The 2024 election is taking place in the wake of a generational surge in inflation. Even as inflation subsides and the Federal Reserve cut rates, Republicans blame Vice President Harris and the Democrats for lingering high prices. Of course, presidents and lawmakers do not set interest rates, making the Fed an attractive target for both parties seeking to deflect voters’ blame.
Neither party platform mentions the central bank nor details views about how the Fed should go about setting interest rates. But both nominees have revealed their stance on this critical economic issue. Former President Donald Trump suggests central bankers should be more responsive to a president’s views about the appropriate level of interest rates. Harris endorses more conventional respect for Fed autonomy.
Signals that Trump would pressure the Fed
During Trump’s term in the White House, he routinely pressured the Fed and his hand-picked Fed chair, Jerome Powell, to lower interest rates, foreshadowing how he might approach the Fed in a second term. Presidents before Bill Clinton sometimes pushed the Fed for lower rates when the economy soured. In contrast, Trump lashed out at Powell and his colleagues even when the Fed met its congressional mandate to sustain a robust jobs market and keep prices stable.
New data capture Trump’s persistent populist pressure on the Fed. Collecting every New York Times article that mentions Trump and Powell and interest rates over the course of the Trump presidency, we count the number of stories each month that mention Trump interjections on monetary policy. The figure below shows the numbers of monthly dovish or hawkish signals (lowering or increasing the cost of money, respectively).
Commentary
Candidates’ contrasting plans for the Federal Reserve
October 22, 2024