Florida's 1st Congressional District election, 2018
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 9
- Early voting: Oct. 27 - Nov. 3[2]
- Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 6
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: No
- Voter ID: Photo ID required
- Poll times: 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.
2020 →
← 2016
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| Florida's 1st Congressional District |
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| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: May 4, 2018 |
| Primary: August 28, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: Matt Gaetz (Republican) |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voting in Florida |
| Race ratings |
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican Inside Elections: Solid Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018 |
| See also |
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 15th • 16th • 17th • 18th • 19th • 20th • 21st • 22nd • 23rd • 24th • 25th • 26th • 27th Florida elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 |
All U.S. congressional districts, including the 1st Congressional District of Florida, held elections in 2018.
Heading into the election the incumbent was Matt Gaetz (R), who was first elected in 2016.
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for U.S. House Florida District 1
Incumbent Matt Gaetz defeated Jennifer Zimmerman in the general election for U.S. House Florida District 1 on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Matt Gaetz (R) | 67.1 | 216,189 | |
| Jennifer Zimmerman (D) | 32.9 | 106,199 | ||
| Total votes: 322,388 (100.00% precincts reporting) | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 1
Jennifer Zimmerman defeated Phil Ehr in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 1 on August 28, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Jennifer Zimmerman | 60.5 | 22,422 | |
| Phil Ehr | 39.5 | 14,650 | ||
| Total votes: 37,072 | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 1
Incumbent Matt Gaetz defeated Cris Dosev and John Mills in the Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 1 on August 28, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Matt Gaetz | 64.8 | 65,203 | |
| Cris Dosev | 30.2 | 30,433 | ||
| John Mills | 5.0 | 4,992 | ||
| Total votes: 100,628 | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+22, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 22 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Florida's 1st Congressional District the 28th most Republican nationally.[3]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.95. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.95 points toward that party.[4]
Endorsements
John Mills
Campaign finance
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Gaetz | Republican Party | $1,347,178 | $1,264,157 | $141,962 | As of December 31, 2018 |
| Jennifer Zimmerman | Democratic Party | $62,277 | $65,474 | $0 | As of December 31, 2018 |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
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District history
2016
Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Jeff Miller did not seek re-election in 2016. Matt Gaetz (R) defeated Steven Specht (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Gaetz defeated Brian Frazier, James Zumwalt, Rebekah Johansen Bydlak, Cris Dosev, Mark Wichern, and Greg Evers in the Republican primary on August 30, 2016.[6][7]
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |  Matt Gaetz |
69.1% | 255,107 | |
| Democratic | Steven Specht | 30.9% | 114,079 | |
| Total Votes | 369,186 | |||
| Source: Florida Division of Elections | ||||
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Matt Gaetz |
36.1% | 35,689 | ||
| Greg Evers | 21.8% | 21,540 | ||
| Cris Dosev | 20.9% | 20,610 | ||
| Rebekah Bydlak | 7.8% | 7,689 | ||
| James Zumwalt | 7.8% | 7,660 | ||
| Brian Frazier | 3.9% | 3,817 | ||
| Mark Wichern | 1.8% | 1,798 | ||
| Total Votes | 98,803 | |||
| Source: Florida Division of Elections |
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2014
The 1st Congressional District of Florida held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Jeff Miller (R) defeated James Bryan (D) and Mark Wichern (I) in the general election.
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jeff Miller Incumbent |
70.1% | 165,086 | |
| Democratic | James Bryan | 23.4% | 54,976 | |
| Independent | Mark Wichern | 6.5% | 15,281 | |
| Total Votes | 235,343 | |||
| Source: Florida Division of Elections | ||||
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
Four of 67 Florida counties—6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
| Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
| Jefferson County, Florida | 5.06% | 1.75% | 3.66% | ||||
| Monroe County, Florida | 6.82% | 0.44% | 4.90% | ||||
| Pinellas County, Florida | 1.11% | 5.65% | 8.25% | ||||
| St. Lucie County, Florida | 2.40% | 7.86% | 12.12% | ||||
In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Florida with 49 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.8 percent. Florida was considered a key battleground state in the 2016 general election. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Florida voted Democratic 56.67 percent of the time and Republican 43.33 percent of the time. Florida went to the Republicans in 2000, 2004, and 2016, and it went to the Democrats in 2008 and 2012.
