Montana State Senate elections, 2016
| 2016 Montana Senate Elections | |
|---|---|
 | |
| Primary | June 7, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
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| 2016 Elections | |
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A total of 25 seats out of the 50 seats in the Montana State Senate were up for election in 2016. Republicans gained three seats in the November 2016 general election.
Montana state senators serve staggered, four-year terms and half of the senate is up for election every two years.
Introduction
Elections for the Montana State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election was held on June 7, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was March 14, 2016.
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the Montana State Senate:
| Montana State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 20 | 18 | |
| Republican Party | 29 | 32 | |
| Vacancy | 1 | 0 | |
| Total | 50 | 50 | |
Incumbents retiring
Fourteen incumbents did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Bruce Tutvedt | Senate District 3 | |
| Janna Taylor | Senate District 6 | |
| Rick Ripley | Senate District 10 | |
| Brad Hamlett | Senate District 15 | |
| Jonathan Windy Boy | Senate District 16 | |
| John Brenden | Senate District 17 | |
| Matthew Rosendale | Senate District 18 | |
| Sharon Stewart-Peregoy | Senate District 21 | |
| Elsie Arntzen | Senate District 26 | |
| Taylor Brown | Senate District 28 | |
| Debby Barrett | Senate District 36 | |
| Jim Keane | Senate District 38 | |
| Christine Kaufmann | Senate District 40 | |
| Cliff Larsen | Senate District 47 |
2016 election competitiveness
Montana saw some improvement in electoral competitiveness.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Montana performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the Montana State Senate, there were 21 Democratic incumbents and 29 Republican incumbents. No incumbents faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There was just one primary challenge in the Republican primary.
- In the House, there were 41 Democratic incumbents and 59 Republican incumbents. One state representative faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were 11 primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in Montana can be found below.
List of candidates
General election
| 2016 Montana Senate candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Other | ||
| 2 | No candidate | Dee Brown (I) |
|
| 3 | Melissa Hartman: 4,946 | Keith Regier: 6,511 |
|
| 6 | Rolf Harmsen: 2,862 | Albert Olszewski: 7,370 |
|
| 7 | Mark Sheets: 3,300 | Jennifer Fielder: 6,761 (I) |
|
| 10 | Deborah Magin: 2,352 | Steve Fitzpatrick: 7,851 |
|
| 15 | Sean McConnaha: 2,351 | Ryan Osmundson: 7,806 |
|
| 16 | Frank Smith: 3,752 |
Bruce Meyers: 2,783 | |
| 17 | Douglas Adolphson: 2,215 | Mike Lang: 7,732 |
|
| 18 | No candidate | Steve Hinebauch |
|
| 21 | Carolyn Pease-Lopez: 3,087 | Jason Small: 3,277 |
|
| 23 | Paul Van Tricht: 3,404 | Roger Webb: 6,652 (I) |
|
| 25 | Jen Gross: 3,591 |
Donna Huston: 3,495 | |
| 26 | Margie MacDonald: 7,658 |
Donald Roberts: 7,614 | |
| 28 | Deborah Abbey: 2,839 | Tom Richmond: 5,743 |
|
| 31 | Mike Phillips (I) |
No candidate | |
| 35 | No candidate | Scott Sales (I) |
|
| 36 | No candidate | Jeff Welborn |
|
| 37 | Jon Sesso (I) |
No candidate | |
| 38 | Edith McClafferty: 6,113 |
Glenn Rosenbaum: 5,314 | |
| 39 | Gene Vuckovich: 4,686 (I) |
Suzzann Nordwick: 3,494 | Dick Motta: 623 (L) |
| 40 | Hal Jacobson: 5,509 | Terry Gauthier: 6,135 |
|
| 44 | James Olsen: 3,258 | Fred Thomas: 7,614 (I) |
|
| 45 | Dick Barrett: 6,372 (I) |
Sashin Hume: 3,459 | |
| 46 | Sue Malek: 7,003 (I) |
Adam Pummill: 3,804 | |
| 47 | Tom France: 4,443 | Daniel Salomon: 4,836 |
|
Notes:
| |||
Primary election
Ballotpedia identified 17 notable Montana state primary races in 2016, four of which were state Senate contests.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable Montana races »
Primary contests
- The House Majority Leader competed with another GOP candidate for an open seat left by the GOP incumbent.
- ☑ Keith Regier (Inc.) ☐ Don Kaltschmidt
- Two Republicans competed for an open seat left by the Democratic incumbent.
- ☑ Steve Fitzpatrick ☐ J.C. Kantorowicz
- Three Republicans competed for the open seat left by the Republican incumbent.
- ☐ Hertha Lund ☐ Harry Klock ☑ Ryan Osmundson
- Two Republicans competed for the open seat left by the Republican incumbent.
