State legislative battleground chambers, 2020

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2020 state-level election analysis

State legislatures
Annual Competitiveness Report
Battleground chambers
Open seatsIncumbents defeated
Close racesMargins of victoryFlipped seats
Supermajorities and gubernatorial conflict
Effect of the 2020 elections on redistricting
Pivot Counties by state legislative district

Statewide analysis
State government trifectas
Trifecta vulnerability
Officials seeking other offices
Incumbent win rates
Noteworthy third party candidates

Other 2020 analysis
Federal election analysis
Local election analysis

Last updated: December 9, 2020

Eighty-six state legislative chambers held regularly-scheduled elections in 2020. Ballotpedia identified 24 of those chambers as state legislative battlegrounds. Heading into the 2020 elections, Republicans controlled 15 battleground chambers and Democrats controlled eight. Control of the Alaska House of Representatives was split under a power-sharing agreement, although Republicans had a 21-15 majority.

In 2018, 87 state legislative chambers held regularly-scheduled elections. Ballotpedia identified 22 of those chambers as battlegrounds. Democrats gained control of six Republican-held battleground chambers (the Colorado State Senate, Maine State Senate, Minnesota House of Representatives, New Hampshire State Senate, New Hampshire House of Representatives, and New York State Senate). Republicans entered into a power-sharing agreement in the Alaska House of Representatives, which had previously been under control of the Democratic minority.

Ballotpedia identified the following state legislative chambers as 2020 battlegrounds:

Overview

Of the 86 chambers that held regularly-scheduled elections in 2020, Ballotpedia identified 24 battleground chambers in 17 states. We anticipated that these chambers would be more competitive overall and had the potential to see major shifts in party control. Four of those chambers (the Arizona House of Representatives, Georgia State Senate, Georgia House of Representatives, and Nebraska State Senate) were not battleground chambers at any point in the preceding decade.

The columns in the chart below list the following:

  • Seats up in 2020: This was the number of seats that were up for election in 2020.
  • Margin: This was the difference in seats between the majority and minority parties.
  • Majority share of seats: This was the percentage of the chamber's seats controlled by the majority party.
  • Last time party control changed: This was the election where the majority at the time of the 2020 elections took control of the chamber.
State legislative battleground chambers, 2020
Chamber Seats up in 2020 Margin Majority share of seats Last time party control changed
Alaska House of Representatives*
All 40
R+7
55%
2018
Arizona State Senate
All 30
R+4
57%
2002
Arizona House of Representatives
All 60
R+2
52%
1966
Colorado State Senate
18 out of 35
D+3
54%
2018
Delaware State Senate
11 out of 21
D+3
57%
1974
Florida State Senate
20 out of 40
R+6
58%
1994
Georgia State Senate
All 56
R+14
63%
2002
Georgia House of Representatives
All 180
R+31
58%
2004
Iowa House of Representatives
All 100
R+6
53%
2016
Maine State Senate
All 35
D+7
60%
2018
Maine House of Representatives
All 151
D+31
58%
2012
Michigan House of Representatives
All 110
R+7
53%
2010
Minnesota State Senate
All 67
R+3
52%
2016
Minnesota House of Representatives
All 134
D+16
56%
2018
Nebraska State Senate
25 out of 49
R+12
61%
--[1]
Nevada State Senate
10 out of 21
D+5
62%
2016
New Hampshire State Senate
All 24
D+4
58%
2018
New Hampshire House of Representatives
All 400
D+75
58%
2018
North Carolina State Senate
All 50
R+8
58%
2010
North Carolina House of Representatives
All 120
R+10
54%
2010
Pennsylvania State Senate
25 out of 50
R+7
56%
1994
Pennsylvania House of Representatives
All 203
R+17
54%
2010
Texas House of Representatives
All 150
R+16
55%
2002
West Virginia State Senate
17 out of 34
R+6
59%
2014

*The Alaska House was under a power sharing agreement, although Republicans held more seats.


State-by-state breakdown

This section gives an overview of each of the 23 battleground chambers in 2020 and explains what criteria each chamber met to make our list.

Why were these chambers highlighted?

Ballotpedia’s approach to determining what is and is not a battleground chamber relied on a series of criteria, with exceptions made in specific outlying cases. Ballotpedia scored the competitiveness of each state legislative chamber holding elections in 2020, with each of the following criteria being worth 1 point:

  • Three or fewer seats needed to flip to change control of the chamber.
  • 15% or less of the seats up for election in 2020 needed to flip to change control of the chamber.
  • 15% or more of the seats up for election in 2020 were decided by a margin of 10% or less the last time they were up for election.
  • 10% or more of the seats up for election in 2020 changed partisan control the last time they were up for election.
  • The number of seats up for election in 2020 that changed partisan control the last time they were up was greater than the number of seats that needed to flip to change control of the chamber.
  • The chamber was a battleground chamber in 2018.
  • A battleground gubernatorial election took place in the same state in 2020.
  • The chamber flipped two or more times between 2010 and 2020.

