California's 10th Congressional District election, 2020

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California's 10th Congressional District
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Top-two primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: December 6, 2019
Primary: March 3, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Josh Harder (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in California
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Likely Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
California's 10th Congressional District
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California elections, 2020
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All U.S. congressional districts, including the 10th Congressional District of California, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Josh Harder won election in the general election for U.S. House California District 10.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
December 6, 2019
March 3, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Democrat Josh Harder, who was first elected in 2018.


Harder and Howze were the top two finishers from among the six candidates who ran in the March 3, 2020, top-two primary for the district. In the primary, Harder received 44.1% of the vote to Howze's 33.9%. The only other candidate with more than 10% of the vote was Bob Elliott (R). As of the 2020 primary, one Democrat and one Republican had advanced from the district's primary in each congressional election since California's top-two primary system went into effect in 2011.

In February 2019, Harder was named among the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC)'s Frontline program members. DCCC Chairwoman Cheri Bustos said, "Our Majority hinges on these Members from tough seats winning reelection in 2020, and with today’s announcement we’re sending a clear message that the DCCC will stand shoulder to shoulder with them in the fight ahead."[1] The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) named Howze as an "On the Radar" candidate in its Young Guns program in August 2019 but removed him from the program over what it said were unacceptable social media posts on May 20, 2020.[2][3] Howze denied that he had written the posts and said they were written by someone else with access to his social media accounts.[3]

Harder was first elected in 2018, defeating incumbent Jeff Denham (R) 52% to 48%. The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was EVEN, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were within one percentage point of the national average.

The outcome of this race affected partisan control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 117th Congress. All 435 seats in the House were up for election. At the time of the election, Democrats had a 232 to 198 majority over Republicans. The Libertarian Party had one seat. Four seats were vacant. Democrats defended 30 districts Donald Trump (R) won in 2016. Republicans defended five districts Hillary Clinton (D) won in 2016. California's 10th Congressional District is located in the central portion of the state and includes Stanislaus County and southern San Joaquin County.[4]

Independent For more information about the top-two primary, click here.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, California's 10th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 50.3 55.2
Republican candidate Republican Party 47.4 44.8
Difference 2.9 10.4

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

California modified its absentee/mail-in and in-person voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Mail-in ballots were sent to all registered voters in the general election.
  • In-person voting: Counties were authorized to consolidate precincts and defer opening voting centers until the third day before the election.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House California District 10

Incumbent Josh Harder defeated Ted Howze in the general election for U.S. House California District 10 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Josh Harder
Josh Harder (D)
 
55.2
 
166,865
Image of Ted Howze
Ted Howze (R) Candidate Connection
 
44.8
 
135,629

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 302,494
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Nonpartisan primary election

Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 10

The following candidates ran in the primary for U.S. House California District 10 on March 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Josh Harder
Josh Harder (D)
 
44.1
 
69,668
✔
Image of Ted Howze
Ted Howze (R) Candidate Connection
 
33.9
 
53,574
Image of Bob Elliott
Bob Elliott (R)
 
13.0
 
20,481
Image of Mike Barkley
Mike Barkley (D)
 
3.5
 
5,561
Image of Marla Livengood
Marla Livengood (R)
 
3.3
 
5,270
Image of Ryan Blevins
Ryan Blevins (D) Candidate Connection
 
2.2
 
3,536

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 158,090
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

There are no Pivot Counties in California. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won California with 61.7 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 31.6 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, California voted Republican 53.33 percent of the time and Democratic 43.33 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, California voted Democratic all five times. In 2016, California had 55 electoral votes, which was the most of any state. The 55 electoral votes were 10.2 percent of all 538 available electoral votes and were 20.4 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Assembly districts in California. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[5][6]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 58 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 38.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 66 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 40.3 points. Clinton won 11 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 22 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 12.2 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 14 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 13 points.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was EVEN, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were within 1 percentage point of the national average. This made California's 10th Congressional District the 198th most Democratic nationally.[7]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.08. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.08 points toward that party.[8]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[9] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[10] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Josh Harder Democratic Party $7,540,661 $4,091,139 $3,469,763 As of December 31, 2020
Ted Howze Republican Party $1,582,899 $1,878,229 $14,241 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[11]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[12][13][14]