- ☑ Jeff Welborn ☐ Dale Stewart
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Montana State Senate in 2016 was lower than the national average. Out of 25 races in the Montana State Senate in 2016, 19 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 24.7 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[2]
| Republican candidates in the Montana State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic candidates in 2016. Republicans won 16 races. In the 12 races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 31.2 percent. Democrats won nine races in 2016. In the seven races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 13.7 percent. |
| Democratic candidates and Republican candidates each won three races with margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. Six of the 19 contested races in 2016—31.6 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Four races saw margins of victory that were 5 percent or less. Both parties won three races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less. |
Montana State Senate: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 21 R 3.0 percent District 25 D 1.4 percent District 26 D 0.3 percent District 38 D 7.0 percent District 40 R 5.4 percent District 47 R 4.2 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Montana State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was lower than the national average. 10 incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the six winning Montana State Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 29.9 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Republican incumbents in the Montana State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic incumbents. Five Republican incumbents won re-election. In the three races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 35.6 percent. Five Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the three races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 24.3 percent. |
Montana State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[3] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[3] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 9 13.7 percent 5 24.3 percent 2 2 22.2 percent Republican 16 31.2 percent 5 35.6 percent 2 4 25.0 percent Total 25 24.7 percent 10 29.9 percent 4 6 24.0 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Montana State Senate districts in 2016.
| Montana State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 2 | R | Unopposed |
| District 3 | R | 13.7 percent |
| District 6 | R | 44.1 percent |
| District 7 | R | 34.4 percent |
| District 10 | R | 53.9 percent |
| District 15 | R | 53.7 percent |
| District 16 | D | 14.8 percent |
| District 17 | R | 55.5 percent |
| District 18 | R | Unopposed |
| District 21 | R | 3.0 percent |
| District 23 | R | 32.3 percent |
| District 25 | D | 1.4 percent |
| District 26 | D | 0.3 percent |
| District 28 | R | 33.8 percent |
| District 31 | D | Unopposed |
| District 35 | R | Unopposed |
| District 36 | R | Unopposed |
| District 37 | D | Unopposed |
| District 38 | D | 7.0 percent |
| District 39 | D | 13.5 percent |
| District 40 | R | 5.4 percent |
| District 44 | R | 40.1 percent |
| District 45 | D | 29.6 percent |
| District 46 | D | 29.6 percent |
| District 47 | R | 4.2 percent |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Montana elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Montana in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| March 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering January 1 through February 25)–statewide candidates only | |
| March 14, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for primary candidates | |
| April 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering February 26 through March 27)–statewide candidates only | |
| May 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering March 28 through April 26)–statewide candidates only | |
| May 3, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering beginning of campaign through April 28)–state district candidates only | |
| May 23, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering April 27 through May 18)–statewide candidates only | |
| May 26, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering April 29 through May 21)–state district candidates only | |
| May 31, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for independent, minor party and indigent candidates to submit petitions to county election officials | |
| June 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering May 19 through May 27)–statewide candidates only | |
| June 6, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for independent, minor party and indigent candidates to submit declarations and filing fees to the necessary filing official | |
| June 7, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| June 27, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering May 28 through June 22)–statewide candidates only | |
| June 27, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering May 22 through June 22)–state district candidates only | |
| July 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering June 23 through June 26)–statewide candidates only | |
| August 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering June 27 through July 27)–statewide candidates only | |
| September 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering July 28 through August 27)–statewide candidates only | |
| October 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering August 28 through September 26)–statewide candidates only | |
| October 4, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering June 23 through September 29)–state district candidates only | |
| October 24, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering September 27 through October 19)–statewide candidates only | |
| October 27, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering September 30 through October 22)–state district candidates only | |
| November 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering October 20 through October 27)–statewide candidates only | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| November 28, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering October 28 through November 23)–statewide candidates only | |
| November 28, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering October 23 through November 23)–state district candidates only | |
| Source: Montana Secretary of State, "Candidate Information," accessed June 12, 2015 Montana Commissioner of Political Practices, "Statewide Candidates: Candidate Finance Report Calendar: 2015-2016," accessed October 28, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 3 (12.0%) of the 25 districts up for election, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of two Democrats and one Republican were guaranteed election in November barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 23 (88.0%) of the 25 districts up for election.
Primary challenges
One incumbent, Jennifer Fielder (R) of District 7, faced primary competition on June 7. Fourteen incumbents did not seek re-election in 2016 and another 10 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition.
Retired incumbents
Fourteen incumbent representatives did not run for re-election, while 11 (44.0%) ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents, six Democrats and eight Republicans, can be found above.
Impact of term limits
The Montana State Senate has been a term-limited state senate since Montana voters approved CI-64 in 1992. C-64 created Section 8 of Article IV of the Montana Constitution, which says that Montana State Senators cannot serve eight or more years in any 16-year period as a state senator.
Altogether, there are 50 Montana State Senators. In 2016, eleven members, six Democrats and five Republicans, were ineligible to run for the senate again in November.
In addition to the 11 state senators who were required to leave office because of term limits, thirteen state representatives were also termed out.
The state senators who were term-limited in 2016 were:
Democrats (6):
Republicans (5):
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Montana's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Montana Legislature 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 36.8% | 23.1% | 84.0% | 48.0 | 5 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in Montana in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[4]
| Montana State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 70 | $866,925 |
| 2012 | 67 | $868,976 |
| 2010 | 70 | $1,023,666 |
| 2008 | 56 | $744,302 |
| 2006 | 62 | $686,837 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state senates. The average contributions raised by state senate candidates in 2014 was $148,144. Montana, at $12,385 per candidate, is ranked 39 of 42 for state senate chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s senate candidates in 2014.[4][5]
Qualifications
Section 4 of Article 5 of the Montana Constitution states: "A candidate for the legislature shall be a resident of the state for at least one year next preceding the general election. For six months next preceding the general election, he shall be a resident of the county if it contains one or more districts or of the district if it contains all or parts of more than one county."[6]
See also
External links
- Montana Secretary of State - 2016 Candidate Filing List: Legislative
- Montana Secretary of State - Primary results
Footnotes
- ↑ Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory of less than 5 percent are considered highly competitive. Districts that have a margin of victory from 5 to 10 percent are considered mildly competitive.
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Montana," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
- ↑ Montana Judicial Branch, "Montana Constitution," accessed March 30, 2014
