Presidential election in Tennessee, 2024
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|
2024 presidential election |
Democratic primary: March 5, 2024 |
Republican primary: March 5, 2024 |
Electoral College: Eleven votes |
Former President Donald Trump (R) won the presidential election in Tennessee on November 5, 2024. Trump won the 2024 presidential election with 312 electoral votes to Vice President Kamala Harris' (D) 226.
The Democratic and Republican Parties held primary elections on March 5, 2024.[1] Joe Biden (D) won the Democratic primary, and Donald Trump (R) won the Republican primary.
Tennessee was one of four states (alongside Arizona, Indiana, and Massachusetts) with 11 votes in the Electoral College, making it tied for 14th-most. Tennessee was carried by the Republican presidential nominee in every election between 2000 and 2020; the last Democrat to carry the state was Bill Clinton (D). Between 1900 and 2020, Tennessee was carried by the Republican presidential candidate in 51.6% of elections and by the Democratic candidate in 48.4%.
This page includes the following sections:
- Candidates and election results
- Information about voting in Tennessee
- Race ratings, polling, and prediction markets
- Previous presidential election results in Tennessee and analysis
- Effect of the 2020 census on electoral votes
- Presidential election endorsements in Tennessee
- Details about Tennessee's Democratic primary
- Details about Tennessee's Republican primary
- Candidate filing requirements in Tennessee
- About Tennessee
- Presidential election by state
Candidates and election results
General election
Candidate/Running mate |
% |
Popular votes |
Electoral votes |
||
| ✔ |
| Donald Trump/J.D. Vance (R) |
64.2
|
1,966,865 | 11 |
|
| Kamala D. Harris/Tim Walz (D) |
34.5
|
1,056,265 | 0 | |
|
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr./Nicole Shanahan (Independent) |
0.7
|
21,535 | 0 | |
|
| Jill Stein/Samson LeBeau Kpadenou (Independent) |
0.3
|
8,967 | 0 | |
|
| Jay Bowman/De Bowman (Independent) |
0.2
|
5,865 | 0 | |
|
| Claudia De La Cruz/Karina Garcia (Independent) |
0.1
|
3,457 | 0 | |
 | Rachele Fruit/Dennis Richter (Independent) |
0.0
|
988 | 0 | |
| Total votes: 3,063,942 |
Primary election
Candidate |
% |
Votes |
Pledged delegates |
|
|
| Joe Biden |
92.1
|
122,803 | 63 |
| Other |
7.9
|
10,475 | 0 | |
| Total votes: 133,278 • Total pledged delegates: 63 |
Candidate |
% |
Votes |
Pledged delegates |
|
|
| Donald Trump |
77.3
|
446,850 | 58 |
|
| Nikki Haley |
19.5
|
112,958 | 0 |
|
| Ron DeSantis |
1.4
|
7,947 | 0 |
|
| Chris Christie |
0.3
|
1,874 | 0 |
|
| Vivek Ramaswamy |
0.3
|
1,714 | 0 |
|
| Ryan Binkley |
0.1
|
722 | 0 |
|
| Asa Hutchinson |
0.1
|
533 | 0 |
|
| David James Stuckenberg |
0.1
|
352 | 0 |
| Other |
0.8
|
4,884 | 0 | |
| Total votes: 577,834 • Total pledged delegates: 58 |
Voting information
- See also: Voting in Tennessee
Race ratings, polling, and prediction markets
Race ratings
The map below displays presidential race ratings in each state. These ratings are generated by averaging the ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean and Tilt ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[2][3][4]
Polling
The chart below displays national polling averages for the 2024 presidential election from RealClearPolitics.
Prediction markets
The section below displays national PredictIt share prices and RealClearPolitics prediction market averages for the 2024 presidential election.
What is a prediction market?
Prediction markets allow users to purchase shares relating to the outcome of events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. For instance, an election contested between four candidates would be represented by eight separate contracts, with each contract correlating to a particular candidate winning or losing the election.
The share price in each individual forecast rises and falls based on market demand. Once the event's outcome is decided, holders of shares that correlate with the correct outcome receive a payout for each share they held.
For example, a user buys 10 shares at 20 cents each in a presidential primary saying Candidate A will win. If Candidate A wins the election, the user earns $10. If the candidate loses, the user earns no money and loses his original $2 investment.
Why do prediction markets matter?
