Figure 3 Forecasts with best model in-sample up to 2050 and comparison with ERC projections
Related Figures (6)
Following in Fig. 2, the projections profiles provided by ERC through the PDE 2014-2023 and PNE 205( reports are presented. The main difference found when comparing the PDE and the PNE is that for the second survey, the projections made for the year 2020 (164.73 TWh) are more pessimistic than those performed by the PDE (168.37 TWh). This may have occurred due to the fact that the year 2013 was bellow ERC expectations while for the PNE, the year 2013 is given as done. In this paper will be analyze the residential electricity consumption series in Brazil. The historical data is annual, between 1995 and 2013, have been obtained from the ERC site, measured in TWh. In addition to the consumption series it will be also analyzed, the projections provided by PDE 2014-2023 and PNE 2050. Table 1. PDE 2014-2023 expected consumption. Table 2. PNE 2050 expected consumption. The next step, after fitting, is forecast up to 2050, with the graphics results presented in Fig. 3. Is also present in this graph the ERC projections, and comparing the values predicted by the exponential smoothing models with the expected by PDE and PNE is noticed that Holt drew near the expected, but the Standard and Damped methods overestimated both surveys. Table 3. Hyper parameters and MAPE with Holt, Standard and Damped methods. Table 5. Optimized hyper parameters and MAPE in sample with Damped Pegels. Forecasts with optimized hyper parameters Fig. 4. Forecasts with optimized hyper parameters up to 2050 and comparison with ERC projections.