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Testing the significance of calendar effects

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Reinhard Hansen
  • Asger Lunde
  • James M. Nason
Abstract
This paper studies tests of calendar effects in equity returns. It is necessary to control for all possible calendar effects to avoid spurious results. The authors contribute to the calendar effects literature and its significance with a test for calendar-specific anomalies that conditions on the nuisance of possible calendar effects. Thus, their approach to test for calendar effects produces robust data-mining results. Unfortunately, attempts to control for a large number of possible calendar effects have the downside of diminishing the power of the test, making it more difficult to detect actual anomalies. The authors show that our test achieves good power properties because it exploits the correlation structure of (excess) returns specific to the calendar effect being studied. We implement the test with bootstrap methods and apply it to stock indices from Denmark, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Bootstrap p-values reveal that calendar effects are significant for returns in most of these equity markets, but end-of-the-year effects are predominant. It also appears that, beginning in the late 1980s, calendar effects have diminished except in small-cap stock indices.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Reinhard Hansen & Asger Lunde & James M. Nason, 2005. "Testing the significance of calendar effects," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2005-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2005-02
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    File URL: https://www.frbatlanta.org/-/media/documents/research/publications/wp/2005/wp0502.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alex Plastun, 2016. "Calendar Anomalies in the Ukrainian Stock Market," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1573, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Chatzitzisi, Evanthia & Fountas, Stilianos & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2021. "Another look at calendar anomalies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 823-840.
    3. Ayman Abdalmajeed Ahmad Al-Smadi & Mahmoud Khalid Almsafir & Nur Hanis Hazwani Binti Husni, 2018. "Trends And Calendar Effects In Malaysia’S Stock Market," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 13(2), pages 15-22, June.
    4. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Razvan & Nistor, Costel, 2012. "Holiday effects during quiet and turbulent times," MPRA Paper 41625, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Mar 2012.
    5. Cho, Young-Hyun & Linton, Oliver & Whang, Yoon-Jae, 2007. "Are there Monday effects in stock returns: A stochastic dominance approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 736-755, December.
    6. Apergis, Nicholas & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Can (unusual) weather conditions in New York predict South African stock returns?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 377-386.
    7. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Razvan & Nistor, Costel, 2012. "The Halloween effect during quiet and turbulent times," MPRA Paper 41539, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Sep 2012.
    8. Alt, Raimund & Fortin, Ines & Weinberger, Simon, 2011. "The Monday effect revisited: An alternative testing approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 447-460, June.
    9. Hudson, Robert S. & Gregoriou, Andros, 2015. "Calculating and comparing security returns is harder than you think: A comparison between logarithmic and simple returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 151-162.
    10. Shynkevich, Andrei, 2012. "Performance of technical analysis in growth and small cap segments of the US equity market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 193-208.
    11. Atanasova, Christina V. & Hudson, Robert S., 2010. "Technical trading rules and calendar anomalies -- Are they the same phenomena?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 128-130, February.
    12. Tsiakas, Ilias, 2008. "Overnight information and stochastic volatility: A study of European and US stock exchanges," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 251-268, February.
    13. John C. Frain, 2008. "Maximum Likelihood Estimates of Regression Coefficients with alpha-stable residuals and Day of Week effects in Total Returns on Equity Indices," Trinity Economics Papers tep0108, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics, revised May 2008.
    14. Li, Kun & Cursio, Joseph D. & Jiang, Mengfei & Liang, Xi, 2019. "The significance of calendar effects in the electricity market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 487-494.
    15. Chowdhury, Anup & Uddin, Moshfique & Anderson, Keith, 2022. "Trading behaviour and market sentiment: Firm-level evidence from an emerging Islamic market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    16. Boubaker, Sabri & Essaddam, Naceur & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Saadi, Samir, 2017. "On the robustness of week-day effect to error distributional assumption: International evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 114-130.
    17. Dichtl, Hubert & Drobetz, Wolfgang, 2014. "Are stock markets really so inefficient? The case of the “Halloween Indicator”," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 112-121.

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