Prediction markets can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections. Microsoft Research economist David Rothschild argued that they are better suited to the task than polls: "I can create a poll that can mimic everything about a prediction market...except markets have a way of incentivizing you to come back at 2 a.m. and update your answer."[5][6][7]
PredictIt
The chart below shows 2024 presidential general election open share prices over time.[8]
Previous presidential election results and analysis
Tennessee presidential election results (1900-2020)
Scroll to the right in the box below to view more recent presidential election results.
- 15 Democratic wins
- 16 Republican wins
| Year | 1900 | 1904 | 1908 | 1912 | 1916 | 1920 | 1924 | 1928 | 1932 | 1936 | 1940 | 1944 | 1948 | 1952 | 1956 | 1960 | 1964 | 1968 | 1972 | 1976 | 1980 | 1984 | 1988 | 1992 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winning Party | D | D | D | D | D | R | D | R | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | D | R | R | D | R | R | R | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R |
Below is an analysis of Tennessee's voting record in presidential elections. The state's accuracy is based on the number of times a state has voted for a winning presidential candidate. The majority of statistical data is from the U.S. National Archives and Records Administration and was compiled, here, by Ballotpedia, unless otherwise noted.
Between 1900 and 2020:
- Tennessee participated in 31 presidential elections.
- Tennessee voted for the winning presidential candidate 74.2 percent of the time. The average accuracy of voting for winning presidential candidates for all 50 states in this time frame was 71.26 percent.[9]
- Tennessee voted Democratic 48.4 percent of the time and Republican 51.6 percent of the time.
Recent statewide results
2020
General election
Candidate/Running mate |
% |
Popular votes |
Electoral votes |
||
| ✔ |
| Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R) |
60.7
|
1,852,475 | 11 |
|
| Joe Biden/Kamala D. Harris (D) |
37.5
|
1,143,711 | 0 | |
|
| Jo Jorgensen/Spike Cohen (Independent) |
1.0
|
29,877 | 0 | |
|
| Ye/Michelle Tidball (Independent) |
0.3
|
10,279 | 0 | |
|
| Don Blankenship/William Mohr (Independent) |
0.2
|
5,365 | 0 | |
|
| Howie Hawkins/Angela Nicole Walker (Independent) |
0.1
|
4,545 | 0 | |
|
| Alyson Kennedy/Malcolm Jarrett (Independent) |
0.1
|
2,576 | 0 | |
|
| Gloria La Riva/Sunil Freeman (Independent) |
0.1
|
2,301 | 0 | |
|
| Roque De La Fuente/Darcy Richardson (Independent) |
0.1
|
1,860 | 0 | |
| Other write-in votes |
0.0
|
862 | 0 | ||
| Total votes: 3,053,851 |
Primary election
Candidate |
% |
Votes |
Pledged delegates |
|
|
| Joe Biden |
41.7
|
215,390 | 36 |
|
| Bernie Sanders |
25.0
|
129,168 | 22 |
|
| Michael Bloomberg |
15.5
|
79,789 | 5 |
|
| Elizabeth Warren |
10.4
|
53,732 | 1 |
|
| Pete Buttigieg |
3.3
|
17,102 | 0 |
|
| Amy Klobuchar |
2.1
|
10,671 | 0 |
|
| Tulsi Gabbard |
0.4
|
2,278 | 0 |
|
| Thomas Steyer |
0.4
|
1,932 | 0 |
|
| Michael Bennet |
0.3
|
1,650 | 0 |
|
| Andrew Yang |
0.2
|
1,097 | 0 |
|
| Cory Booker |
0.2
|
953 | 0 |
|
| Marianne Williamson |
0.1
|
498 | 0 |
|
| John Delaney |
0.1
|
378 | 0 |
|
| Julián Castro |
0.0
|
239 | 0 |
|
| Deval Patrick |
0.0
|
182 | 0 |
| Other |
0.2
|
1,191 | 0 | |
| Total votes: 516,250 • Total pledged delegates: 64 |
Candidate |
% |
Votes |
Pledged delegates |
|
|
| Donald Trump |
96.5
|
384,266 | 58 |
|
| Joe Walsh |
1.0
|
4,178 | 0 |
|
| Bill Weld |
1.0
|
3,922 | 0 |
| Other |
1.5
|
5,948 | 0 | |
| Total votes: 398,314 • Total pledged delegates: 58 |
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Recent county-level results
How a state's counties vote in a presidential election and the size of those counties can provide additional insights into election outcomes at other levels of government including statewide and congressional races. Below, four categories are used to describe each county's voting pattern over the 2012, 2016, and 2020 presidential elections: Solid, Trending, Battleground, and New. Click [show] on the table below for examples:
| County-level voting pattern categories | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | |||||||
| Status | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 | ||||
| Solid Democratic | D | D | D | ||||
| Trending Democratic | R | D | D | ||||
| Battleground Democratic | D | R | D | ||||
| New Democratic | R | R | D | ||||
| Republican | |||||||
| Status | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 | ||||
| Solid Republican | R | R | R | ||||
| Trending Republican | D | R | R | ||||
| Battleground Republican | R | D | R | ||||
