NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

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A Moderate Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is forecast for Fri (03/14)

A regional outbreak of severe storms is likely over the Lower/Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valleys and Lower Ohio Valley late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread damaging winds with gusts from 70 to 90 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size will be possible.

For additional details, see the latest Day 2 Convective Outlook.

A severe weather outbreak is expected on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes are possible on Saturday afternoon and evening, centered on eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Widespread damaging wind swaths and scattered large hail are likely.

For additional details, see the latest Day 3 Convective Outlook.

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast today. See details...

Extremely critical fire weather conditions are forecast on Fri (03/14). See details...

SPC Products Overview

Hazard	Thu (03/13)	Fri (03/14)	Sat (03/15)	Sun (03/16)	Mon (03/17)	Tue (03/18)	Wed (03/19)	Thu (03/20)
Severe	No Severe	Moderate	Moderate	Severe	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area
Fire	Critical	Extreme	Critical	No Area	Critical	Critical	No Area	No Area

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Severe Weather Climatology (1982-2011)

Any Severe Probabilities: 14 Mar

Tornado Probabilities: 14 Mar

Damaging Wind Probabilities: 14 Mar

Severe Hail Probabilities: 14 Mar

Significant Tornado Probabilities: 14 Mar

Significant Wind Probabilities: 14 Mar

Significant Hail Probabilities: 14 Mar

More severe weather climatology data here.

Today's Storm Report Trend


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Full-size plot here.

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Page last modified: March 13 2025 12:27 UTC

Wildfire Climatology (1992-2015)

100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 14 Mar

300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 14 Mar

1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 14 Mar

5000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 14 Mar

More wildfire climatology data here.

Latest SPC Publications

Edwards, R., and R.L. Thompson, 2024: Right-Moving Supercell Tornadogenesis during Interaction with a Left-Moving Supercell's Rear-Flank Outflow. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [15153K PDF] (supplemental radar loop, standard enhancements [27170K MP4]), (supplemental radar loop, colorblind enhancements [33950K MP4])
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2023: A Historical Overview on the Science of Derechos. Part II: Parent Storm Structure, Environmental Conditions, and History of Numerical Forecasts. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [10595K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2023: A Historical Overview on the Science of Derechos. Part I: Identification, Climatology, and Societal Impacts. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [6899K PDF]
Thompson, R.L., 2023: A Comparison of Right-Moving Supercell and Quasi-Linear Convective System Tornadoes in the Contiguous United States 2003-21. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [4539K PDF]
Gallo, B.T., K.A. Wilson, J.J. Choate, K. Knopfmeier, P. Skinner, B. Roberts^*, P.L. Heinselman, I.L. Jirak, and A.J. Clark, 2022: Exploring the Watch-to-Warning Space: Experimental Outlook Performance during the 2019 Spring Forecasting Experiment in NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [4328K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., and W.A. Gallus Jr., 2022: On the Changes in Convection-Allowing WRF Forecasts of MCS Evolution due to Decreases in Model Horizontal and Vertical Grid Spacing. Part II: Impacts on QPFs. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [5607K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., and W.A. Gallus Jr., 2022: On the Changes in Convection-Allowing WRF Forecasts of MCS Evolution due to Decreases in Model Horizontal and Vertical Grid Spacing. Part I: Changes in Cold Pool Evolution. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [3655K PDF]
Harrison, D.R., M.S. Elliott, I.L. Jirak, and P.T. Marsh, 2022: Utilizing the High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast System to Produce Calibrated Probabilistic Thunderstorm Guidance. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [2549K PDF]
Find more research articles at the SPC publication archive.

Latest SPC Case Archive

Mar 05, 2025	Tornado: 1	Wind: 128	Hail: 0

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