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Florida. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[8][9]
| In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 55 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 29.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 54 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 30.3 points. Clinton won 14 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections. |
| In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 65 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 17.7 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 66 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 21.1 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections. |
| 2016 presidential results by state House district | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
| 1 | 36.20% | 62.79% | R+26.6 | 34.08% | 62.44% | R+28.4 | R |
| 2 | 40.60% | 58.27% | R+17.7 | 39.85% | 55.53% | R+15.7 | R |
| 3 | 22.07% | 76.75% | R+54.7 | 19.63% | 76.01% | R+56.4 | R |
| 4 | 25.64% | 73.07% | R+47.4 | 24.90% | 69.68% | R+44.8 | R |
| 5 | 25.87% | 73.02% | R+47.2 | 21.51% | 76.01% | R+54.5 | R |
| 6 | 28.12% | 70.72% | R+42.6 | 25.59% | 70.40% | R+44.8 | R |
| 7 | 35.78% | 63.03% | R+27.3 | 29.54% | 67.81% | R+38.3 | R |
| 8 | 76.69% | 22.32% | D+54.4 | 74.29% | 22.33% | D+52 | D |
| 9 | 52.23% | 46.70% | D+5.5 | 52.98% | 42.92% | D+10.1 | D |
| 10 | 29.54% | 69.49% | R+40 | 24.47% | 73.15% | R+48.7 | R |
| 11 | 29.10% | 69.98% | R+40.9 | 28.75% | 67.52% | R+38.8 | R |
| 12 | 38.82% | 60.18% | R+21.4 | 39.91% | 55.90% | R+16 | R |
| 13 | 66.27% | 33.01% | D+33.3 | 64.06% | 33.01% | D+31.1 | D |
| 14 | 67.05% | 32.34% | D+34.7 | 64.74% | 32.99% | D+31.8 | D |
| 15 | 43.22% | 55.85% | R+12.6 | 43.85% | 52.54% | R+8.7 | R |
| 16 | 36.02% | 63.09% | R+27.1 | 38.53% | 57.46% | R+18.9 | R |
| 17 | 29.91% | 69.15% | R+39.2 | 31.55% | 64.91% | R+33.4 | R |
| 18 | 27.33% | 71.82% | R+44.5 | 27.27% | 69.17% | R+41.9 | R |
| 19 | 31.02% | 68.02% | R+37 | 25.79% | 71.54% | R+45.8 | R |
| 20 | 65.02% | 33.40% | D+31.6 | 63.38% | 32.58% | D+30.8 | D |
| 21 | 47.01% | 51.55% | R+4.5 | 47.92% | 47.87% | D+0.1 | R |
| 22 | 40.28% | 58.79% | R+18.5 | 35.09% | 62.28% | R+27.2 | R |
| 23 | 38.65% | 60.23% | R+21.6 | 31.70% | 65.06% | R+33.4 | R |
| 24 | 41.79% | 57.34% | R+15.6 | 35.96% | 61.17% | R+25.2 | R |
| 25 | 43.38% | 55.73% | R+12.4 | 37.23% | 59.47% | R+22.2 | R |
| 26 | 57.57% | 41.40% | D+16.2 | 49.01% | 47.49% | D+1.5 | D |
| 27 | 50.25% | 48.70% | D+1.6 | 42.51% | 54.04% | R+11.5 | R |
| 28 | 46.01% | 52.86% | R+6.9 | 46.02% | 49.59% | R+3.6 | R |
| 29 | 44.35% | 54.70% | R+10.4 | 45.97% | 50.16% | R+4.2 | R |
| 30 | 50.06% | 48.88% | D+1.2 | 51.93% | 43.61% | D+8.3 | R |
| 31 | 40.55% | 58.49% | R+17.9 | 37.12% | 59.50% | R+22.4 | R |
| 32 | 43.05% | 56.11% | R+13.1 | 40.66% | 56.10% | R+15.4 | R |
| 33 | 33.03% | 66.40% | R+33.4 | 29.41% | 68.70% | R+39.3 | R |
| 34 | 38.74% | 60.18% | R+21.4 | 28.67% | 68.26% | R+39.6 | R |
| 35 | 45.66% | 53.25% | R+7.6 | 34.40% | 62.35% | R+28 | R |
| 36 | 51.81% | 46.55% | D+5.3 | 37.97% | 58.18% | R+20.2 | R |
| 37 | 42.35% | 56.41% | R+14.1 | 34.77% | 61.75% | R+27 | R |