| New Republican | D | D | R | ||||
Following the 2020 presidential election, 75.6% of Tennesseans lived in one of the state's 91 Solid Republican counties, which voted for the Republican presidential candidate in every election from 2012 to 2020, and 24.1% lived in one of three Solid Democratic counties: Davidson, Haywood, and Shelby. Overall, Tennessee was Solid Republican, having voted for Mitt Romney (R) in 2012, Donald Trump (R) in 2016, and Donald Trump (R) in 2020. Use the table below to view the total number of each type of county in Tennessee following the 2020 election as well as the overall percentage of the state population located in each county type.
| Tennessee county-level statistics, 2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solid Republican | 91 | 75.6% | |||||
| Solid Democratic | 3 | 24.1% | |||||
| Trending Republican | 1 | 0.4% | |||||
| Total voted Democratic | 3 | 24.1% | |||||
| Total voted Republican | 92 | 75.9% | |||||
Presidential elections by state decided by 5 percentage points or less
The following map shows the number of times, in presidential elections held between 1948 and 2020, that the margin of victory was 5 percentage points or fewer in each state.
- Wisconsin was the state with the most frequently narrow margins during this time period, appearing on the list in 11 presidential elections.
- Three states appeared nine times: Florida, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.
- The state with the narrowest margin of victory was Florida in 2000 at 537 votes or one-hundredth of a percentage point.
Effect of the 2020 census on electoral votes
Every ten years, the United States conducts the census, a complete count of the U.S. population. The data gleaned from the census process is used to determine several things, including legislative district lines, a state's number of U.S. House representatives, and the number of votes a state has in the Electoral College.
The 2024 presidential election was the first presidential election to take place using the electoral vote counts produced by the 2020 census. Six states gained votes in the Electoral College, while seven states lost votes. See the table below for exact figures.
| Electoral votes gained and lost after the 2020 census | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| State | Votes gained (new total) | State | Votes lost (new total) |
| Texas | +2 (40) | California | -1 (54) |
| Colorado | +1 (10) | Illinois | -1 (19) |
| Florida | +1 (30) | Michigan | -1 (15) |
| Montana | +1 (4) | New York | -1 (28) |
| North Carolina | +1 (16) | Ohio | -1 (17) |
| Oregon | +1 (8) | Pennsylvania | -1 (19) |
| West Virginia | -1 (4) | ||
Presidential election endorsements in Tennessee
- See also: Presidential election endorsements, 2024
The section below displays current and former party leaders, governors and other state executives, members of Congress, mayors of large cities, and state legislative majority and minority leaders in Tennessee who issued an endorsement in the 2024 presidential election. See something we missed? Email us.
| Presidential endorsements by Tennessee elected officials and party leaders, 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | State | Party | Candidate | Date |
| Marsha Blackburn | TN | Republican Party | Donald Trump | April 17, 2023 source |
| Bill Hagerty | TN | Republican Party | Donald Trump | April 16, 2023 source |
| Steve Cohen | TN | Democratic Party | Kamala D. Harris | July 21, 2024 source |
| Scott DesJarlais | TN | Republican Party | Donald Trump | February 26, 2024 source |
| Charles J. Fleischmann | TN | Republican Party | Donald Trump | February 7, 2023 source |
| Mark Green | TN | Republican Party | Donald Trump | April 17, 2023 source |
| Diana Harshbarger | TN | Republican Party | Donald Trump | April 17, 2023 source |
| David Kustoff | TN | Republican Party | Donald Trump | January 4, 2024 source |
| Andy Ogles | TN | Republican Party | Donald Trump | May 5, 2023 source |
| John Rose | TN | Republican Party | Donald Trump | April 15, 2023 source |
| Bill Lee | TN | Republican Party | Donald Trump | March 5, 2024 source |
Democratic primary
- See also: Democratic presidential nomination, 2024
The Democratic Party selected Vice President Kamala Harris (D) as its nominee during a virtual roll call vote on August 2, 2024, ahead of the in-person 2024 Democratic National Convention, which took place from August 19-22, 2024, in Chicago, Illinois.[15][16][17][18][19]
Joe Biden (D) withdrew from the presidential race on July 21, 2024.[20] Biden crossed the majority delegate threshold necessary to win the Democratic nomination on March 12, 2024, which made him the presumptive Democratic nominee.