These criteria were combined with the Cook Political Report's state legislative race ratings.[2]

Cross filed Republican Party/Democratic Party Alaska House

Republican Party Arizona Senate

Republican Party Arizona House

Democratic Party Colorado Senate

Democratic Party Delaware Senate

Republican Party Florida Senate

Republican Party Georgia Senate

Republican Party Georgia House

Republican Party Iowa House

Democratic Party Maine Senate

Democratic Party Maine House

Republican Party Michigan House

Republican Party Minnesota Senate

Democratic Party Minnesota House

Republican Party Nebraska Senate


Democratic Party Nevada Senate

Democratic Party New Hampshire Senate

Democratic Party New Hampshire House

Republican Party North Carolina Senate

Republican Party North Carolina House

Republican Party Pennsylvania Senate


Republican Party Pennsylvania House

Republican Party Texas House

Republican Party West Virginia Senate

Political context

The 2020 state legislative elections took place in the context of significant Republican gains in state legislatures between 2010 and 2017 and a swing back towards Democratic control in 2018. Between 2010 and 2017, Democrats lost a net 968 seats across the country's 99 state legislative chambers. Democrats gained a net 308 seats in the 2018 state legislative elections. In the 2019 elections, Republicans gained a net 12 seats while Democrats gained a net one seat. Democrats flipped two legislative chambers.

Heading into the 2020 elections, Republicans held 21 state government trifectas to Democrats' 15, majority control of 59 state legislative chambers to Democrats' 39, and control of 26 governors' offices to Democrats' 24.

Changes in chamber partisan control, 2010 to 2019

See also: Partisan composition of state legislatures

Prior to the 2010 elections, Democrats controlled 60 of the country's 99 state legislative chambers, Republicans controlled 37, and two chambers were not controlled by either party. In the six years that followed, Republicans made significant gains and took control of many of the chambers that were previously held by Democrats. After the 2016 elections, Democrats controlled 31 chambers and Republicans controlled 68.

In the 2017, 2018, and 2019 elections, Democrats increased their number of state legislative chambers to 39, and Republicans saw their number of chambers fall to 59. Control of one chamber, the Alaska House of Representatives, was split between the parties.

From 2010 to 2019, there were 63 instances where a state legislative chamber changed partisan control. Of these 63 changes, 42 involved a chamber changing from Democratic to Republican control and 17 involved a chamber changing from Republican to Democratic control. The other four involved chambers that were split between the two parties (Oregon House in 2010 and 2012; Montana House in 2010; Alaska House in 2018).

Most of the changes came during major elections but some also came through special elections (Louisiana House in 2010; Washington Senate in 2017) and party switching (Louisiana House in 2010; Mississippi Senate in 2011). In some cases, the party that gained control did not have a numerical majority but instead controlled the chamber through a bipartisan coalition (i.e., Alaska House in 2016). This table does not account for changes in party control or ties in a chamber that lasted for less than one year and were not the result of a regularly scheduled election. An example of this is the brief period of Democratic control in the Virginia State Senate in 2014.[34]

From 2010 to 2019, 40 chambers switched control: 24 switched control once, 12 switched control twice, one switched control three times, and three switched control four times.

For this chart, a red box indicates that the chamber flipped from Democratic to Republican control, and a blue box indicates that the chamber flipped from Republican to Democratic control.[35]

Chamber changes in partisan control: 2010-2019
Party changes in 2010 Party changes in 2011 Party changes in 2012 Party changes in 2014 Party changes in 2016 Party changes in 2017 Party changes in 2018 Party changes in 2019
Alabama Senate Louisiana Senate[36][37] Alaska Senate Colorado Senate Alaska House Washington Senate Alaska House[38] Virginia House
Alabama House Mississippi Senate[39][40] Arkansas Senate Maine Senate Iowa Senate Colorado Senate Virginia Senate
Colorado House Mississippi House Arkansas House Minnesota House Kentucky House Maine Senate
Indiana House Virginia Senate[41] Colorado House Nevada Senate Minnesota Senate Minnesota House
Iowa House Maine Senate Nevada House Nevada Senate New Hampshire House
Louisiana House[42][43] Maine House New Hampshire House Nevada House New Hampshire Senate
Maine Senate Minnesota Senate New Mexico House New Mexico House New York Senate
Maine House Minnesota House West Virginia Senate
Michigan House New Hampshire House West Virginia House
Minnesota Senate Oregon House[44]
Minnesota House Washington Senate
Montana House[45]
New Hampshire Senate
New Hampshire House
New York Senate
North Carolina Senate
North Carolina House
Ohio House
Oregon House[46]
Pennsylvania House
Wisconsin Senate
Wisconsin House
Total changes: 22 Total changes: 4 Total changes: 11 Total changes: 9 Total changes: 7 Total changes: 1 Total changes: 7 Total changes: 2

