California's 24th Congressional District election, 2020

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California's 24th Congressional District
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Top-two primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: December 6, 2019
Primary: March 3, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Salud Carbajal (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in California
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
California's 24th Congressional District
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California elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 24th Congressional District of California, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Salud Carbajal won election in the general election for U.S. House California District 24.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
December 6, 2019
March 3, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Democrat Salud Carbajal, who was first elected in 2016.

California's 24th Congressional District is located in the southwestern portion of the state and includes the counties of San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara, as well as western Ventura County.[1]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, California's 24th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 60.7 58.7
Republican candidate Republican Party 36.9 41.3
Difference 23.8 17.4

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

California modified its absentee/mail-in and in-person voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Mail-in ballots were sent to all registered voters in the general election.
  • In-person voting: Counties were authorized to consolidate precincts and defer opening voting centers until the third day before the election.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House California District 24

Incumbent Salud Carbajal defeated Andy Caldwell in the general election for U.S. House California District 24 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Salud Carbajal
Salud Carbajal (D)
 
58.7
 
212,564
Image of Andy Caldwell
Andy Caldwell (R) Candidate Connection
 
41.3
 
149,781

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 362,345
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Nonpartisan primary election

Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 24

Incumbent Salud Carbajal and Andy Caldwell defeated Kenneth Young in the primary for U.S. House California District 24 on March 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Salud Carbajal
Salud Carbajal (D)
 
57.8
 
139,973
✔
Image of Andy Caldwell
Andy Caldwell (R) Candidate Connection
 
38.2
 
92,537
Image of Kenneth Young
Kenneth Young (Independent) Candidate Connection
 
4.0
 
9,650

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 242,160
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

There are no Pivot Counties in California. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won California with 61.7 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 31.6 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, California voted Republican 53.33 percent of the time and Democratic 43.33 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, California voted Democratic all five times. In 2016, California had 55 electoral votes, which was the most of any state. The 55 electoral votes were 10.2 percent of all 538 available electoral votes and were 20.4 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Assembly districts in California. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[2][3]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 58 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 38.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 66 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 40.3 points. Clinton won 11 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 22 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 12.2 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 14 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 13 points.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+7, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 7 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made California's 24th Congressional District the 153rd most Democratic nationally.[4]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.97. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.97 points toward that party.[5]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[6] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[7] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Salud Carbajal Democratic Party $2,156,445 $1,490,231 $1,400,705 As of December 31, 2020
Andy Caldwell Republican Party $1,323,490 $1,288,903 $34,587 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[8]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[9][10][11]

Race ratings: California's 24th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 24th Congressional District candidates in California in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in California, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
California 24th Congressional District All candidates 2,000 Fixed number $1,740.00 1% of annual salary 12/6/2019 Source

District election history

2018

See also: California's 24th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House California District 24

Incumbent Salud Carbajal defeated Justin Fareed in the general election for U.S. House California District 24 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Salud Carbajal
Salud Carbajal (D)
 
58.6
 
166,550
Image of Justin Fareed
Justin Fareed (R)
 
41.4
 
117,881

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 284,431
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Nonpartisan primary election

Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 24

Incumbent Salud Carbajal and Justin Fareed defeated Michael Erin Woody in the primary for U.S. House California District 24 on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Salud Carbajal
Salud Carbajal (D)
 
53.6
 
94,558
✔
Image of Justin Fareed
Justin Fareed (R)
 
36.4
 
64,177
Image of Michael Erin Woody
Michael Erin Woody (R)
 
10.0
 
17,715

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 176,450
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: California's 24th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as a race to watch. Incumbent Lois Capps (D) did not seek re-election in 2016. Salud Carbajal (D) defeated Justin Fareed (R) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Carbajal and Fareed defeated Benjamin Lucas (D), William Ostrander (D), Helene Schneider (D), Katcho Achadjian (R), Matt Kokkonen (R), Steve Isakson (Independent), and John Uebersax (Independent) in the top-two primary on June 7, 2016.[12][13][14]

U.S. House, California District 24 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngSalud Carbajal 53.4% 166,034
     Republican Justin Fareed 46.6% 144,780
Total Votes 310,814
Source: California Secretary of State


U.S. House, California District 24 Primary, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngSalud Carbajal 31.9% 66,402
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJustin Fareed 20.5% 42,521
     Republican Katcho Achadjian 18.1% 37,716
     Democratic Helene Schneider 14.9% 31,046
     Democratic William Ostrander 6.1% 12,657
     Republican Matt Kokkonen 5.6% 11,636
     Independent John Uebersax 1.1% 2,188
     Independent Steve Isakson 1% 2,172
     Democratic Bernjamin Lucas 0.8% 1,568
Total Votes 207,906
Source: California Secretary of State

2014

See also: California's 24th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 24th Congressional District of California held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Lois Capps (D) defeated Chris Mitchum (R) in the general election.

U.S. House, California District 24 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngLois Capps Incumbent 51.9% 103,228
     Republican Chris Mitchum 48.1% 95,566
Total Votes 198,794
Source: California Secretary of State

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ California Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed September 25, 2012
  2. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  3. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  4. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  5. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  6. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  7. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  8. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  9. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  10. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  11. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  12. ↑ California Secretary of State, "Certified List of Candidates for Voter-Nominated Offices June 7, 2016, Presidential Primary Election," accessed April 4, 2016
  13. ↑ The New York Times, "California Primary Results," June 7, 2016
  14. ↑ California Secretary of State, "Statement of Vote," June 7, 2016


California's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Alex Padilla (D)
Adam Schiff (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
Ami Bera (D)
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
Adam Gray (D)
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
Ro Khanna (D)
District 18
District 19
District 20
District 21
Jim Costa (D)
District 22
District 23
District 24
District 25
Raul Ruiz (D)
District 26
District 27
District 28
Judy Chu (D)
District 29
Luz Rivas (D)
District 30
District 31
District 32
District 33
District 34
District 35
District 36
Ted Lieu (D)
District 37
District 38
District 39
District 40
Young Kim (R)
District 41
District 42
District 43
District 44
District 45
District 46
District 47
Dave Min (D)
District 48
District 49
District 50
District 51
District 52
Democratic Party (45)
Republican Party (9)


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