Before the national convention, individual state caucuses and primaries were held to allocate convention delegates. To read more about the 2024 primary schedule click here. These delegates, along with superdelegates who come from the party leadership, voted at the virtual roll call to select the nominee.
Republican primary
- See also: Republican presidential nomination, 2024
The Republican Party selected former President Donald Trump (R) as its 2024 presidential nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention, which was held from July 15-18, 2024, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Before the convention, each state, Washington, D.C., and five U.S. territories held a primary, caucus, or convention to decide how to allocate delegates at the national convention. These nominating events began in January and ended in June. Trump crossed the delegate threshold necessary to win the nomination—1,215—on March 12, 2024.
Republican presidential candidates participated in five primary debates, with the first being held held in August 2023 and the last in January 2024.[24] Trump did not participate in any of the debates.
Trump was the sixth U.S. president to run for re-election to non-consecutive terms.[25] Grover Cleveland (D), the 22nd and 24th president of the United States, is the only president who has been elected to non-consecutive terms. Before Trump's 2024 campaign, the most recent former president to run for non-consecutive terms was Theodore Roosevelt (R), who sought re-election in 1912 as a Progressive Party candidate after leaving office in 1909.
Candidate filing requirements
The tables below detail filing requirements for presidential candidates in Tennessee in the 2024 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Tennessee, click here.
Presidential primary candidates
| Filing requirements for presidential primary candidates in Tennessee, 2024 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Party | Signatures required | Signature formula | Filing fee | Filing fee formula | Filing deadline | Source |
| Tennessee | Qualified parties | 2,500 | Fixed by statute | N/A | N/A | 12/5/2023 | Source |
Independent presidential candidates
| Filing requirements for independent candidates in Tennessee, 2024 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Signatures required | Signature formula | Filing fee | Filing fee formula | Filing deadline | Source |
| Tennessee | 275 | Fixed by statute | N/A | N/A | 8/15/2024 | Source |
About the state
Click the tabs below to view information about demographics, past elections, and partisan control of the state.
- Statewide elections - Information about recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections in the state.
- State partisanship - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.
- Demographics - Information about the state's demographics and how they compare to the country as a whole.
This section details the results of the five most recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections held in the state.
U.S. Senate elections
The table below details the vote in the five most recent U.S. Senate races in Tennessee.
| U.S. Senate election results in Tennessee | ||
|---|---|---|
| Race | Winner | Runner up |
| 2020 | 62.2% |
35.2% |
| 2018 | 54.7% |
43.9% |
| 2014 | 61.9% |
31.9% |
| 2012 | 64.9% |
30.4% |
| 2008 | 65.1% |
31.6% |
| Average | 61.8 | 34.6 |
Gubernatorial elections
- See also: Governor of Tennessee
The table below details the vote in the five most recent gubernatorial elections in Tennessee.
| Gubernatorial election results in Tennessee | ||
|---|---|---|
| Race | Winner | Runner up |
| 2022 | 64.9% |
32.9% |
| 2018 | 59.6% |
38.5% |
| 2014 | 70.3% |
22.8% |
| 2010 | 65.0% |
33.1% |
| 2006 | 68.6% |
29.7% |
| Average | 62.8 | 34.3 |
Congressional delegation
The table below displays the partisan composition of Tennessee's congressional delegation as of May 2024.
| Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Tennessee | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | U.S. Senate | U.S. House | Total |
| Democratic | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Republican | 2 | 8 | 10 |
| Independent | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vacancies | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 2 | 9 | 11 |
State executive
The table below displays the officeholders in Tennessee's top three state executive offices as of May 2024.
| State executive officials in Tennessee, May 2024 | |
|---|---|
| Office | Officeholder |
| Governor | |
| Secretary of State | |
| Attorney General | |
State legislature
Tennessee State Senate
| Party | As of February 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 6 | |
| Republican Party | 27 | |
| Other | 0 | |
| Vacancies | 0 | |
| Total | 33 | |
Tennessee House of Representatives
| Party | As of February 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 24 | |
| Republican Party | 75 | |
| Independent | 0 | |
| Other | 0 | |
| Vacancies | 0 | |
| Total | 99 | |
Trifecta control
The table below shows the state's trifecta status from 1992 until the 2024 election.