The chart below shows how many chambers each party controlled after the November elections in a given year.

Partisan control of state legislative chambers: 2010-2019
Election Democratic chambers Republican chambers Other
Before 2010 60 37 2
2010 38 59 2
2011 35 60 4
2012 41 56 2
2013 41 56 2
2014 30 68 1
2015 30 68 1
2016 31 68 0
2017 32 67 0
2018 37 61 1
2019 39 59 1

State legislatures and presidents

First midterms

Heading into the 2020 election, the Republican Party was coming off a substantial loss of seats during an even-year election for the first time in more than a decade. Republicans across the country collectively lost 349 seats during the 2018 state legislative elections and 2017 state legislative elections, marking the third time during the last four presidencies that the party of the sitting president--Donald Trump (R) in this case--lost seats during that president's first midterm election. Democrats lost 702 seats during Barack Obama's (D) first midterm and 488 seats during Bill Clinton's (D) first midterm. Only George W. Bush (R) saw a net gain of seats during his first midterm with Republicans winning 110 seats.




Two-term presidents

It is normal for a party to lose ground in state legislatures when their party controls the presidency for two terms. Between the time of Franklin Roosevelt (D) and George W. Bush (R), the political party of the president lost, on average, 450 state legislative seats while holding the White House. The losses that the Democratic Party sustained under Barack Obama (D), however, were exceptional, rivaled only by the terms of Richard Nixon (R) and Dwight Eisenhower (R), when Republicans lost 800 and 843 seats, respectively.

Trifectas from 2010 to 2019

See also: State government trifectas

A state government trifecta occurs when one political party controls the primary levers of power in a state: the governor's office, the state Senate, and the state House. From 2010 to 2018, the Republican Party increased its number of trifectas and the Democratic Party saw a decline in its trifectas. However, Democrats picked up six trifectas in the 2018 elections, and Republicans lost four trifectas. In the 2019 elections, Democrats gained one trifecta and Republicans lost one.

This chart shows the number of trifectas each party held heading into elections from 2010 to 2018, and the number of trifectas following the 2019 elections.

Trifectas by year: 2010-2018
Election Democratic trifectas Republican trifectas States under divided government
Pre-2010 elections 17 10 23
Pre-2012 elections 11 22 17
Pre-2014 elections 12 24 14
Pre-2016 elections 7 23 20
Pre-2018 elections 8 26 16
Post-2018 elections 14 22 14
Post-2019 elections 16 21 13


Click on the map below to see the trifecta status of different states following elections from 2010 to 2018.