| 38 | 44.80% | 54.00% | R+9.2 | 39.90% | 56.32% | R+16.4 | R |
| 39 | 43.29% | 55.62% | R+12.3 | 38.74% | 57.77% | R+19 | R |
| 40 | 46.30% | 52.68% | R+6.4 | 41.48% | 54.62% | R+13.1 | R |
| 41 | 48.78% | 50.29% | R+1.5 | 45.76% | 51.24% | R+5.5 | R |
| 42 | 49.88% | 49.23% | D+0.7 | 46.82% | 49.98% | R+3.2 | R |
| 43 | 74.04% | 25.31% | D+48.7 | 73.13% | 24.03% | D+49.1 | D |
| 44 | 45.77% | 53.48% | R+7.7 | 51.21% | 45.05% | D+6.2 | R |
| 45 | 68.39% | 30.95% | D+37.4 | 67.75% | 29.32% | D+38.4 | D |
| 46 | 85.10% | 14.40% | D+70.7 | 82.72% | 14.71% | D+68 | D |
| 47 | 49.79% | 49.04% | D+0.8 | 53.85% | 41.40% | D+12.5 | R |
| 48 | 71.31% | 27.89% | D+43.4 | 71.71% | 25.05% | D+46.7 | D |
| 49 | 59.87% | 38.85% | D+21 | 61.07% | 33.94% | D+27.1 | D |
| 50 | 46.33% | 52.71% | R+6.4 | 46.10% | 49.78% | R+3.7 | R |
| 51 | 43.21% | 55.60% | R+12.4 | 37.31% | 58.51% | R+21.2 | R |
| 52 | 39.39% | 59.51% | R+20.1 | 36.49% | 59.05% | R+22.6 | R |
| 53 | 48.93% | 49.90% | R+1 | 42.52% | 53.45% | R+10.9 | R |
| 54 | 39.76% | 59.51% | R+19.8 | 37.01% | 60.11% | R+23.1 | R |
| 55 | 38.22% | 60.83% | R+22.6 | 31.47% | 66.00% | R+34.5 | R |
| 56 | 41.15% | 57.81% | R+16.7 | 35.36% | 61.69% | R+26.3 | R |
| 57 | 42.15% | 56.94% | R+14.8 | 42.01% | 54.38% | R+12.4 | R |
| 58 | 46.77% | 52.09% | R+5.3 | 43.06% | 53.20% | R+10.1 | R |
| 59 | 49.52% | 49.33% | D+0.2 | 47.68% | 48.08% | R+0.4 | R |
| 60 | 45.69% | 53.23% | R+7.5 | 47.16% | 48.50% | R+1.3 | R |
| 61 | 84.25% | 14.95% | D+69.3 | 80.00% | 16.79% | D+63.2 | D |
| 62 | 64.91% | 34.12% | D+30.8 | 63.03% | 33.28% | D+29.8 | D |
| 63 | 52.82% | 46.09% | D+6.7 | 53.22% | 42.91% | D+10.3 | R |
| 64 | 43.41% | 55.66% | R+12.3 | 43.51% | 52.80% | R+9.3 | R |
| 65 | 45.20% | 53.72% | R+8.5 | 41.15% | 55.05% | R+13.9 | R |
| 66 | 47.12% | 51.78% | R+4.7 | 41.07% | 55.29% | R+14.2 | R |
| 67 | 52.12% | 46.53% | D+5.6 | 45.78% | 49.98% | R+4.2 | R |
| 68 | 54.01% | 44.56% | D+9.5 | 50.98% | 44.15% | D+6.8 | D |
| 69 | 51.25% | 47.57% | D+3.7 | 46.57% | 49.53% | R+3 | R |
| 70 | 79.17% | 20.00% | D+59.2 | 73.65% | 23.39% | D+50.3 | D |
| 71 | 45.45% | 53.64% | R+8.2 | 42.72% | 53.89% | R+11.2 | R |
| 72 | 47.80% | 51.26% | R+3.5 | 46.03% | 50.71% | R+4.7 | D |
| 73 | 37.59% | 61.60% | R+24 | 35.82% | 61.14% | R+25.3 | R |
| 74 | 42.64% | 56.48% | R+13.8 | 37.10% | 60.20% | R+23.1 | R |
| 75 | 42.40% | 56.68% | R+14.3 | 34.70% | 62.49% | R+27.8 | R |
| 76 | 35.45% | 64.01% | R+28.6 | 35.24% | 61.90% | R+26.7 | R |
| 77 | 41.60% | 57.61% | R+16 | 36.05% | 60.86% | R+24.8 | R |
| 78 | 44.44% | 54.88% | R+10.4 | 42.96% | 53.85% | R+10.9 | R |
| 79 | 45.93% | 53.26% | R+7.3 | 39.89% | 57.01% | R+17.1 | R |
| 80 | 38.79% | 60.51% | R+21.7 | 36.96% | 60.49% | R+23.5 | R |
| 81 | 60.36% | 39.13% | D+21.2 | 59.06% | 39.12% | D+19.9 | D |
| 82 | 38.70% | 60.58% | R+21.9 | 36.91% | 60.22% | R+23.3 | R |
| 83 | 48.78% | 50.42% | R+1.6 | 43.71% | 53.43% | R+9.7 | R |
| 84 | 53.34% | 45.89% | D+7.5 | 47.96% | 49.59% | R+1.6 | D |
| 85 | 47.28% | 52.04% | R+4.8 | 44.74% | 52.71% | R+8 | R |
| 86 | 58.97% | 40.46% | D+18.5 | 56.40% | 41.24% | D+15.2 | D |
| 87 | 68.41% | 30.79% | D+37.6 | 65.09% | 32.03% | D+33.1 | D |