Tennessee Party Control: 1992-2024
Five years of Democratic trifectas • Fourteen years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| Senate | D | D | D | D | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | S | S | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| House | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
The table below details demographic data in Tennessee and compares it to the broader United States as of 2022.
| Demographic Data for Tennessee | ||
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | United States | |
| Population | 6,910,840 | 331,449,281 |
| Land area (sq mi) | 41,224 | 3,531,905 |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White | 74.9% | 65.9% |
| Black/African American | 16.3% | 12.5% |
| Asian | 1.9% | 5.8% |
| Native American | 0.2% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Two or more | 4.7% | 8.8% |
| Hispanic/Latino | 6% | 18.7% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate | 89.3% | 89.1% |
| College graduation rate | 29.7% | 34.3% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income | $64,035 | $75,149 |
| Persons below poverty level | 10% | 8.8% |
| Source: population provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "Decennial Census" (2020). Other figures provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2017-2022). | ||
| **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. | ||
Presidential election by state
- See also: Presidential election by state, 2024
Click on a state below to navigate to information about the presidential election in that jurisdiction.
See also
Use the dropdown menu below to navigate Ballotpedia's historical coverage of the presidential election in each state.
Footnotes
- ↑ Tennessee Secretary of State, "Key Dates for the 2024 Election Cycle," accessed May 15, 2023
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ Nature, "The power of prediction markets," October 18, 2016
- ↑ Politico, "Meet the 'stock market' for politics," October 31, 2014
- ↑ U.S. Presidential General Election Results, "2008 Electoral Map Based on the Intrade Prediction Market," accessed January 25, 2018
- ↑ PredictIt, "Who will win the 2024 US presidential election?" accessed December 16, 2022
- ↑ This average includes states like Arizona, New Mexico, and Oklahoma, which did not participate in all 30 presidential elections between 1900 and 2020. It does not include Washington, D.C., which cast votes for president for the first time in 1964, or Alaska and Hawaii, which cast votes for president for the first time in 1960.
- ↑ U.S. Election Atlas, "2012 Presidential Election Results," accessed December 29, 2014
- ↑ U.S. Election Atlas, "2008 Presidential Election Results," accessed December 29, 2014
- ↑ Tennessee Secretary of State, "Key Dates for the 2024 Election Cycle," accessed May 15, 2023
- ↑ The Green Papers, "Tennessee Democrat," accessed May 15, 2023
- ↑ The Green Papers, "Tennessee Democrat," accessed May 15, 2023
- ↑ USA Today, "Harris makes history as first Black woman, Asian American presidential nominee," August 2, 2024
- ↑ ABC News, "DNC to nominate Biden and Harris to bypass Ohio ballot issues," May 28, 2024
- ↑ The New York Times, "Democrats Set Aug. 1 for Harris Nomination Vote," July 24, 2024
- ↑ CBS News, "Kamala Harris closer to being nominee as DNC approves early virtual roll call vote," July 24, 2024
- ↑ DNC, "DNC and DNCC Chairs Announce Results of Presidential Nominating Petition Process and Opening of Virtual Roll Call on August 1," July 30, 2024
- ↑ X, "Biden on July 21, 2024," accessed July 21, 2024
- ↑ Tennessee Secretary of State, "Key Dates for the 2024 Election Cycle," accessed May 15, 2023
- ↑ The Green Papers, "Tennessee Republican," accessed May 15, 2023
- ↑ The Green Papers, "Tennessee Republican," accessed May 15, 2023
- ↑ The Hill, "RNC votes to hold first presidential debate in Milwaukee," February 23, 2023
- ↑ Pew Research Center, "Few former presidents have run for their old jobs – or anything else – after leaving office,' November 16, 2022
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