Current state government trifectas

State government trifectas, post-2024 elections

State government trifectas, pre-2022 elections

State government trifectas, post-2020 elections

State government trifectas, pre-2020 elections

State government trifectas, post-2018 elections

State government trifectas, pre-2018 elections

State government trifectas, post-2016 elections

State government trifectas, pre-2016 elections

State government trifectas, pre-2014

State government trifectas, pre-2012

State government trifectas, pre-2010

Learn more about Ballotpedia's analyses of trifectas and state governments

See also

Footnotes

  1. Nebraska's state legislature is officially nonpartisan.
  2. A rating of toss-up was worth three points, a leans rating was worth two points, and a likely rating was worth one point. Any chamber scoring five or more points was considered a battleground chamber. Seven exceptions were made to this rule. The Delaware State Senate, Georgia State Senate, Georgia House of Representatives, Nebraska State Senate, Pennsylvania State Senate, and West Virginia State Senate were added to the battleground list, while the Texas House of Representatives was removed.
  3. Anchorage Daily News, "A coalition majority is necessary to break deadlock, Alaska House members say," January 29, 2019
  4. The Cook Political Report, "July Update: Handicapping the 2020 State Legislature Races," July 22, 2020
  5. 17 Democrats, three Republicans, and two independents formed a 22-member governing coalition.
  6. 15 Democrats, six Republicans, and two independents formed a 23-member governing coalition. One independent was Bryce Edgmon who switched his affiliation from Democratic to unenrolled after the election.
  7. 15 Democrats, two Republicans, and four independents formed a 21-member governing coalition. Two Republicans did not join either caucus.
  8. 19 Republicans, two Democrats, and two independents formed a 23-member governing coalition.
  9. 14 Democrats, five independents, and two Republicans formed a 21-member governing coalition.
  10. Four independents, one undeclared
  11. The Cook Political Report, "July Update: Handicapping the 2020 State Legislature Races," July 22, 2020
  12. The Cook Political Report, "July Update: Handicapping the 2020 State Legislature Races," July 22, 2020
  13. The Cook Political Report, "July Update: Handicapping the 2020 State Legislature Races," July 22, 2020
  14. The Cook Political Report, "July Update: Handicapping the 2020 State Legislature Races," July 22, 2020
  15. The Cook Political Report, "July Update: Handicapping the 2020 State Legislature Races," July 22, 2020
  16. The Cook Political Report, "July Update: Handicapping the 2020 State Legislature Races," July 22, 2020
  17. The Cook Political Report, "July Update: Handicapping the 2020 State Legislature Races," July 22, 2020
  18. The Cook Political Report, "July Update: Handicapping the 2020 State Legislature Races," July 22, 2020
  19. The Cook Political Report, "July Update: Handicapping the 2020 State Legislature Races," July 22, 2020
  20. The Cook Political Report, "July Update: Handicapping the 2020 State Legislature Races," July 22, 2020
  21. The Cook Political Report, "July Update: Handicapping the 2020 State Legislature Races," July 22, 2020
  22. The Cook Political Report, "July Update: Handicapping the 2020 State Legislature Races," July 22, 2020
  23. The Cook Political Report, "July Update: Handicapping the 2020 State Legislature Races," July 22, 2020
  24. Nebraska Legislature, "History of the Nebraska Unicameral," accessed February 9, 2021
  25. The Cook Political Report, "July Update: Handicapping the 2020 State Legislature Races," July 22, 2020
  26. The Cook Political Report, "July Update: Handicapping the 2020 State Legislature Races," July 22, 2020
  27. The Cook Political Report, "July Update: Handicapping the 2020 State Legislature Races," July 22, 2020
  28. The Cook Political Report, "July Update: Handicapping the 2020 State Legislature Races," July 22, 2020
  29. The Cook Political Report, "July Update: Handicapping the 2020 State Legislature Races," July 22, 2020
  30. The Cook Political Report, "July Update: Handicapping the 2020 State Legislature Races," July 22, 2020
  31. The Cook Political Report, "July Update: Handicapping the 2020 State Legislature Races," July 22, 2020
  32. The Cook Political Report, "July Update: Handicapping the 2020 State Legislature Races," July 22, 2020
  33. The Cook Political Report, "July Update: Handicapping the 2020 State Legislature Races," July 22, 2020
  34. The Washington Post, "Virginia Republicans snatched control of the state Senate, ended budget-Medicaid impasse," June 9, 2014
  35. 2015 and 2013 are not included because no chambers flipped those years.
  36. The chamber first changed from Democratic to Republican control in a February 2011 special election. Republicans increased their majority to 24-15 in the 2011 elections.
  37. Fox News, "GOP Candidate Wins Lousiana [sic] Senate Special Election, Shifting Majority," February 20, 2011
  38. Chamber went from being controlled by a Democratic-led bipartisan coalition to being led by a coalition with power split between the parties.
  39. The chamber changed partisan control prior to the 2011 elections due to Democrats switching to the Republican Party and special election wins by Republicans. Republicans increased their majority in the 2011 elections to 31-21.
  40. The Washington Post, "Southern Democrats in dire straits; 2011 looms large," January 11, 2011
  41. In the 2011 elections, the chamber changed from a 22-18 Democratic advantage to a 20-20 tie. Republicans effectively controlled the chamber because Lieutenant Gov. Bill Bolling (R) could cast tie-breaking votes.
  42. This chamber did not hold elections in 2010. It switched partisan control in December 2010 when Democrat Noble Ellington changed his party affiliation to Republican. In the regularly-scheduled 2011 elections, Republicans increased their majority to 58-45.
  43. Nola.com, "Louisiana Republicans take first House majority since Reconstruction with latest party switch," December 17, 2010
  44. In this election, the Oregon House changed from a 30-30 tie to a 34-26 Democratic advantage.
  45. This chamber went from a 50-50 tie to a 68-32 Republican advantage in the 2010 elections.
  46. This chamber went from a 36-24 Democratic advantage to a 30-30 tie in the 2010 elections.