Race ratings: California's 10th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 10th Congressional District candidates in California in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in California, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
California 10th Congressional District All candidates 2,000 Fixed number $1,740.00 1% of annual salary 12/6/2019 Source

District election history

2018

See also: California's 10th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House California District 10

Josh Harder defeated incumbent Jeff Denham in the general election for U.S. House California District 10 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Josh Harder
Josh Harder (D)
 
52.3
 
115,945
Image of Jeff Denham
Jeff Denham (R)
 
47.7
 
105,955

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 221,900
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Nonpartisan primary election

Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 10

The following candidates ran in the primary for U.S. House California District 10 on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Jeff Denham
Jeff Denham (R)
 
37.5
 
45,719
✔
Image of Josh Harder
Josh Harder (D)
 
17.0
 
20,742
Image of Ted Howze
Ted Howze (R)
 
14.6
 
17,723
Image of Michael Eggman
Michael Eggman (D)
 
10.2
 
12,446
Image of Virginia Madueno
Virginia Madueno (D)
 
9.2
 
11,178
Image of Sue Zwahlen
Sue Zwahlen (D)
 
8.2
 
9,945
Image of Mike Barkley
Mike Barkley (D)
 
2.4
 
2,904
Image of Dotty Nygard
Dotty Nygard (D)
 
0.9
 
1,100

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 121,757
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

2016

See also: California's 10th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as a race to watch. Incumbent Jeff Denham (R) defeated Michael Eggman (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Denham and Eggman defeated Robert Hodges (R) and Michael Barkley (D) in the top-two primary on June 7, 2016.[15][16]

U.S. House, California District 10 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJeff Denham Incumbent 51.7% 124,671
     Democratic Michael Eggman 48.3% 116,470
Total Votes 241,141
Source: California Secretary of State


U.S. House, California District 10 Primary, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJeff Denham Incumbent 47.7% 61,290
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngMichael Eggman 27.6% 35,413
     Democratic Michael Barkley 14.5% 18,576
     Republican Robert Hodges 10.2% 13,130
Total Votes 128,409
Source: California Secretary of State

2014

See also: California's 10th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 10th Congressional District of California held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Jeff Denham (R) defeated Michael Eggman (D) in the general election.

U.S. House, California District 10 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJeff Denham Incumbent 56.1% 70,582
     Democratic Michael Eggman 43.9% 55,123
Total Votes 125,705
Source: California Secretary of State

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ DCCC, "Frontline," February 7, 2019
  2. ↑ NRCC, "NRCC Announces 43 “On the Radar” Candidates in First Round of Young Guns Program," August 16, 2019
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 Politico, "GOP leaders rebuke Republican House candidate over insulting social media posts," May 20, 2020
  4. ↑ California Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed September 25, 2012
  5. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  6. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  7. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  8. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  9. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  10. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  11. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  12. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  13. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  14. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  15. ↑ California Secretary of State, "Certified List of Candidates for Voter-Nominated Offices June 7, 2016, Presidential Primary Election," accessed April 4, 2016
  16. ↑ The New York Times, "California Primary Results," June 7, 2016


California's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Alex Padilla (D)
Adam Schiff (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
Ami Bera (D)
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
Adam Gray (D)
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
Ro Khanna (D)
District 18
District 19
District 20
District 21
Jim Costa (D)
District 22
District 23
District 24
District 25
Raul Ruiz (D)
District 26
District 27
District 28
Judy Chu (D)
District 29
Luz Rivas (D)
District 30
District 31
District 32
District 33
District 34
District 35
District 36
Ted Lieu (D)
District 37
District 38
District 39
District 40
Young Kim (R)
District 41
District 42
District 43
District 44
District 45
District 46
District 47
Dave Min (D)
District 48
District 49
District 50
District 51
District 52
Democratic Party (45)
Republican Party (9)


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