22 Democratic Party Sarah Trone Garriott Republican Party Scott Cirksena 164 0.36%
    South Carolina House of Representatives District 90 Democratic Party Justin Bamberg Republican Party Glenn Posey 59 0.36%
    Minnesota House of Representatives District 38B Democratic Party Ami Wazlawik Republican Party Elliott Engen 100 0.36%
    South Dakota House of Representatives District 12 Republican Party Arch Beal Democratic Party Erin Royer 66 0.37%
    Oklahoma House of Representatives District 46 Democratic Party Jacob Rosecrants Republican Party Nancy Sangirardi 79 0.38%
    Utah House of Representatives District 45 Republican Party Steven Eliason Democratic Party Wendy Davis 77 0.40%
    Texas House of Representatives District 135 Democratic Party Jon Rosenthal Republican Party Justin Ray 300 0.40%
    Michigan House of Representatives District 19 Democratic Party Laurie Pohutsky Republican Party Martha Ptashnik 237 0.40%
    Arizona State Senate District 28 Democratic Party Christine Marsh Republican Party Kate Brophy McGee 497 0.41%
    Wisconsin State Assembly District 73 Democratic Party Nick Milroy Republican Party Keith Kern 139 0.42%
    New Hampshire House of Representatives Hillsborough 28 Republican Party Tom Lanzara Democratic Party William Bordy 67 0.42%
    Montana State Senate District 38 Democratic Party Edith McClafferty Republican Party Jim Buterbaugh 57 0.43%
    New Hampshire House of Representatives Rockingham 5 Republican Party Wayne MacDonald Democratic Party Anne Warner 412 0.45%
    Missouri House of Representatives District 135 Democratic Party Betsy Fogle Republican Party Steve Helms 79 0.45%
    Illinois House of Representatives District 68 Democratic Party Dave Vella Republican Party John M. Cabello 239 0.45%
    Kansas House of Representatives District 48 Democratic Party Jennifer Day Republican Party Terry Frederick 62 0.45%
    New Hampshire State Senate District 11 Republican Party Gary Daniels Democratic Party Shannon Chandley 159 0.46%
    New Hampshire House of Representatives Hillsborough 16 Democratic Party Joshua Query Republican Party Robert Kliskey 35 0.46%
    Kansas House of Representatives District 102 Democratic Party Jason Probst Republican Party John Whitesel 31 0.46%
    Minnesota House of Representatives District 19A Republican Party Susan Akland Democratic Party Jeff Brand 108 0.47%
    Kansas House of Representatives District 16 Democratic Party Linda Featherston Republican Party Rashard Young 67 0.47%
    New Hampshire House of Representatives Strafford 2 Republican Party Joseph Pitre Democratic Party Emmanuel Krasner 23 0.47%
    New Hampshire House of Representatives Hillsborough 23 Democratic Party Maria Perez Republican Party Michael Thornton 142 0.48%
    Vermont House of Representatives Orange-1 District Republican Party Samantha Lefebvre Democratic Party Kate MacLean 40 0.48%
    Vermont House of Representatives Rutland-2 District Republican Party Arthur Peterson Democratic Party Dave Potter 42 0.49%
    Nevada State Senate District 5 Republican Party Carrie Buck Democratic Party Kristee Watson 329 0.49%

    See also

    Footnotes

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