| 88 | 82.26% | 17.18% | D+65.1 | 78.19% | 19.67% | D+58.5 | D |
| 89 | 47.47% | 51.83% | R+4.4 | 48.96% | 48.44% | D+0.5 | R |
| 90 | 62.95% | 36.37% | D+26.6 | 59.38% | 38.20% | D+21.2 | D |
| 91 | 58.67% | 40.92% | D+17.8 | 59.17% | 39.23% | D+19.9 | D |
| 92 | 74.08% | 25.42% | D+48.7 | 71.50% | 26.66% | D+44.8 | D |
| 93 | 47.43% | 51.88% | R+4.5 | 48.32% | 49.43% | R+1.1 | R |
| 94 | 83.50% | 16.05% | D+67.5 | 81.01% | 17.21% | D+63.8 | D |
| 95 | 86.68% | 12.99% | D+73.7 | 85.09% | 13.47% | D+71.6 | D |
| 96 | 61.11% | 38.32% | D+22.8 | 60.59% | 37.30% | D+23.3 | D |
| 97 | 65.66% | 33.79% | D+31.9 | 65.26% | 32.41% | D+32.9 | D |
| 98 | 60.99% | 38.39% | D+22.6 | 61.02% | 36.58% | D+24.4 | D |
| 99 | 61.62% | 37.75% | D+23.9 | 59.47% | 38.07% | D+21.4 | D |
| 100 | 57.57% | 41.85% | D+15.7 | 58.15% | 39.86% | D+18.3 | D |
| 101 | 79.29% | 20.19% | D+59.1 | 76.54% | 21.27% | D+55.3 | D |
| 102 | 85.86% | 13.86% | D+72 | 83.21% | 15.08% | D+68.1 | D |
| 103 | 54.82% | 44.76% | D+10.1 | 58.71% | 39.21% | D+19.5 | R |
| 104 | 58.34% | 41.21% | D+17.1 | 62.33% | 35.40% | D+26.9 | D |
| 105 | 53.14% | 46.37% | D+6.8 | 56.16% | 41.22% | D+14.9 | R |
| 106 | 31.21% | 68.26% | R+37.1 | 33.84% | 63.71% | R+29.9 | R |
| 107 | 86.16% | 13.52% | D+72.6 | 83.68% | 14.67% | D+69 | D |
| 108 | 89.58% | 10.12% | D+79.5 | 87.11% | 11.24% | D+75.9 | D |
| 109 | 90.13% | 9.58% | D+80.6 | 86.38% | 12.14% | D+74.2 | D |
| 110 | 50.15% | 49.43% | D+0.7 | 52.71% | 45.14% | D+7.6 | R |
| 111 | 47.97% | 51.64% | R+3.7 | 52.16% | 45.66% | D+6.5 | R |
| 112 | 53.53% | 45.94% | D+7.6 | 61.62% | 35.70% | D+25.9 | D |
| 113 | 63.42% | 35.97% | D+27.5 | 67.40% | 30.24% | D+37.2 | D |
| 114 | 50.14% | 49.27% | D+0.9 | 55.75% | 41.60% | D+14.2 | D |
| 115 | 49.45% | 50.03% | R+0.6 | 54.08% | 43.37% | D+10.7 | R |
| 116 | 44.48% | 55.04% | R+10.6 | 50.91% | 46.43% | D+4.5 | R |
| 117 | 82.64% | 17.02% | D+65.6 | 78.36% | 19.57% | D+58.8 | D |
| 118 | 51.39% | 48.14% | D+3.3 | 54.87% | 42.54% | D+12.3 | D |
| 119 | 50.32% | 49.20% | D+1.1 | 55.15% | 42.23% | D+12.9 | R |
| 120 | 52.28% | 46.85% | D+5.4 | 49.21% | 47.52% | D+1.7 | R |
| Total | 50.01% | 49.13% | D+0.9 | 47.82% | 49.02% | R+1.2 | - |
| Source: Daily Kos | |||||||
See also
- Florida's 1st Congressional District election (August 28, 2018 Democratic primary)
- Florida's 1st Congressional District election (August 28, 2018 Republican primary)
- United States House of Representatives elections in Florida, 2018
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
Footnotes
- ↑ Counties could add additional early voting days from October 22 through October 26 and/or November 4.
- ↑ Counties could add additional early voting days from October 22 through October 26 and/or November 4.
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ Republican Liberty Caucus, "Republican Liberty Caucus Endorses John Mills For Congressional District 1 in Florida," July 16, 2018
- ↑ Florida Department of State, "Candidate Listing for 2016 General Election," accessed June 25, 2016
- ↑ Politico, " Florida House Races Results," August 30, 2016
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
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